Current gubernatorial ratings
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  Current gubernatorial ratings
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Author Topic: Current gubernatorial ratings  (Read 1107 times)
Ferguson97
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« on: December 02, 2021, 12:02:48 AM »



Vermont's rating is based on the assumption that Phil Scott will run for re-election.

Georgia and Pennsylvania are considered "pure tossup", but if I'm pushed to make a decision then I would give a slight edge to the Democrats in Georgia and a slight edge to the Republicans in Pennsylvania.
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S019
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« Reply #1 on: December 02, 2021, 12:20:12 AM »



Tilt shading indicates a tossup, and how I think said tossup currently leans, as for the leans, Kansas is closer to Likely R than Tossup, MN/ME/GA are closer to Tossup than Likely D, and RI is closer to Likely D than Tossup.
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Arizona Iced Tea
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« Reply #2 on: December 02, 2021, 12:31:31 AM »



Oregon and Colorado should go Dem, but depending on the wave size they could be competitive, especially with what Brown is doing up there.
NM is going to be closer than a lot of people think and Ronchetti is a good candidate
Connecticut was close even in 2018, and Rhode Island will be a bit competitive
DeSantis will win but it will be pretty close
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President Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
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« Reply #3 on: December 02, 2021, 12:39:05 AM »

ME: Lean D
NH: Safe R if Sununu runs, Lean R if not
VT: Safe R if Scott runs, Lean D if not
MA: Likely D
RI: Likely D
CT: Likely D
NY: Safe D
PA: Tossup, R-favoring
MD: Safe D
SC: Safe R
OH: Likely R
GA: Lean D
FL: Likely R
MI: Tossup, D-favoring
TN: Safe R
AL: Safe R
WI: Lean R
IL: Safe D
MN: Likely D
IA: Likely R
AR: Safe R
SD: Safe R
NE: Safe R
KS: Lean R
OK: Safe R
TX: Likely R
WY: Safe R
CO: Safe D
NM: Likely D
ID: Safe R
AZ: Tossup, D-favoring
NV: Lean D
OR: Likely D
CA: Safe D
HI: Safe D
AK: Likely R
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #4 on: December 02, 2021, 01:16:25 AM »
« Edited: December 02, 2021, 01:21:17 AM by MT Treasurer »



Of the Toss-up races, NV and MI are most likely to flip to the GOP (and I’m fairly close to moving them to Lean R anyway).
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #5 on: December 02, 2021, 02:37:49 AM »



Of the Toss-up races, NV and MI are most likely to flip to the GOP (and I’m fairly close to moving them to Lean R anyway).

Kelly was tied with Smith and no poll has Evers losing
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andjey
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« Reply #6 on: December 02, 2021, 07:27:44 AM »



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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #7 on: December 02, 2021, 08:04:42 AM »

SISOLAK isn't losing to Heller
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Xing
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« Reply #8 on: December 02, 2021, 12:23:06 PM »



I debated whether Michigan should be Toss-Up or Lean R, but I went with Lean R, because I don't see Whitmer surviving this kind of environment or overperforming Evers by much (if at all.)
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #9 on: December 02, 2021, 05:03:01 PM »

The last KS poll had Kelly tied
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President Johnson
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« Reply #10 on: December 02, 2021, 05:16:28 PM »

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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #11 on: December 02, 2021, 05:17:09 PM »

Kelly cam win this, why does Ferguson thinks WI is Lean R he's a D not R
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President Johnson
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« Reply #12 on: December 02, 2021, 05:20:43 PM »

Kelly cam win this, why does Ferguson thinks WI is Lean R he's a D not R

Lean Republican can certainly mean Kelly has a chance of winning. At this point I'd say her odds of winning reelection are around 40%.
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Suburban Republican
omelott
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« Reply #13 on: December 02, 2021, 05:39:33 PM »



Pretty simple map. Democrats pick up the governorships in Maryland and Massachusets, Republicans pick up the governorships in Kansas, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Nevada, resulting in a net gain of 3 for Republicans. Maryland is the easier pickup for Democrats due to Massachuses' historical tendency to elect Republican governor. Kansas is the easiest pickup for Republicans due to its republican lean, with Wisconsin and Pennsylvania being the second and third easiest due to Evers' unpopularity and Democrats not having the incumbency advantage in Pennsylvania.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #14 on: December 02, 2021, 05:43:48 PM »



Pretty simple map. Democrats pick up the governorships in Maryland and Massachusets, Republicans pick up the governorships in Kansas, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Nevada, resulting in a net gain of 3 for Republicans. Maryland is the easier pickup for Democrats due to Massachuses' historical tendency to elect Republican governor. Kansas is the easiest pickup for Republicans due to its republican lean, with Wisconsin and Pennsylvania being the second and third easiest due to Evers' unpopularity and Democrats not having the incumbency advantage in Pennsylvania.

Pretty much what I’m thinking.  Maine could fall if things get bad enough.
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Continential
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« Reply #15 on: December 02, 2021, 06:05:57 PM »


Green means that it is somewhat competitive
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #16 on: December 02, 2021, 07:17:04 PM »


Green means that it is somewhat competitive


... Oregon and Alaska, but not Texas or Florida?
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Continential
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« Reply #17 on: December 02, 2021, 07:46:23 PM »


Green means that it is somewhat competitive


... Oregon and Alaska, but not Texas or Florida?
I accidently clicked on Oregon and polling showed Alaska to be tied with rcv.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #18 on: December 02, 2021, 08:10:24 PM »




Here isy bold Predictions, since Rs are making hack maps, Beto and Crist are only six back
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Arizona Iced Tea
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« Reply #19 on: December 02, 2021, 11:54:43 PM »




Here isy bold Predictions, since Rs are making hack maps, Beto and Crist are only six back

Beto couldn't win in a D+8 environment last time, how is he going to win in an R wave year especially after those gun comments?
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« Reply #20 on: December 03, 2021, 01:11:47 AM »

My current ratings, with some hot takes sprinkled in there.
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kwabbit
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« Reply #21 on: December 03, 2021, 02:26:10 AM »
« Edited: December 03, 2021, 02:29:39 AM by kwabbit »



I think it'll be around an R +6 Generic Ballot. That would be a 8-10 point shift across the country from 2020 and a 13-15 point shift from 2018. I don't think most people realize how grim that will look in the Midwest for Democrats. If anything I feel like I was being conservative in my predictions. I can easily see Republicans winning MI, PA, and MI Gov by 5 points each.

For my hotter takes:

Oregon Lean D- Brown and her administration are deeply unpopular and Oregonians are primed to change course after many decades of Democratic rule. Oregon is a pretty blue state, but Brown only won by 6 in 2018. She would certainly lose in 2022 if she was eligible, instead another Democrat will run and be a moderate favorite.

New Mexico Lean D- New Mexico isn't that blue and it's an R wave environment. Simple as that. Ronchetti is a fine candidate as well.

MI/PA Tossup- Whitmer is polarizing but not unpopular, she has a decent chance to hold on. In PA, Republicans seem prime to nominate an idiot in Barletta while the Dems run a good politician in Shapiro. Generic R v. Generic D it would lean R.

WI Lean R- Evers hasn't built broad support and Kleefisch isn't a disaster. In this environment it's hard to see Evers winning after Biden just squeaked it out.

Maine/CT Lean D- Maine isn't that blue and Mills hasn't built broad support. LePage is polarizing but he has won statewide twice. In CT Lamont is currently popular but he just barely won in 2018. I think the dynamic will be similar to NJ Gov, where he'll lose his popular support and it will be close on election night.

GA Tossup- The state is certainly inelastic and trending D, but Kemp would be more easily favored if Trump would shut up. Trump has the potential to depress rural turnout enough for Abrams to win.
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #22 on: December 03, 2021, 02:57:13 AM »

Alabama: Safe R (Even if Kay Ivey loses a primary, it's hard to imagine any Democrat being competitive here)

Alaska: Lean I (Mike Dunleavey is very unpopular, and I think that his situation is similar to Lisa Murkowski's in that the top four primary will help, but it might not be enough to save him. What doesn't help him, is that in Les Gara and Bill Walker, he's currently facing much stronger oppsition than Murkowski, hence why I think he's more likely to lose than she is)

Arizona: Tilt R (In literally any other year, Katie Hobbs would win easily. However, 2022 is likely to be Republican wave, and Arizona just isn't Democratic enough for Hobbs to win, barring a massive upset in the Republican primary. I think she beats Kari Lake, but she'd lose to Matt Salmon or Kimberly Yee, and probably by double digits to both)

Arkansas: Safe R

California: Safe D (I think one of the Republicans running will get to the runoff, the question is will it be Elder again, or Falcouner or Jenner. Either way, the recall tells me that Gavin Newsom isn't in any danger)

Colorado: Lean D (If Republicans were able to recruit a stronger candidate, they might be able to flip the seat. It doesn't look they'll be able to do so, however)

Connecticut: Likely D (possibly a massive recruiting failure for Republicans)

Florida: Likely R (Democrats have two very good recruits in Charlie Crist and Nikki Fried (even if I wish Crist would defend his House seat or run against Marco Rubio again), but it likely won't matter. This race should slide into the Safe R column by Easter.

Georgia: Tilt D (Stacey Abrams's entry is a massive boost for Democrats, and coupled with Brian Kemp's unpopularity with Republican voters, instantly gives her a narrow edge. Still, she faces strong headwinds that she didn't have to deal with in 2018)

Hawaii: Safe D

Idaho: Safe R (I wouldn't be surprised if Brad Little finished third in the Republican Primary)

Illinois: Likely D (If Illinois Republicans can convince any of the non-Mary Miller members of their statewide delegation to run-especially Adam Kinzinger, they might actually have a chance at knocking off J.B Pritzker)

Iowa: Likely R (Kim Reynolds isn't particularly popular, but she isn't particularly vulnerable in a Republican wave either)

Kansas: Safe R (The only question is how much Laura Kelly will lose to Derek Schimdt by)

Maine: Tilt R (Janet Mills hasn't exactly excited the progressive base, and Paul Lepage has experience winning elections in Maine)

Maryland: Safe D (The Democratic Primary is going to be fun)

Massachusetts: Safe D (Charlie Baker's retirement dramatically changes the game here. Along with Maryland, this is the single easiest pickup for Democrats this cycle, especially since Karyn Polito also isn't running)

Michigan: Lean R (Unless Biden's approval ratings climb dramatically, Gretchen Whitmer will lose)

Minnesota: Lean D (Tim Walz gets saved by the Minnesota GOP consistently nominating crazy people)

Nebraska: Safe R

Nevada: Lean R (See Gretchen Whitmer)

New Hampshire Safe R (Chris Sununu's decison to run for reelection rather than the Senate probably saved Maggie Hassan and secured his reelection. Maybe he runs against Shaheen in 2024?)

New Mexico: Lean D (New Mexico's just a touch too Democratic for Lujan Grisham to be an underdog)

Ohio: Likely R (even if DeWine loses his primary)

Oklahoma: Safe R

Oregon: Lean D

Pennsylvania: Lean R (See Michigan and Nevada)

Rhode Island: Safe D

South Carolina: Safe R (Joe Cunningham would be a fantastic recruit in a D wave)

South Dakota: Safe R

Tennessee: Safe R

Texas: Lean R (Texas is dramatically shifting to the left, and that doesn't seem likely to change. The wave gives Abbott a modest victory, but if 2022 was a D wave he'd probably lose)

Vermont: Lean D (This is going to be controversial, but I think Vermont Democrats bring in a top-tier candidate, maybe T.J Donovan to run against Phil Scott, and that candidate wins)

Wisconsin: Lean R (See Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania)

Wyoming: Safe R


 
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #23 on: December 03, 2021, 02:59:59 AM »
« Edited: December 03, 2021, 03:03:04 AM by Mr. MANDELA BARNES »

My map isn't gonna happen but Beto, Crist are only six pts back and Biden is creeping close to 50 we're gonna have higher turnout than 21, Biden problem is with younger people, because they want things open in Covid and Young people aren't gonna vote R, Rs are trying to shutdown the Govt but Biden losing the  304 blue wall like WI, PA, MI, NV isn't gonna happen either the Rs haven't cracked the Blue wall since 2016

Biden did help Obama win 376 EC votes in 2008/12 lol Biden won WI, PA and MI 3 time's
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« Reply #24 on: December 03, 2021, 11:41:08 AM »

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