Current Status of State Legislatures

[ElectionsGuy]

State Senates



State Houses



Overall Status



24 States have Republican trifectas - Republican governor and Republican state legislative majorities.
14 States have Democratic trifectas - Democratic governor and Democratic state legislative majorities.
3 States have Republican governors but Democratic state legislative supermajorities (MA, MD, VT).
3 States have Democratic governors but Republican state legislative supermajorities (KS, KY, LA).
4 States have Democratic governors but Republican state legislative majorities (MI, NC, PA, WI).
2 States have very closely divided state legislatures where one party control each, and a governor from the same party as the state house majority (MN, VA)

My thoughts for 2022:

 - MA and MD are likely gains for Dem trifectas.
 - NV's Dem trifecta is at serious risk, at least for governor.
 - R's are favorites for KS, MI, PA, and WI governorships to gain R trifectas. NC will continue having Cooper (D) since he just won.
  - MN could easily have both chambers be Republican, and make Walz's governorship a lot harder if he wins re-election (also underrated pickup here)
 - R's have at least a 25% chance or so of picking up one chamber in CO, ME, and NV. NM seems difficult based on current numbers but could see it if the governor race is unexpectedly close.
 - Of all the places Dems can pick off, AZ has the most tenuous R trifecta, similar to what D's have at the national level now. That is probably their best bet, but it's still less likely they'll get a trifecta in 2022 or even gain one chamber.

[Mr.Phips]

State Senates



State Houses



Overall Status



24 States have Republican trifectas - Republican governor and Republican state legislative majorities.
14 States have Democratic trifectas - Democratic governor and Democratic state legislative majorities.
3 States have Republican governors but Democratic state legislative supermajorities (MA, MD, VT).
3 States have Democratic governors but Republican state legislative supermajorities (KS, KY, LA).
4 States have Democratic governors but Republican state legislative majorities (MI, NC, PA, WI).
2 States have very closely divided state legislatures where one party control each, and a governor from the same party as the state house majority (MN, VA)

My thoughts for 2022:

 - MA and MD are likely gains for Dem trifectas.
 - NV's Dem trifecta is at serious risk, at least for governor.
 - R's are favorites for KS, MI, PA, and WI governorships to gain R trifectas. NC will continue having Cooper (D) since he just won.
  - MN could easily have both chambers be Republican, and make Walz's governorship a lot harder if he wins re-election (also underrated pickup here)
 - R's have at least a 25% chance or so of picking up one chamber in CO, ME, and NV. NM seems difficult based on current numbers but could see it if the governor race is unexpectedly close.
 - Of all the places Dems can pick off, AZ has the most tenuous R trifecta, similar to what D's have at the national level now. That is probably their best bet, but it's still less likely they'll get a trifecta in 2022 or even gain one chamber.

Republicans would likely need to be winning the statewide popular vote in Nevada by around 10 points to win a chamber of the legislature there given the lines that Dems drew.  New Mexico will also be tough to win the House assuming Dems draw the lines right.  I think the Maine House could well flip.  In Colorado, the senate is possible, but the House is probably close to impossible.

[David Hume]

State Senates



State Houses



Overall Status



24 States have Republican trifectas - Republican governor and Republican state legislative majorities.
14 States have Democratic trifectas - Democratic governor and Democratic state legislative majorities.
3 States have Republican governors but Democratic state legislative supermajorities (MA, MD, VT).
3 States have Democratic governors but Republican state legislative supermajorities (KS, KY, LA).
4 States have Democratic governors but Republican state legislative majorities (MI, NC, PA, WI).
2 States have very closely divided state legislatures where one party control each, and a governor from the same party as the state house majority (MN, VA)

My thoughts for 2022:

 - MA and MD are likely gains for Dem trifectas.
 - NV's Dem trifecta is at serious risk, at least for governor.
 - R's are favorites for KS, MI, PA, and WI governorships to gain R trifectas. NC will continue having Cooper (D) since he just won.
  - MN could easily have both chambers be Republican, and make Walz's governorship a lot harder if he wins re-election (also underrated pickup here)
 - R's have at least a 25% chance or so of picking up one chamber in CO, ME, and NV. NM seems difficult based on current numbers but could see it if the governor race is unexpectedly close.
 - Of all the places Dems can pick off, AZ has the most tenuous R trifecta, similar to what D's have at the national level now. That is probably their best bet, but it's still less likely they'll get a trifecta in 2022 or even gain one chamber.

R may flip OR house as well.

AZ state leg map was drawn by the committee which favored D last time. But this time, the tie-breaker is a R leaner. Depending on how far she wants to go, it's still unlikely for D to flip them.

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

Depressingly homogenous

[ElectionsGuy]

State Senates



State Houses



Overall Status



24 States have Republican trifectas - Republican governor and Republican state legislative majorities.
14 States have Democratic trifectas - Democratic governor and Democratic state legislative majorities.
3 States have Republican governors but Democratic state legislative supermajorities (MA, MD, VT).
3 States have Democratic governors but Republican state legislative supermajorities (KS, KY, LA).
4 States have Democratic governors but Republican state legislative majorities (MI, NC, PA, WI).
2 States have very closely divided state legislatures where one party control each, and a governor from the same party as the state house majority (MN, VA)

My thoughts for 2022:

 - MA and MD are likely gains for Dem trifectas.
 - NV's Dem trifecta is at serious risk, at least for governor.
 - R's are favorites for KS, MI, PA, and WI governorships to gain R trifectas. NC will continue having Cooper (D) since he just won.
  - MN could easily have both chambers be Republican, and make Walz's governorship a lot harder if he wins re-election (also underrated pickup here)
 - R's have at least a 25% chance or so of picking up one chamber in CO, ME, and NV. NM seems difficult based on current numbers but could see it if the governor race is unexpectedly close.
 - Of all the places Dems can pick off, AZ has the most tenuous R trifecta, similar to what D's have at the national level now. That is probably their best bet, but it's still less likely they'll get a trifecta in 2022 or even gain one chamber.

Republicans would likely need to be winning the statewide popular vote in Nevada by around 10 points to win a chamber of the legislature there given the lines that Dems drew.  New Mexico will also be tough to win the House assuming Dems draw the lines right.  I think the Maine House could well flip.  In Colorado, the senate is possible, but the House is probably close to impossible.

I looked at the State Senate proposal. It's not hard to see how R's can win 2 seats Dems currently hold on the outer part of the Vegas area.

[Mr.Phips]

State Senates



State Houses



Overall Status



24 States have Republican trifectas - Republican governor and Republican state legislative majorities.
14 States have Democratic trifectas - Democratic governor and Democratic state legislative majorities.
3 States have Republican governors but Democratic state legislative supermajorities (MA, MD, VT).
3 States have Democratic governors but Republican state legislative supermajorities (KS, KY, LA).
4 States have Democratic governors but Republican state legislative majorities (MI, NC, PA, WI).
2 States have very closely divided state legislatures where one party control each, and a governor from the same party as the state house majority (MN, VA)

My thoughts for 2022:

 - MA and MD are likely gains for Dem trifectas.
 - NV's Dem trifecta is at serious risk, at least for governor.
 - R's are favorites for KS, MI, PA, and WI governorships to gain R trifectas. NC will continue having Cooper (D) since he just won.
  - MN could easily have both chambers be Republican, and make Walz's governorship a lot harder if he wins re-election (also underrated pickup here)
 - R's have at least a 25% chance or so of picking up one chamber in CO, ME, and NV. NM seems difficult based on current numbers but could see it if the governor race is unexpectedly close.
 - Of all the places Dems can pick off, AZ has the most tenuous R trifecta, similar to what D's have at the national level now. That is probably their best bet, but it's still less likely they'll get a trifecta in 2022 or even gain one chamber.

Republicans would likely need to be winning the statewide popular vote in Nevada by around 10 points to win a chamber of the legislature there given the lines that Dems drew.  New Mexico will also be tough to win the House assuming Dems draw the lines right.  I think the Maine House could well flip.  In Colorado, the senate is possible, but the House is probably close to impossible.

I looked at the State Senate proposal. It's not hard to see how R's can win 2 seats Dems currently hold on the outer part of the Vegas area.

I think they can get one of those districts (the 8th), but the 9th went for Biden by 12 points and the Dem incumbent won by double digits there in 2018.   The 6th (Biden +8) isn’t up until 2024.

[Minnesota Mike]

  - MN could easily have both chambers be Republican, and make Walz's governorship a lot harder if he wins re-election (also underrated pickup here)
 

Just as likely Dems end up with the trifecta. Dems only need 3 Senate seats (if the 2 I's continue to caucus with R's) and redistricting should favor them because Dem heavy areas need to add seats.

[Mr.Phips]

  - MN could easily have both chambers be Republican, and make Walz's governorship a lot harder if he wins re-election (also underrated pickup here)
 

Just as likely Dems end up with the trifecta. Dems only need 3 Senate seats (if the 2 I's continue to caucus with R's) and redistricting should favor them because Dem heavy areas need to add seats.

Seems very unlikely given the out state seats in the state house that Dems barely held in 2020 and the very vulnerable St Cloud state senate seat they will have to hold.  I’d rate the state house as Lean R and the state senate as Likely R at this point.

[Minnesota Mike]

  - MN could easily have both chambers be Republican, and make Walz's governorship a lot harder if he wins re-election (also underrated pickup here)
 

Just as likely Dems end up with the trifecta. Dems only need 3 Senate seats (if the 2 I's continue to caucus with R's) and redistricting should favor them because Dem heavy areas need to add seats.

Seems very unlikely given the out state seats in the state house that Dems barely held in 2020 and the very vulnerable St Cloud state senate seat they will have to hold.  I’d rate the state house as Lean R and the state senate as Likely R at this point.

St Cloud senate seat is tossup/lean D. Won't know final numbers until redistricting is done (district unlikely to change much) but it's likely Biden, Walz, Klobuchar and Smith all carried it. 1+ Senate districts (2+ HD) will move from rural areas to the Twin Cites in redistricting because of population changes.  Democrats will likely pick up at least 1 of the 2 Rochester seats. The two Indy (caucus R, elected D) seats on the Iron Range are anybody's guess (at least 1 is very likely to retire).  Senate is 50/50 to switch Dem, House 75-25 to stay Dem.

[Mr.Phips]

  - MN could easily have both chambers be Republican, and make Walz's governorship a lot harder if he wins re-election (also underrated pickup here)
 

Just as likely Dems end up with the trifecta. Dems only need 3 Senate seats (if the 2 I's continue to caucus with R's) and redistricting should favor them because Dem heavy areas need to add seats.

Seems very unlikely given the out state seats in the state house that Dems barely held in 2020 and the very vulnerable St Cloud state senate seat they will have to hold.  I’d rate the state house as Lean R and the state senate as Likely R at this point.

St Cloud senate seat is tossup/lean D. Won't know final numbers until redistricting is done (district unlikely to change much) but it's likely Biden, Walz, Klobuchar and Smith all carried it. 1+ Senate districts (2+ HD) will move from rural areas to the Twin Cites in redistricting because of population changes.  Democrats will likely pick up at least 1 of the 2 Rochester seats. The two Indy (caucus R, elected D) seats on the Iron Range are anybody's guess (at least 1 is very likely to retire).  Senate is 50/50 to stay Dem, House 75-25.

Dems couldn’t pick up either of the Rochester seats in 2020 even when Biden was easily carrying them.

[Minnesota Mike]

Dems couldn’t pick up either of the Rochester seats in 2020 even when Biden was easily carrying them.

Both Rochester area districts are overpopulated any will have to lose some rural red areas making them more Democratic. The only question is if the new map Dem vote sinks one SD entirely within Rochester making it safe D and have the remainder of Rochester combine with rural areas and making a likely R district or if they split Rochester down the middle making 2 lean D seats (The blue city of Rochester has about 1.5 SD's worth of population while the rural areas that surround it are deep red). This is also an area that stampeding left.