What congressional seats that Dems lost in 2018 could they have held in 2020?

[Tekken_Guy]

What congressional seats that Democrats lost in 2018 would they have been able to hang onto for more than one term?

[kwabbit]

Only three seats flipped to the GOP in 2018. PA-14, which was just because PA-14 and PA-18 essentially exchanged seats, and two MN seats: MN-8 in Northeast Minnesota and MN-1 in South Minnesota.

The only one appears to be MN-1, where Jim Hagedorn is a very weak candidate, underperforming Trump's margin by 7 points, winning by 3 points. MN-8 is safe R going forward.

[Meatball Ron]

I think OP means seats that Dems failed to flip in 2018, not seats the GOP flipped.

In all likelihood, had Dems flipped PA-01, NY-24, or NE-02 in 2018, Biden's margin in those districts should have been enough for Dems to hold them in 2020, assuming the Dem incumbent didn't turn out to be Shalala-style incompetent and the GOP predecessor didn't decide to run again.

[Tekken_Guy]

I think OP means seats that Dems failed to flip in 2018, not seats the GOP flipped.

In all likelihood, had Dems flipped PA-01, NY-24, or NE-02 in 2018, Biden's margin in those districts should have been enough for Dems to hold them in 2020, assuming the Dem incumbent didn't turn out to be Shalala-style incompetent and the GOP predecessor didn't decide to run again.

-Don Bacon I think might have lost a rematch in NE-02, though he probably outperforms Trump by a bit.
-Katko would have run well ahead of Trump even as a challenger, though not by nearly as much as he did in real life. 50/50 on whether or not he flips it back.
-Brian Fitzpatrick definitely would have won his seat back. Wallace is way more toxic than Balter or Eastman, and Fitzpatrick won by the largest margin out of him, Katko, and Bacon.

[Meatball Ron]

I think OP means seats that Dems failed to flip in 2018, not seats the GOP flipped.

In all likelihood, had Dems flipped PA-01, NY-24, or NE-02 in 2018, Biden's margin in those districts should have been enough for Dems to hold them in 2020, assuming the Dem incumbent didn't turn out to be Shalala-style incompetent and the GOP predecessor didn't decide to run again.

-Don Bacon I think might have lost a rematch in NE-02, though he probably outperforms Trump by a bit.
-Katko would have run well ahead of Trump even as a challenger, though not by nearly as much as he did in real life. 50/50 on whether or not he flips it back.
-Brian Fitzpatrick definitely would have won his seat back. Wallace is way more toxic than Balter or Eastman, and Fitzpatrick won by the largest margin out of him, Katko, and Bacon.

Inclined to agree. Did not mean to imply that Katko/Bacon/Fitz would be guaranteed to win their seat back, nor that Wallace/Balter/Eastman would be guaranteed to hold the seat even if their predecessors didn't run. After all, Cisneros (for example) went down in a non-rematch in a district of similar partisanship. Just meant that whether those predecessors would run again would play a role in whether Dems would hold the seat.

I also think Londrigan would have at least had a shot of holding IL-13, particularly if Davis didn't run again. The district was only Trump +3, so an easier lift for Dems than some districts they did hold like ME-02 (not to imply Londrigan would have as much crossover appeal as Golden)

[Tekken_Guy]

I think OP means seats that Dems failed to flip in 2018, not seats the GOP flipped.

In all likelihood, had Dems flipped PA-01, NY-24, or NE-02 in 2018, Biden's margin in those districts should have been enough for Dems to hold them in 2020, assuming the Dem incumbent didn't turn out to be Shalala-style incompetent and the GOP predecessor didn't decide to run again.

-Don Bacon I think might have lost a rematch in NE-02, though he probably outperforms Trump by a bit.
-Katko would have run well ahead of Trump even as a challenger, though not by nearly as much as he did in real life. 50/50 on whether or not he flips it back.
-Brian Fitzpatrick definitely would have won his seat back. Wallace is way more toxic than Balter or Eastman, and Fitzpatrick won by the largest margin out of him, Katko, and Bacon.

Inclined to agree. Did not mean to imply that Katko/Bacon/Fitz would be guaranteed to win their seat back, nor that Wallace/Balter/Eastman would be guaranteed to hold the seat even if their predecessors didn't run. After all, Cisneros (for example) went down in a non-rematch in a district of similar partisanship. Just meant that whether those predecessors would run again would play a role in whether Dems would hold the seat.

I also think Londrigan would have at least had a shot of holding IL-13, particularly if Davis didn't run again. The district was only Trump +3, so an easier lift for Dems than some districts they did hold like ME-02 (not to imply Londrigan would have as much crossover appeal as Golden)

Gil Cisneros did lose to the same person he beat in 2018, though it wasn't the person he succeeded in congress.