If every state had a third senator, what party would they be from
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  If every state had a third senator, what party would they be from
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Author Topic: If every state had a third senator, what party would they be from  (Read 258 times)
Tekken_Guy
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« on: November 25, 2021, 11:10:52 PM »

If each state had a third U.S. senator, what party would each one be from?
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GM Team Member and Senator WB
weatherboy1102
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« Reply #1 on: November 25, 2021, 11:22:35 PM »



almost put IA in the R column but that one being up in 2018 makes it uncertain
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Roll Roons
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #2 on: November 25, 2021, 11:32:05 PM »



almost put IA in the R column but that one being up in 2018 makes it uncertain

I think Nevada would also be up in the air, and maybe Minnesota - Trump did almost win the state in 2016. Aside from those, I generally agree.
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Adem 45
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« Reply #3 on: November 25, 2021, 11:51:30 PM »

Assuming no special elections in the new seats.

AL R
AK R
AZ Most likely D
AR R
CA D
CO D
CT D
DE D
FL R
GA Probably R
HI D
ID R
IL D
IN D
IA Possibly D? They'd of been elected in 2018.
KS R
KY R
LA R
ME D
MD D
MA D
MI Possibly R? They'd of been elected in 2016.
MN D
MS R
MO R
MT R
NE R
NV Probably D
NH D
NJ D
NM D
NY D
NC Possibly R? They'd of been elected in 2018, but Republicans managed to win more House votes in the state that year. This one is iffy.
ND R
OH R
OK R
OR D
PA Most likely D
RI D
SC R
SD R
TN R
TX R
UT R
VT D
VA D
WA D
WV R
WI Possibly D? Would have been elected in 2020. A slight overperformance downballot from Trump could change this though. If the R Senate candidate were to outperform Trump by the same amount that John James did in nearby Michigan this would be an R win.
WY R

Ones I am not super sure about are IA 2018, NC 2018, and WI 2020.

In this case that's 25 more seats for each party. Both parties would have 75 seats. Harris would still the tie breaker. If the Democratic candidate were to win in NC 2018, with IA and Wi and every other state the same, then it is 76-74, but Manchin would still in a similar position.









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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #4 on: November 26, 2021, 12:03:22 AM »

Assuming no special elections in the new seats.

AL R
AK R
AZ Most likely D
AR R
CA D
CO D
CT D
DE D
FL R
GA Probably R
HI D
ID R
IL D
IN D
IA Possibly D? They'd of been elected in 2018.
KS R
KY R
LA R
ME D
MD D
MA D
MI Possibly R? They'd of been elected in 2016.
MN D
MS R
MO R
MT R
NE R
NV Probably D
NH D
NJ D
NM D
NY D
NC Possibly R? They'd of been elected in 2018, but Republicans managed to win more House votes in the state that year. This one is iffy.
ND R
OH R
OK R
OR D
PA Most likely D
RI D
SC R
SD R
TN R
TX R
UT R
VT D
VA D
WA D
WV R
WI Possibly D? Would have been elected in 2020. A slight overperformance downballot from Trump could change this though. If the R Senate candidate were to outperform Trump by the same amount that John James did in nearby Michigan this would be an R win.
WY R

Ones I am not super sure about are IA 2018, NC 2018, and WI 2020.

In this case that's 25 more seats for each party. Both parties would have 75 seats. Harris would still the tie breaker. If the Democratic candidate were to win in NC 2018, with IA and Wi and every other state the same, then it is 76-74, but Manchin would still in a similar position.











Are you putting incumbency into account and how they would have voted in previous years?
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Adem 45
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« Reply #5 on: November 26, 2021, 01:04:12 AM »

Assuming no special elections in the new seats.

AL R
AK R
AZ Most likely D
AR R
CA D
CO D
CT D
DE D
FL R
GA Probably R
HI D
ID R
IL D
IN D
IA Possibly D? They'd of been elected in 2018.
KS R
KY R
LA R
ME D
MD D
MA D
MI Possibly R? They'd of been elected in 2016.
MN D
MS R
MO R
MT R
NE R
NV Probably D
NH D
NJ D
NM D
NY D
NC Possibly R? They'd of been elected in 2018, but Republicans managed to win more House votes in the state that year. This one is iffy.
ND R
OH R
OK R
OR D
PA Most likely D
RI D
SC R
SD R
TN R
TX R
UT R
VT D
VA D
WA D
WV R
WI Possibly D? Would have been elected in 2020. A slight overperformance downballot from Trump could change this though. If the R Senate candidate were to outperform Trump by the same amount that John James did in nearby Michigan this would be an R win.
WY R

Ones I am not super sure about are IA 2018, NC 2018, and WI 2020.

In this case that's 25 more seats for each party. Both parties would have 75 seats. Harris would still the tie breaker. If the Democratic candidate were to win in NC 2018, with IA and Wi and every other state the same, then it is 76-74, but Manchin would still in a similar position.











Are you putting incumbency into account and how they would have voted in previous years?
Really only factored in the environment when the elections took place.
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weatherboy1102
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« Reply #6 on: November 26, 2021, 01:45:02 AM »

Assuming no special elections in the new seats.

AL R
AK R
AZ Most likely D
AR R
CA D
CO D
CT D
DE D
FL R
GA Probably R
HI D
ID R
IL D
IN D
IA Possibly D? They'd of been elected in 2018.
KS R
KY R
LA R
ME D
MD D
MA D
MI Possibly R? They'd of been elected in 2016.
MN D
MS R
MO R
MT R
NE R
NV Probably D
NH D
NJ D
NM D
NY D
NC Possibly R? They'd of been elected in 2018, but Republicans managed to win more House votes in the state that year. This one is iffy.
ND R
OH R
OK R
OR D
PA Most likely D
RI D
SC R
SD R
TN R
TX R
UT R
VT D
VA D
WA D
WV R
WI Possibly D? Would have been elected in 2020. A slight overperformance downballot from Trump could change this though. If the R Senate candidate were to outperform Trump by the same amount that John James did in nearby Michigan this would be an R win.
WY R

Ones I am not super sure about are IA 2018, NC 2018, and WI 2020.

In this case that's 25 more seats for each party. Both parties would have 75 seats. Harris would still the tie breaker. If the Democratic candidate were to win in NC 2018, with IA and Wi and every other state the same, then it is 76-74, but Manchin would still in a similar position.



The thing is that no dem ran in nc-3
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andjey
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #7 on: November 26, 2021, 03:19:13 AM »

Assuming all of the races are open seats

Class I (last election 2018)

AL: R
AK: R
AR: R
CO: D
GA: R
ID: R
IL: D
IA: R
KS: R
KY: R
LA: R
NH: D
NC: D

OK: R
OR: D
SC: R
SD: R


Class II (last election 2020)

AZ: D
CA: D
CT: D
FL: R
HI: D
IN: R
MD: D
MO: R
NV: D
NY: D
ND: R
OH: D
PA: D
UT: R
VT: D
WA: D
WI: D


Class III (last election 2016)
Winner in 2016 and rating for 2022

DE: D - Safe D
ME: D - Likely D
MA: D - Safe D
MI: D - Tossup
MN: D - Lean D
MS: R - Safe R
MT: R - Safe R
NE: R - Safe R
NJ: D - Safe D
NM: D - Lean D
RI: D - Safe D
TN: R - Safe R
TX: R - Likely R
VA: D - Likely D
WV: R - Safe R
WY: R - Safe R
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S019
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« Reply #8 on: November 26, 2021, 03:24:12 AM »



This is what I'd guess assuming I can't pick tossups
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