Will any former members of Congress return in 2022?
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  Will any former members of Congress return in 2022?
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Question: Will any former members of Congress return in 2022?
#1
Yes
 
#2
No
 
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Total Voters: 17

Author Topic: Will any former members of Congress return in 2022?  (Read 441 times)
Tekken_Guy
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« on: November 24, 2021, 07:06:07 PM »

Will any former congresspeople be returning to Congress in 2022?
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #1 on: November 24, 2021, 07:33:10 PM »

More likely than not at least one will. Bruce Poliquin has a good chance in ME-02 (although this remains one of the more difficult D-held Trump seats for the GOP to flip), and Ryan Zinke could return to represent MT-01 instead of MT-AL.
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #2 on: November 24, 2021, 07:39:34 PM »

More likely than not at least one will. Bruce Poliquin has a good chance in ME-02 (although this remains one of the more difficult D-held Trump seats for the GOP to flip), and Ryan Zinke could return to represent MT-01 instead of MT-AL.

I forgot about them. I was only thinking about people who were last in the 116th congress. Will anyone who left congress at the beginning of the year be returning?
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TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #3 on: November 24, 2021, 07:50:49 PM »

When's the last time this didn't happen in a president's first midterm?
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #4 on: November 24, 2021, 08:23:13 PM »
« Edited: November 24, 2021, 08:32:24 PM by Roll Roons »

When's the last time this didn't happen in a president's first midterm?

At least a couple have won in almost every election cycle this century - 2002 and 2008 seem to be the only exceptions.

2020: Kweisi Mfume, David Valadao, Claudia Tenney, Pete Sessions, Darrell Issa, Cynthia Lummis
2018: Steve Horsford, Ann Kirkpatrick
2016: Carol Shea-Porter, Brad Schneider (ew)
2014: The amazing Bob Dold, Frank Guinta
2012: Bill Foster, Rick Nolan, Dan Maffei, Carol Shea-Porter, Alan Grayson
2010: Steve Chabot, Charlie Bass, Tim Walberg, Mike Fitzpatrick
2006: Baron Hill, Nick Lampson
2004: Dan Lungren, Cynthia McKinney (lol)
2000: Jane Harman. And Maria Cantwell got elected to the Senate. 

I wouldn't be surprised if I'm forgetting a few.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #5 on: November 24, 2021, 08:31:17 PM »
« Edited: November 24, 2021, 09:09:56 PM by TiltsAreUnderrated »

When's the last time this didn't happen in a president's first midterm?

At least a couple have won in almost every recent election cycle this century - 2002 and 2008 seem to be the only exceptions.

2020: Kweisi Mfume, David Valadao, Claudia Tenney, Pete Sessions, Darrell Issa, Cynthia Lummis
2018: Steve Horsford, Ann Kirkpatrick
2016: Carol Shea-Porter, Brad Schneider (ew)
2014: The amazing Bob Dold, Frank Guinta
2012: Bill Foster, Rick Nolan, Dan Maffei, Carol Shea-Porter, Alan Grayson
2010: Steve Chabot, Charlie Bass, Tim Walberg, Mike Fitzpatrick
2006: Baron Hill, Nick Lampson
2004: Dan Lungren, Cynthia McKinney (lol)
2000: Jane Harman. And Maria Cantwell got elected to the Senate.  

I wouldn't be surprised if I'm forgetting a few.

2008 is the only one I could find going back to 1992 (inclusive). Jim Cooper, Frank Lautenberg, Mark Pryor and Jim Talent returned in 2002.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #6 on: November 24, 2021, 09:10:05 PM »
« Edited: November 24, 2021, 09:44:05 PM by TiltsAreUnderrated »

When's the last time this didn't happen in a president's first midterm?

At least a couple have won in almost every recent election cycle this century - 2002 and 2008 seem to be the only exceptions.

2020: Kweisi Mfume, David Valadao, Claudia Tenney, Pete Sessions, Darrell Issa, Cynthia Lummis
2018: Steve Horsford, Ann Kirkpatrick
2016: Carol Shea-Porter, Brad Schneider (ew)
2014: The amazing Bob Dold, Frank Guinta
2012: Bill Foster, Rick Nolan, Dan Maffei, Carol Shea-Porter, Alan Grayson
2010: Steve Chabot, Charlie Bass, Tim Walberg, Mike Fitzpatrick
2006: Baron Hill, Nick Lampson
2004: Dan Lungren, Cynthia McKinney (lol)
2000: Jane Harman. And Maria Cantwell got elected to the Senate.  

I wouldn't be surprised if I'm forgetting a few.

2008 is the only one I could find going back to 1992 (inclusive). Jim Cooper, Frank Lautenberg, Mark Pryor and Jim Talent returned in 2002.

I went back to (and including) 1966 and found no other election that fit the criteria. None since the VRA besides 2008. I might push to 1920 tomorrow if I have time.

Edit: I changed my mind and went back to 1920 (inclusive) tonight. 2008 remains an anomaly in this regard.
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Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas
Ray Goldfield
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« Reply #7 on: November 24, 2021, 09:49:20 PM »

If Cori Bush continues to beclown herself or Jamaal Bowman loses the DSA's support, what are the odds Clay or Engel decide to try to take their seats back? Engel seems unlikely since he sort of felt ready to retire, but Clay is only 65.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #8 on: November 25, 2021, 03:58:43 AM »

If Cori Bush continues to beclown herself or Jamaal Bowman loses the DSA's support, what are the odds Clay or Engel decide to try to take their seats back? Engel seems unlikely since he sort of felt ready to retire, but Clay is only 65.

Low. These men relied on institutional support that will go to more competent alternatives.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #9 on: November 26, 2021, 07:05:13 AM »

The Senate/House Congresses of 1789-1791 (by default) and 1791-1793 are the only ones besides 2008 in which no former member of Congress returned.

In the Congress of 1791-1973, John Brown returned, but in a special election held after all regular elections for that class.
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JMT
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« Reply #10 on: November 26, 2021, 12:09:38 PM »

From what I’ve read, Max Rose is likely to run again. If redistricting works in his favor, he’ll probably return to Congress.
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