Current gubernatorial ratings

[NewYorkExpress]

Alabama: Safe R (Even if Kay Ivey loses a primary, it's hard to imagine any Democrat being competitive here)

Alaska: Lean I (Mike Dunleavey is very unpopular, and I think that his situation is similar to Lisa Murkowski's in that the top four primary will help, but it might not be enough to save him. What doesn't help him, is that in Les Gara and Bill Walker, he's currently facing much stronger oppsition than Murkowski, hence why I think he's more likely to lose than she is)

Arizona: Tilt R (In literally any other year, Katie Hobbs would win easily. However, 2022 is likely to be Republican wave, and Arizona just isn't Democratic enough for Hobbs to win, barring a massive upset in the Republican primary. I think she beats Kari Lake, but she'd lose to Matt Salmon or Kimberly Yee, and probably by double digits to both)

Arkansas: Safe R

California: Safe D (I think one of the Republicans running will get to the runoff, the question is will it be Elder again, or Falcouner or Jenner. Either way, the recall tells me that Gavin Newsom isn't in any danger)

Colorado: Lean D (If Republicans were able to recruit a stronger candidate, they might be able to flip the seat. It doesn't look they'll be able to do so, however)

Connecticut: Likely D (possibly a massive recruiting failure for Republicans)

Florida: Likely R (Democrats have two very good recruits in Charlie Crist and Nikki Fried (even if I wish Crist would defend his House seat or run against Marco Rubio again), but it likely won't matter. This race should slide into the Safe R column by Easter.

Georgia: Tilt D (Stacey Abrams's entry is a massive boost for Democrats, and coupled with Brian Kemp's unpopularity with Republican voters, instantly gives her a narrow edge. Still, she faces strong headwinds that she didn't have to deal with in 2018)

Hawaii: Safe D

Idaho: Safe R (I wouldn't be surprised if Brad Little finished third in the Republican Primary)

Illinois: Likely D (If Illinois Republicans can convince any of the non-Mary Miller members of their statewide delegation to run-especially Adam Kinzinger, they might actually have a chance at knocking off J.B Pritzker)

Iowa: Likely R (Kim Reynolds isn't particularly popular, but she isn't particularly vulnerable in a Republican wave either)

Kansas: Safe R (The only question is how much Laura Kelly will lose to Derek Schimdt by)

Maine: Tilt R (Janet Mills hasn't exactly excited the progressive base, and Paul Lepage has experience winning elections in Maine)

Maryland: Safe D (The Democratic Primary is going to be fun)

Massachusetts: Safe D (Charlie Baker's retirement dramatically changes the game here. Along with Maryland, this is the single easiest pickup for Democrats this cycle, especially since Karyn Polito also isn't running)

Michigan: Lean R (Unless Biden's approval ratings climb dramatically, Gretchen Whitmer will lose)

Minnesota: Lean D (Tim Walz gets saved by the Minnesota GOP consistently nominating crazy people)

Nebraska: Safe R

Nevada: Lean R (See Gretchen Whitmer)

New Hampshire Safe R (Chris Sununu's decison to run for reelection rather than the Senate probably saved Maggie Hassan and secured his reelection. Maybe he runs against Shaheen in 2024?)

New Mexico: Lean D (New Mexico's just a touch too Democratic for Lujan Grisham to be an underdog)

Ohio: Likely R (even if DeWine loses his primary)

Oklahoma: Safe R

Oregon: Lean D

Pennsylvania: Lean R (See Michigan and Nevada)

Rhode Island: Safe D

South Carolina: Safe R (Joe Cunningham would be a fantastic recruit in a D wave)

South Dakota: Safe R

Tennessee: Safe R

Texas: Lean R (Texas is dramatically shifting to the left, and that doesn't seem likely to change. The wave gives Abbott a modest victory, but if 2022 was a D wave he'd probably lose)

Vermont: Lean D (This is going to be controversial, but I think Vermont Democrats bring in a top-tier candidate, maybe T.J Donovan to run against Phil Scott, and that candidate wins)

Wisconsin: Lean R (See Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania)

Wyoming: Safe R