What would a new Blue wall look like?
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  What would a new Blue wall look like?
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Sea-Spit
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« on: December 02, 2021, 01:58:18 AM »

Let's say it's the 2040 election. What do you think the media would consider to be the new "Blue Wall" at that point in time?
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #1 on: December 02, 2021, 11:49:53 AM »

I'll include the Red Wall too for fun.

Georgia is firmly in the Democratic column. Minnesota gives Democrats a scare in 2032 but still votes Democratic in every election. Maine, New Mexico, and New Hampshire become swing states. NE-02, assuming no egregious redistricting in 2030, is solidly Democratic as well.

Democrats' geography problem in Wisconsin finally catches up with them, and the state becomes out of reach by 2040. Florida has become a Republican stronghold due to a second surge of Cuban refugees.

Demographics aren't destiny, but they have certainly made Louisiana and South Carolina competitive. Similarly, a surge in college-educated whites gives Democrats a fighting chance in Alaska and Kansas.

Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Michigan, and Arizona remain swing states for a variety of reasons. Democrats finally won Texas in 2036, and it is considered to be the most important state ahead of 2040.

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Agonized-Statism
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« Reply #2 on: December 02, 2021, 12:08:17 PM »

Some kind of Sun Belt stack. IMO, a corridor of high-growth Western states battered by climate change, shaped profoundly by new Californian and Latin American residents, and the epicenter of a new kind of Democrat who is both hawkish on a level unseen since the neocons and somewhat progressive domestically in the name of Cold War II competition. This wall could also include Eastern strongholds like Virginia and Georgia, but I assume "Blue Wall" implies geographic continuity.



Like the original Blue Wall, margins vary, but Democrats can generally count on these states and always seem to win coin tosses (like the Blue Wall in 2004).
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Xing
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« Reply #3 on: December 02, 2021, 01:04:01 PM »



Obviously the one and only SUNBELT STACK will save the freiwal from the inevitability of death and force Republicans to ßtop playing.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #4 on: December 02, 2021, 01:48:31 PM »

California, Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado, Texas, and maybe Utah.

Hopefully by 2032.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #5 on: December 02, 2021, 03:12:36 PM »

A Dem EC advantage?  In this era, it would have to come from TX voting like MN and GA voting like VA.
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If my soul was made of stone
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« Reply #6 on: December 02, 2021, 07:22:56 PM »
« Edited: December 02, 2021, 07:56:27 PM by A Very Spiritual Man (and a vegetarian) »

Demographics aren't destiny, but they have certainly made Louisiana and South Carolina competitive.

Dems have been consistently bleeding in the rural areas and smaller metros of Louisiana since 2000, and modest gains in what are still heavily Republican suburbs aren't enough to offset that given the state's population distribution. I don't see it becoming competitive anytime soon unless some great unforeseen circumstance causes mass rural depopulation (faster sea level rise than expected, catastrophic Mississippi River flooding, etc). I doubt that the redder urban areas and suburbs of South Carolina will gain the appeal to invite needed diversification as well, and rural bleeding is also a problem there.
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TheReckoning
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« Reply #7 on: December 02, 2021, 10:20:32 PM »

Demographics aren't destiny, but they have certainly made Louisiana and South Carolina competitive.

Dems have been consistently bleeding in the rural areas and smaller metros of Louisiana since 2000, and modest gains in what are still heavily Republican suburbs aren't enough to offset that given the state's population distribution. I don't see it becoming competitive anytime soon unless some great unforeseen circumstance causes mass rural depopulation (faster sea level rise than expected, catastrophic Mississippi River flooding, etc). I doubt that the redder urban areas and suburbs of South Carolina will gain the appeal to invite needed diversification as well, and rural bleeding is also a problem there.

Wouldn’t fast sea level rise lead to mass depopulation of urban areas like New Orleans first?
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #8 on: December 06, 2021, 06:42:45 AM »

I'll include the Red Wall too for fun.

Georgia is firmly in the Democratic column. Minnesota gives Democrats a scare in 2032 but still votes Democratic in every election. Maine, New Mexico, and New Hampshire become swing states. NE-02, assuming no egregious redistricting in 2030, is solidly Democratic as well.

Democrats' geography problem in Wisconsin finally catches up with them, and the state becomes out of reach by 2040. Florida has become a Republican stronghold due to a second surge of Cuban refugees.

Demographics aren't destiny, but they have certainly made Louisiana and South Carolina competitive. Similarly, a surge in college-educated whites gives Democrats a fighting chance in Alaska and Kansas.

Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Michigan, and Arizona remain swing states for a variety of reasons. Democrats finally won Texas in 2036, and it is considered to be the most important state ahead of 2040.



Biden won GA by the same margin he won WI
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #9 on: December 06, 2021, 10:44:09 AM »

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Schiff for Senate
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« Reply #10 on: December 06, 2021, 11:09:57 AM »



Probably this, except I'd replace NC with MN.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #11 on: December 15, 2021, 10:24:29 AM »



Probably this, except I'd replace NC with MN.

Well, you may subtract NC, but I wouldn't add MN. The map assumes there's a further R-trend among WWC voters and Trump alrealy came relatively close in 2016. Another GOP candidate winning the NPV or at least coming close to it can carry MN. The only Midwestern state remaining in the Blue Wall is IL because Greater Chicago just prevents the GOP from winning statewide.
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Person Man
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« Reply #12 on: December 15, 2021, 10:29:35 AM »



Probably this, except I'd replace NC with MN.

Well, you may subtract NC, but I wouldn't add MN. The map assumes there's a further R-trend among WWC voters and Trump alrealy came relatively close in 2016. Another GOP candidate winning the NPV or at least coming close to it can carry MN. The only Midwestern state remaining in the Blue Wall is IL because Greater Chicago just prevents the GOP from winning statewide.

Democrats have to do better in the North Carolina if the Midwest becomes non-competitive outside of Illinois.
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chalmetteowl
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« Reply #13 on: December 15, 2021, 09:52:16 PM »

Demographics aren't destiny, but they have certainly made Louisiana and South Carolina competitive.

Dems have been consistently bleeding in the rural areas and smaller metros of Louisiana since 2000, and modest gains in what are still heavily Republican suburbs aren't enough to offset that given the state's population distribution. I don't see it becoming competitive anytime soon unless some great unforeseen circumstance causes mass rural depopulation (faster sea level rise than expected, catastrophic Mississippi River flooding, etc). I doubt that the redder urban areas and suburbs of South Carolina will gain the appeal to invite needed diversification as well, and rural bleeding is also a problem there.

Wouldn’t fast sea level rise lead to mass depopulation of urban areas like New Orleans first?

All of our metro areas are a little bit inland from the Gulf... Few people live where sea level rise would affect them in the near future or outside of levee protection
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Schiff for Senate
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« Reply #14 on: December 16, 2021, 07:50:56 PM »



Probably this, except I'd replace NC with MN.

Well, you may subtract NC, but I wouldn't add MN. The map assumes there's a further R-trend among WWC voters and Trump alrealy came relatively close in 2016. Another GOP candidate winning the NPV or at least coming close to it can carry MN. The only Midwestern state remaining in the Blue Wall is IL because Greater Chicago just prevents the GOP from winning statewide.

Twin City suburbs are growing and liberalizing, while Greater MN (which is trending rightward) is declining in population. Even in 2020, MN trended pretty noticeably leftward. I think it will be safe to include in the blue wall, even if it is diceier than IL and a lot of other blue wall states.
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #15 on: December 17, 2021, 02:41:44 AM »
« Edited: December 17, 2021, 02:56:26 AM by Del Tachi »



this is an exact "278 freiwal" based on 2020 Census apportionment

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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #16 on: December 17, 2021, 03:04:17 AM »

I’m more confident about AK being part of the "blue wall" by then than many other states currently considered solidly Democratic (e.g. NM, IL, HI, RI), yet no one in this thread has even mentioned/included AK in their predictions. Interesting.
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Pericles
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« Reply #17 on: December 17, 2021, 05:19:28 AM »

The old blue wall wasn't real in the first place though.
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