Majority Watch new polls

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

NY 20:

Gilibrand D  54%
SweeneyR  41%

NY 29:

Massa D: 52%
Kuhl   R:  40%

NY 25

Maffei  D: 51%
Walsh  R: 43%

IL 08

Bean              D: 47%
McSweeney   R:  44%

IL 10

Kirk     R: 46%
Seals  D: 44%

http://constituentdynamics.com/mw/2006/index2.php

[Democratic Hawk]

Is there any District that RT Strategies/CD won't be including in their "Majority Watch" project come 7/11 ?

If these polls prove accurate, then the New York GOP is in for a jolly rough night

Dave

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Bean is still in trouble...

[Democratic Hawk]

Bean is still in trouble...

Unfortunately , I risk crashing my computer if I attempt to open the cross-tabs. They'll show you the situation among those certain to vote

Dave

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The ads here in IL in IL 06 and 8 are nasty.

[okstate]

1994 Washington = 2006 New York anyone?

Seriously, it is not inconcievable that the GOP could be left with only 2 House seats in NY after this year.

Reynolds and NY-24 OPEN are nearly gone at this point. Sweeney's opponent leads big according to this poll and has enough money to make it a race. The money situation for those against Kuhl and then Kelly and Walsh especially is worrisome, but in a wave, even the little amount of money they have could be enough.

King still leads slightly in last Majority Watch poll, but he could find himself taken out even though his opponent has like no money.

The problem is that New York's GOP has nothing going for it this year. Hillary and Spitzer are going to be huge winners and I would assume the NY GOP has no turnout machine. At least in a state like Ohio or Pennsylvania, the GOP there has massive turnout abilities thanks to those states' statuses as swing states in Presidential elections.

There's just no reason for New York GOP voters to go to the polls this year.

On my GOP vulnerability list, here's where the New York Republicans stand right now:

4. NY-26 (Reynolds)
6. NY-24 OPEN (Boehlert)
23. NY-20 (Sweeney)
27. NY-29 (Kuhl)
33. NY-19 (Kelly)
35. NY-25 (Walsh)
44. NY-03 (King)

That puts Reynolds in the Likely Dem category, NY-24 in the Lean Dem category, Sweeney in Tossup, Kuhl and Kelly in Tilt Republican, and Walsh and King in Lean Republican. Walsh is the top of the Lean Republican list, though.

I can't concieve of John McHugh losing, though, so that's at least one guaranteed GOP seat from New York. Vito Fossella should be fine, too.

[Democratic Hawk]

King still leads slightly in last Majority Watch poll, but he could find himself taken out even though his opponent has like no money.

Among certain voters, King is behind 43/49

Dave

[Eraserhead]

It is hard to believe that Hall and Gillibrand are leading (let alone by that much) but if its true I feel like dancing...and I usually hate dancing. My area finally goes Democrat!!!

[poughies]

If u are going to dance makes sure its to still the one.... I guess for sue she ain't...

[Eraserhead]

If u are going to dance makes sure its to still the one.... I guess for sue she ain't...

Snap on Sue.

[Erc]

A good friend of mine has been telling me for a while that NY-19 is actually competitive, and I haven't believed him.

Apparently I should.  And apparently Sue Kelly's going to lose.

[Deano963]

I wouldn't be surprised if the Republicans lose six House seats in New York. Not saying it's gonna happen, but I wouldn't be surprised seeing as how they are going to be destroyed at the top of the ticket.

[Tender Branson]

Gillibrand: 54%
Sweeney: 41%

? I hoped this race would get close and that she would win, but this is great news !

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

All look great, though NY-29 looks pretty sketchy to me. I'd be very suprised if we took that one. All other House seats except for Fossella's and McHugh's are winnable though.

[Eraserhead]

A good friend of mine has been telling me for a while that NY-19 is actually competitive, and I haven't believed him.

Apparently I should.  And apparently Sue Kelly's going to lose.

I had a feeling it would get close. Hall's supporters are hardcore but I didn't really think a win was possible until now.