Which state is more likely to vote Republican in 2024?

[Utah Neolib]

Georgia

[Schiff for Senate]

Georgia, of course. Biden won by 0.21% in 2020 against a particularly bad fit for the state, in a high-stakes and high-turnout election. I don't think that will necessarily replicate itself in 2024; there may be a suburban backlash or at least lower turnout in the Atlanta area. Michigan, in contrast, may see some Obama/Trump/Trump voters return to their Democratic origins (maybe). Even if it doesn't I don't think the Democrats will do worse in 2024 than they did in 2020 (MI still voted to the right of the nation in 2020!). If the Obama/Trump/Trump suburb of Macomb County narrows the GOP margin (which it may well do; it was the weirdest suburb in the sense that it was the only major-city suburb to trend Republican in the Age of Trump), the margin might go up to, say, 3%. Even otherwise I don't think it's going to flip Republican. The margins alone make the obvious answer GA. The people who selected MI follow this reasoning - The Atlanta suburbs are growing explosively and are liberalizing. But the flaw with such reasoning is that while the area is growing, I don't think it's going to get much more Democratic - Trump accelarated the Democratic shift in the area, but he also may have picked up suburban moderate Republicans who return to the GOP in 2024 (although some may stay blue or stay home after January 6). Either way, the gigantic turnout of 2020 may not recur, and that alone can sink Democratic fortunes. A multitude of scenarios can easily result in a GOP pickup in Georgia, while in Michigan I can see the Democrats in 2024 potentially increasing their margin, or at least keeping it the same (worst case scenario, they blunder and the margin somehow decreases, in which case GA will certainly go red).

[DPKdebator]

Georgia's trends are very unfavorable for the GOP while Michigan's aren't, so Michigan.