Will California vote to the right of Texas in our lifetimes?

[Cyrusman]

As of today, 1980 is the last time this happens. Can you see a situation in our lifetimes where California votes to the right of Texas in a presidential election?

[Roll Roons]

Nothing is forever in politics, but I have a very hard time seeing it happen in the next 20 years. After that, idk.

[Schiff for Senate]

Nothing is forever in politics, but I have a very hard time seeing it happen in the next 20 years. After that, idk.

This but it will definitely take more than 20 years if it even happens during my lifetime.

[DS0816]

As of today, [1980] is the last time this happens. Can you see a situation in our lifetimes where California votes to the right of Texas in a presidential election?

…1976.

Considering…

• California—from Democratic to Republican?

• Texas—from Republican to Democratic?

It can happen. It would be the two major U.S. political parties swapping some of their coalitions. And I think we have been getting some of that anyway.

Much of this depends on the Republicans going forward.

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

Nothing is forever in politics, but I have a very hard time seeing it happen in the next 20 years. After that, idk.

This but it will definitely take more than 20 years if it even happens during my lifetime.

Probably won't happen for at least 40 years.

[OSR stands with Israel]

As of today, [1980] is the last time this happens. Can you see a situation in our lifetimes where California votes to the right of Texas in a presidential election?

…1976.

Considering…

• California—from Democratic to Republican?

• Texas—from Republican to Democratic?

It can happen. It would be the two major U.S. political parties swapping some of their coalitions. And I think we have been getting some of that anyway.

Much of this depends on the Republicans going forward.

In 1976 California voted for Ford by 1.8 points and Texas voted for Carter by 3.2 points and that was with the Democrats nominating a southern democrat who was a bad fit for the west.


In fact the most California has been republican in relation to the nation since 1928 was in 1980 which was it was more republican than the nation by 7 points . Texas in 2020 was 10 points to the right of the nation

[deluxedriver]

Probably not considering the candidates that would win primaries these days

[Forum explorer]

No

[TDAS04]

I doubt it, but who knows, we could live for several more decades.  A lot can happen in that time.

[DS0816]

As of today, [1980] is the last time this happens. Can you see a situation in our lifetimes where California votes to the right of Texas in a presidential election?

…1976.

Considering…

• California—from Democratic to Republican?

• Texas—from Republican to Democratic?

It can happen. It would be the two major U.S. political parties swapping some of their coalitions. And I think we have been getting some of that anyway.

Much of this depends on the Republicans going forward.

In 1976 California voted for Ford by 1.8 points and Texas voted for Carter by 3.2 points and that was with the Democrats nominating a southern democrat who was a bad fit for the west.


In fact the most California has been republican in relation to the nation since [1928] was in 1980 which was it was more republican than the nation by 7 points . Texas in 2020 was 10 points to the right of the nation

1968.

Richard Nixon won a Republican pickup of the presidency of the United States. His U.S. Popular Vote margin was +0.70 percentage points. California was a Republican pickup, for Nixon, with a margin of R+3.08. Texas was retained in the Democratic column by Hubert Humphrey with a margin of D+1.27.

During that period, both California and Texas were bellwether states. California was carried in 22 of 25 elections from 1900 to 1996. Texas voted with all winners, except in 1968, from 1928 to 1988. (Also: With exception in 1880, and through 1988, all winning Republicans carried California; through 1976, all winning Democrats carried Texas.)

Margins are not the point I was making. I am referring to realignments. Those include political and political party realignments. And they include voting realignments.

[Person Man]

It's very hard to imagine or rule out completely.

[Agonized-Statism]

Depends on whose lifetime. There will be lots of opportunities for both to trend either way depending on changes to the states or the parties themselves, chances that increase with time. Things will be shaken up by climate change, wars, state failures, technological development, and so on, to a point where 2042 will no doubt be less recognizable than 2002. But I doubt we could get to a Democrat Texas and Republican California until later in the century, and the shift would have to start earlier.

[Skill and Chance]

IMO the most plausible scenario involves R's winning an overwhelming majority of the Hispanic vote at some point in the future, so CA is an R blowout while TX is somewhat closer.

[Ferguson97]

"Lifetime" could be up to 60 years for some of us. I would feel very silly saying I could say for certain how any state would vote more than half a century from now.

I am not going to rule it out, but there would have to be a MASSIVE demographic shift, ideological shift, or something to that effect.

[indietraveler]

Possible it could happen towards the end of our lifetimes for posters on the younger side here, however you want to define young.

These two states are heavily associated with their political identities so it seems impossible in the next 20 years.

[RINO Tom]

Let's go back one lifetime, using the above example of 60 years.  While the parties have changed drastically over that timeframe, we still largely had a "left-leaning" Democratic Party in 1962 that saw itself as a defender of "disadvantaged" groups in society, and we still had a "right-leaning" Republican Party that saw itself as a defender of "traditional values" and hierarchical structures.  In other words, there is no serious argument that the two parties have made any seismic shifts on an ideological axis since 1962, even with the Civil Rights Era and everything after it.

With that said, how many groups vote even roughly similar to how they did in 1962??  I came up with POSSIBLY the following...

- Small business owners (GOP)
- Rural Protestants in the Plains states (GOP)
- Middle-class urban residents in the Northeast (DEM)
- Jewish voters (DEM)
- Non-White union voters (DEM)
- Non-White Catholics (DEM)

I might be missing some here and there, but these are groups that pretty clearly have stuck with their parties (for the most part).  However, I don't have data on this.  The reasons these voters have stuck with their parties go WAY deeper than the current political climate ... they're all a lot more philosophical.  So, I would say identifying groups that vote for their party for a "longer-lasting" reason vs. a more "contemporary" one is a good start.  Someone who hates the GOP because of Trump is probably one of the weaker prospects for a "lifelong liberal," and someone who hates the Democrats because of mask mandates is not likely to be a "lifelong conservative," as those things are flavor of the month in the grand picture of things.

I think you will continue to see self-sorting over the next decade or even 15 years, but I think our current political climate (both the left and the right) will discredit itself to the voters of the 2040s and 2050s.  People will look back on this era as childish and impractical, with both parties looking like deranged ancestors of their current incarnations ... I just don't know what those future incarnations will look like.  I think California will see a stall in population growth in the near future, followed by reform and a successive population explosion again, while I think Texas will likely continue to see growth at the current pace.  By 2060 or so (when I indeed hope to still be alive), I could easily see these states having similar ENOUGH demographic makeups that a "favorite son effect" or an event geographically unique enough like the Farm Crisis in 1988 could push CA to the right of TX in a one-off election.

[MarkD]

No. (But the rest of MY lifetime is going to be a much shorter period than the rest of YOUR lifetimes for most Atlas users. It's easier to say that little is going to change for CA and TX in the next 20 years, so I won't see that much of a change before I die, than it is to say that there will not be a major change in the next 50-60 years for so many of you young whippersnappers who are clearly the majority of Atlas users.)