I think Warnock is favored, but not by nearly this much, so I can’t say he’s not beatable. It’s hard to see Georgia voting left of the generic ballot in 2022. Possible in 2024 though.
For example, If generic ballot ends up being R+3 (RCP aggregate is R+3.7 currently), I have a hard time seeing Georgia being left of R+2 this soon. That’s a 5-pt trend left from 2020.
I don't think it's that hard to believe. Georgia has been pretty consistently immune to midterm R trends in recent years.
GA may as well be its own little bubble.
GA still swung D drastically from the 2014 Gov race. It went from a 7.8% R win to a 1.4% R win in 2018. GA also wasn't there yet in 2018.
That is true. But I wouldn't credit it to the 2018 wave as much as the state's changing demographics. If GA was more wave-driven, then Ds would likely have won the governorship in 2018.
