How did Reagan win Lackawanna County in 84?

[Asenath Waite]

Even in such a massive landslide year it’s weird that he managed what no other Republican has since. He must have been the last Republican that managed to do well in both Scranton and the outlying areas.

[If my soul was made of stone]

I believe that the mining and industrial areas of NEPA (Lackawanna, Luzerne) began their decline and transition into post-industrial-ism somewhat earlier and more smoothly than the analogous downwardly-mobile coal and steel areas of the southwest that were Fritz's core in the state, and thus had somewhat more of a modern middle-class that was more amenable to Reagan. These people existed in the Pittsburgh metro too, of course, hence why Allegheny County voted more Republican than further-flung Beaver, Fayette, etc., but were outvoted by industrial areas whose decline was then less dire than today, more than the remaining industrial centers of Lackawanna could outvote the more affluent parts of Scranton and its immediate environs.

I don't know enough to say if Pittsburgh encroachment partially replacing the fleeing industrial base played a part in turning counties like Beaver or Washington red in the 21st century compared to the presence of that contingent in Lackawanna, but it's something that I should look into; just a quick look at Census data shows some Beaver municipalities growing slightly between 1990 and 2000, possibly indicating some truth to this conjecture.

Admittedly I'm not an expert on this part of the world, and this is a fair bit of speculation.

[Asenath Waite]

I believe that the mining and industrial areas of NEPA (Lackawanna, Luzerne) began their decline and transition into post-industrial-ism somewhat earlier and more smoothly than the analogous downwardly-mobile coal and steel areas of the southwest that were Fritz's core in the state, and thus had somewhat more of a modern middle-class that was more amenable to Reagan. These people existed in the Pittsburgh metro too, of course, hence why Allegheny County voted more republican than further-flung Beaver, Fayette, etc., but were outvoted by industrial areas whose decline was then less dire than today, more than the remaining industrial centers of Lackawanna could outvote the more affluent parts of Scranton and its immediate environs.

I don't know enough to say if Pittsburgh encroachment partially replacing the fleeing industrial base played a part in turning counties like Beaver or Washington red in the 21st century compared to the presence of that contingent in Lackawanna, but it's something that I should look into; just a quick look at Census data shows some Beaver municipalities growing slightly between 1990 and 2000, possibly indicating some truth to this conjecture.

Admittedly I'm not an expert on this part of the world, and this is a fair bit of speculation.

I think your analysis makes a lot of sense. It’s amazing how at the county level PA looks so radically different in 84 with the exception of Philadelphia and Pittsburgh proper.

I did a medium dive into Beaver County a while back when my curiosity was peaked by an old blog from 2008 which identified it as one of the few non-rural Kerry-McCain counties. One thing I found interesting is that even today Aliquippa went for Biden by a fairy comfortable margin despite being almost as white as the surrounding small towns, even in 2016 there was virtually no swing towards Trump. Sort of similar to Greenfield, MA and (though I’m not sure if it holds as much demographically) Waterbury, Connecticut. It seems like there’s a pattern of impoverished Post-industrial cities regardless of exact demographics remaining heavily Democrat.

[If my soul was made of stone]

I believe that the mining and industrial areas of NEPA (Lackawanna, Luzerne) began their decline and transition into post-industrial-ism somewhat earlier and more smoothly than the analogous downwardly-mobile coal and steel areas of the southwest that were Fritz's core in the state, and thus had somewhat more of a modern middle-class that was more amenable to Reagan. These people existed in the Pittsburgh metro too, of course, hence why Allegheny County voted more republican than further-flung Beaver, Fayette, etc., but were outvoted by industrial areas whose decline was then less dire than today, more than the remaining industrial centers of Lackawanna could outvote the more affluent parts of Scranton and its immediate environs.

I don't know enough to say if Pittsburgh encroachment partially replacing the fleeing industrial base played a part in turning counties like Beaver or Washington red in the 21st century compared to the presence of that contingent in Lackawanna, but it's something that I should look into; just a quick look at Census data shows some Beaver municipalities growing slightly between 1990 and 2000, possibly indicating some truth to this conjecture.

Admittedly I'm not an expert on this part of the world, and this is a fair bit of speculation.

I think your analysis makes a lot of sense. It’s amazing how at the county level PA looks so radically different in 84 with the exception of Philadelphia and Pittsburgh proper.

I did a medium dive into Beaver County a while back when my curiosity was peaked by an old blog from 2008 which identified it as one of the few non-rural Kerry-McCain counties. One thing I found interesting is that even today Aliquippa went for Biden by a fairy comfortable margin despite being almost as white as the surrounding small towns, even in 2016 there was virtually no swing towards Trump. Sort of similar to Greenfield, MA and (though I’m not sure if it holds as much demographically) Waterbury, Connecticut. It seems like there’s a pattern of impoverished Post-industrial cities regardless of exact demographics remaining heavily Democrat.

Aliquippa has always been somewhat more Black than its environs, and is now majority-minority on 2020 numbers. The most Dem of neighboring towns is Ambridge, which is also a fair bit Blacker than most of the county. Beaver County in the whole is somewhat more diverse than the other counties surrounding Allegheny, hence its higher Dem floor. I figure there must also be some sort of "trend stasis" between both R-trending WWC folks and D-trending exurbanites voting more D than usual for it to retain its downballot competitiveness.

Sort of similar to Greenfield, MA

Paging Nathan!

[Gracile]

I believe that the mining and industrial areas of NEPA (Lackawanna, Luzerne) began their decline and transition into post-industrial-ism somewhat earlier and more smoothly than the analogous downwardly-mobile coal and steel areas of the southwest that were Fritz's core in the state, and thus had somewhat more of a modern middle-class that was more amenable to Reagan. These people existed in the Pittsburgh metro too, of course, hence why Allegheny County voted more republican than further-flung Beaver, Fayette, etc., but were outvoted by industrial areas whose decline was then less dire than today, more than the remaining industrial centers of Lackawanna could outvote the more affluent parts of Scranton and its immediate environs.

I don't know enough to say if Pittsburgh encroachment partially replacing the fleeing industrial base played a part in turning counties like Beaver or Washington red in the 21st century compared to the presence of that contingent in Lackawanna, but it's something that I should look into; just a quick look at Census data shows some Beaver municipalities growing slightly between 1990 and 2000, possibly indicating some truth to this conjecture.

Admittedly I'm not an expert on this part of the world, and this is a fair bit of speculation.

I think your analysis makes a lot of sense. It’s amazing how at the county level PA looks so radically different in 84 with the exception of Philadelphia and Pittsburgh proper.

I did a medium dive into Beaver County a while back when my curiosity was peaked by an old blog from 2008 which identified it as one of the few non-rural Kerry-McCain counties. One thing I found interesting is that even today Aliquippa went for Biden by a fairy comfortable margin despite being almost as white as the surrounding small towns, even in 2016 there was virtually no swing towards Trump. Sort of similar to Greenfield, MA and (though I’m not sure if it holds as much demographically) Waterbury, Connecticut. It seems like there’s a pattern of impoverished Post-industrial cities regardless of exact demographics remaining heavily Democrat.

This is not entirely true. Aliquippa 7 & 8 - the most white precincts in the city - were won by Obama by 24 and 30 points respectively in 2012 and then ended up being narrow wins for Clinton and Biden. Its Democratic strength is largely because the black parts of the city held up better.

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

Sort of similar to Greenfield, MA

Paging Nathan!

This is less wrong than you implied to me on Discord that you thought it was, although it's missing the "Birkenstock Belt" hippie aspect that I assume is not present in Aliquippa.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Reagan did great with Blue Collar workers with the exception of Coal Miners

[If my soul was made of stone]

Reagan did great with Blue Collar workers with the exception of Coal Miners

As many on here, including several in this thread, have pointed out, this is much more true of Nixon Democrats or even Eisenhower Democrats (the two Ike elections along with 1984 are the only times that PA has voted left of NY) than Reagan Democrats, who tended to be more affluent. Much of the industrial base of the southwest was steel as much as coal, anyway.

[Asenath Waite]

I believe that the mining and industrial areas of NEPA (Lackawanna, Luzerne) began their decline and transition into post-industrial-ism somewhat earlier and more smoothly than the analogous downwardly-mobile coal and steel areas of the southwest that were Fritz's core in the state, and thus had somewhat more of a modern middle-class that was more amenable to Reagan. These people existed in the Pittsburgh metro too, of course, hence why Allegheny County voted more republican than further-flung Beaver, Fayette, etc., but were outvoted by industrial areas whose decline was then less dire than today, more than the remaining industrial centers of Lackawanna could outvote the more affluent parts of Scranton and its immediate environs.

I don't know enough to say if Pittsburgh encroachment partially replacing the fleeing industrial base played a part in turning counties like Beaver or Washington red in the 21st century compared to the presence of that contingent in Lackawanna, but it's something that I should look into; just a quick look at Census data shows some Beaver municipalities growing slightly between 1990 and 2000, possibly indicating some truth to this conjecture.

Admittedly I'm not an expert on this part of the world, and this is a fair bit of speculation.

I think your analysis makes a lot of sense. It’s amazing how at the county level PA looks so radically different in 84 with the exception of Philadelphia and Pittsburgh proper.

I did a medium dive into Beaver County a while back when my curiosity was peaked by an old blog from 2008 which identified it as one of the few non-rural Kerry-McCain counties. One thing I found interesting is that even today Aliquippa went for Biden by a fairy comfortable margin despite being almost as white as the surrounding small towns, even in 2016 there was virtually no swing towards Trump. Sort of similar to Greenfield, MA and (though I’m not sure if it holds as much demographically) Waterbury, Connecticut. It seems like there’s a pattern of impoverished Post-industrial cities regardless of exact demographics remaining heavily Democrat.

This is not entirely true. Aliquippa 7 & 8 - the most white precincts in the city - were won by Obama by 24 and 30 points respectively in 2012 and then ended up being narrow wins for Clinton and Biden. Its Democratic strength is largely because the black parts of the city held up better.

Oh I stand corrected

[sting in the rafters]

I believe that the mining and industrial areas of NEPA (Lackawanna, Luzerne) began their decline and transition into post-industrial-ism somewhat earlier and more smoothly than the analogous downwardly-mobile coal and steel areas of the southwest that were Fritz's core in the state, and thus had somewhat more of a modern middle-class that was more amenable to Reagan. These people existed in the Pittsburgh metro too, of course, hence why Allegheny County voted more Republican than further-flung Beaver, Fayette, etc., but were outvoted by industrial areas whose decline was then less dire than today, more than the remaining industrial centers of Lackawanna could outvote the more affluent parts of Scranton and its immediate environs.

I don't know enough to say if Pittsburgh encroachment partially replacing the fleeing industrial base played a part in turning counties like Beaver or Washington red in the 21st century compared to the presence of that contingent in Lackawanna, but it's something that I should look into; just a quick look at Census data shows some Beaver municipalities growing slightly between 1990 and 2000, possibly indicating some truth to this conjecture.

Admittedly I'm not an expert on this part of the world, and this is a fair bit of speculation.

This is true in the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre metro's tax base collapsed more quickly due to the Knox Mine disaster exposing the cracks in the anthracite mining industry. It is also true that Reagan doing very little in terms of federal subsidization to stop the hemorrhaging of the ironworks industry as well as refusing to protect manufacturers from foreign competition undercutting the market left a very bad taste in the mouth of a lot in the Steel Belt. However, it was not a smooth transition into a service economy in any sense. The promises of economic revitalization from the advent of I-81 and the Northeast Extension never materialized because logistical support+retail inherently creates less economic value than the design, manufacturing, or extraction of raw materials. The Scranton of the late 20th century was the poster child for industrial decay; everyone who could leave did. To this day are almost as many over 65 than there are children in Lackawanna/Luzerne.  "Who has it worse" now is suburban Pittsburgh by a fair (though not wide) margin; who had it worse in the 80s is like choosing between gonorrhea and dysentery.

The reason why NEPA was more conservative than the southern counties Pittsburgh metro during the heyday of the New Deal Coalition is the latter being much more heavily unionized. Very long history of organization, strikes (Homestead, Johnstown in 1937, 1952 nationwide). Class consciousness was prevalent in NEPA, though the large Catholic population ultimately was a larger determinant of voter behavior. This is why it flipped in 1928 in opposition to Hoover's term, not 1932 with the New Deal realignment. After all, Luzerne was a state bellwether at all levels until 2018 and Lackawanna went for Ike in '56 while Stevenson was victorious only in the 4 counties in the southwestern corner of the state plus Philly.

Tl;dr: Lackawanna went for Ronnie because while the NE coal region was left-leaning, labor didn't quite have the same clout as it did in West Virginia/the Pittsburgh metro. Despite what everyone Atlas seems to believe Appalachia is no monolith.

[If my soul was made of stone]

I believe that the mining and industrial areas of NEPA (Lackawanna, Luzerne) began their decline and transition into post-industrial-ism somewhat earlier and more smoothly than the analogous downwardly-mobile coal and steel areas of the southwest that were Fritz's core in the state, and thus had somewhat more of a modern middle-class that was more amenable to Reagan. These people existed in the Pittsburgh metro too, of course, hence why Allegheny County voted more Republican than further-flung Beaver, Fayette, etc., but were outvoted by industrial areas whose decline was then less dire than today, more than the remaining industrial centers of Lackawanna could outvote the more affluent parts of Scranton and its immediate environs.

I don't know enough to say if Pittsburgh encroachment partially replacing the fleeing industrial base played a part in turning counties like Beaver or Washington red in the 21st century compared to the presence of that contingent in Lackawanna, but it's something that I should look into; just a quick look at Census data shows some Beaver municipalities growing slightly between 1990 and 2000, possibly indicating some truth to this conjecture.

Admittedly I'm not an expert on this part of the world, and this is a fair bit of speculation.

This is true in the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre metro's tax base collapsed more quickly due to the Knox Mine disaster exposing the cracks in the anthracite mining industry. It is also true that Reagan doing very little in terms of federal subsidization to stop the hemorrhaging of the ironworks industry as well as refusing to protect manufacturers from foreign competition undercutting the market left a very bad taste in the mouth of a lot in the Steel Belt. However, it was not a smooth transition into a service economy in any sense. The promises of economic revitalization from the advent of I-81 and the Northeast Extension never materialized because logistical support+retail inherently creates less economic value than the design, manufacturing, or extraction of raw materials. The Scranton of the late 20th century was the poster child for industrial decay; everyone who could leave did. To this day are almost as many over 65 than there are children in Lackawanna/Luzerne.  "Who has it worse" now is suburban Pittsburgh by a fair (though not wide) margin; who had it worse in the 80s is like choosing between gonorrhea and dysentery.

The reason why NEPA was more conservative than the southern counties Pittsburgh metro during the heyday of the New Deal Coalition is the latter being much more heavily unionized. Very long history of organization, strikes (Homestead, Johnstown in 1937, 1952 nationwide). Class consciousness was prevalent in NEPA, though the large Catholic population ultimately was a larger determinant of voter behavior. This is why it flipped in 1928 in opposition to Hoover's term, not 1932 with the New Deal realignment. After all, Luzerne was a state bellwether at all levels until 2018 and Lackawanna went for Ike in '56 while Stevenson was victorious only in the 4 counties in the southwestern corner of the state plus Philly.

Tl;dr: Lackawanna went for Ronnie because while the NE coal region was left-leaning, labor didn't quite have the same clout as it did in West Virginia/the Pittsburgh metro. Despite what everyone Atlas seems to believe Appalachia is no monolith.

Thank you for setting me straight.

[Asenath Waite]

I believe that the mining and industrial areas of NEPA (Lackawanna, Luzerne) began their decline and transition into post-industrial-ism somewhat earlier and more smoothly than the analogous downwardly-mobile coal and steel areas of the southwest that were Fritz's core in the state, and thus had somewhat more of a modern middle-class that was more amenable to Reagan. These people existed in the Pittsburgh metro too, of course, hence why Allegheny County voted more Republican than further-flung Beaver, Fayette, etc., but were outvoted by industrial areas whose decline was then less dire than today, more than the remaining industrial centers of Lackawanna could outvote the more affluent parts of Scranton and its immediate environs.

I don't know enough to say if Pittsburgh encroachment partially replacing the fleeing industrial base played a part in turning counties like Beaver or Washington red in the 21st century compared to the presence of that contingent in Lackawanna, but it's something that I should look into; just a quick look at Census data shows some Beaver municipalities growing slightly between 1990 and 2000, possibly indicating some truth to this conjecture.

Admittedly I'm not an expert on this part of the world, and this is a fair bit of speculation.

This is true in the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre metro's tax base collapsed more quickly due to the Knox Mine disaster exposing the cracks in the anthracite mining industry. It is also true that Reagan doing very little in terms of federal subsidization to stop the hemorrhaging of the ironworks industry as well as refusing to protect manufacturers from foreign competition undercutting the market left a very bad taste in the mouth of a lot in the Steel Belt. However, it was not a smooth transition into a service economy in any sense. The promises of economic revitalization from the advent of I-81 and the Northeast Extension never materialized because logistical support+retail inherently creates less economic value than the design, manufacturing, or extraction of raw materials. The Scranton of the late 20th century was the poster child for industrial decay; everyone who could leave did. To this day are almost as many over 65 than there are children in Lackawanna/Luzerne.  "Who has it worse" now is suburban Pittsburgh by a fair (though not wide) margin; who had it worse in the 80s is like choosing between gonorrhea and dysentery.

The reason why NEPA was more conservative than the southern counties Pittsburgh metro during the heyday of the New Deal Coalition is the latter being much more heavily unionized. Very long history of organization, strikes (Homestead, Johnstown in 1937, 1952 nationwide). Class consciousness was prevalent in NEPA, though the large Catholic population ultimately was a larger determinant of voter behavior. This is why it flipped in 1928 in opposition to Hoover's term, not 1932 with the New Deal realignment. After all, Luzerne was a state bellwether at all levels until 2018 and Lackawanna went for Ike in '56 while Stevenson was victorious only in the 4 counties in the southwestern corner of the state plus Philly.

Tl;dr: Lackawanna went for Ronnie because while the NE coal region was left-leaning, labor didn't quite have the same clout as it did in West Virginia/the Pittsburgh metro. Despite what everyone Atlas seems to believe Appalachia is no monolith.

Thank you for setting me straight.

and me as well

[morgieb]

Reagan did great with Blue Collar workers with the exception of Coal Miners

Ah yes, that very non-coal city of Scranton!

[OSR stands with Israel]

Reagan did great with Blue Collar workers with the exception of Coal Miners

Ah yes, that very non-coal city of Scranton!

Reagan probably lost the city of Scranton