kwabbit
Sr. Member
Posts: 2,799
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« on: December 03, 2021, 02:26:10 AM » |
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« edited: December 03, 2021, 02:29:39 AM by kwabbit »
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I think it'll be around an R +6 Generic Ballot. That would be a 8-10 point shift across the country from 2020 and a 13-15 point shift from 2018. I don't think most people realize how grim that will look in the Midwest for Democrats. If anything I feel like I was being conservative in my predictions. I can easily see Republicans winning MI, PA, and MI Gov by 5 points each.
For my hotter takes:
Oregon Lean D- Brown and her administration are deeply unpopular and Oregonians are primed to change course after many decades of Democratic rule. Oregon is a pretty blue state, but Brown only won by 6 in 2018. She would certainly lose in 2022 if she was eligible, instead another Democrat will run and be a moderate favorite.
New Mexico Lean D- New Mexico isn't that blue and it's an R wave environment. Simple as that. Ronchetti is a fine candidate as well.
MI/PA Tossup- Whitmer is polarizing but not unpopular, she has a decent chance to hold on. In PA, Republicans seem prime to nominate an idiot in Barletta while the Dems run a good politician in Shapiro. Generic R v. Generic D it would lean R.
WI Lean R- Evers hasn't built broad support and Kleefisch isn't a disaster. In this environment it's hard to see Evers winning after Biden just squeaked it out.
Maine/CT Lean D- Maine isn't that blue and Mills hasn't built broad support. LePage is polarizing but he has won statewide twice. In CT Lamont is currently popular but he just barely won in 2018. I think the dynamic will be similar to NJ Gov, where he'll lose his popular support and it will be close on election night.
GA Tossup- The state is certainly inelastic and trending D, but Kemp would be more easily favored if Trump would shut up. Trump has the potential to depress rural turnout enough for Abrams to win.
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