Sarawak state of Malaysia elections Dec 18 2021

[jaichind]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Sarawak_state_election

There was talk of this election being delayed until 2022 but it just got announced that it will take place on Dec 18 2021.

UMNO is mostly not active here and has delegated the local Muslim tribal vote to PBB who used to lead the BN alliance.  After 2018 PBB split from BN and created a mostly anti-PH bloc called GPS.  GPS still mostly aligns with BN-PN nationally but clearly wants to be independent to negotiate the most amount of goodies for itself with the federal goverment.

Most likely BN will just not contest and de facto back GPS.  PN will most likely contest.

Players

GPS
  PBB  - Muslim tribals
  PRS - Christian tribals
  SUPP - Chinese
  PDP - Mostly Christian tribals with some Chinese support

PH
  PKR - Muslim and Christian tribals
  DAP - Chinese
  AMANAH - Liberal Muslim

PN
  PPBM - Muslim tribals
  PAS - Conservative Muslim

PSB - SUPP splinter - Chinese

GPS should win with ease with PH in shambles.  PPBM and PAS have very little roots here so they will cut much into the PBB vote.  SUPP and PBS have significant Chinese support so the Chinese vote will be split 3 says.  In 2018 PKR cut into the Christian tribal vote but most of that support seems to have flowed back to PRS.   I do not see any outcome other than a GPS landslide.

[jaichind]

One of my aunts on my father's side married a wealthy Sarawak Chinese landowner and moved to Sarawak back in the early 1980s when I was a kid.  I saw her once in the late 1980s when I was back on ROC visiting relatives at the same time she went back to ROC to run some errands.  I have had no contact with her since.  I always think of her when I read about the Sarawak Chinese vote.

[jaichind]

https://www.nst.com.my/news/politics/2021/11/748773/dap-pkr-amanah-use-respective-party-logos-sarawak-election

"DAP, PKR, Amanah to use respective party logos in Sarawak election"

It seems the PH parties concluded their respective bases in the state (Chinese for DAP and Christian tribals for PKR) does not mix well so it is better to run with their separate party symbols in their respective strongholds to try to save those seats.

Seat sharing will be PKR 47, DAP 26 and AMANAH 9

[jaichind]

2016 results

                    Contest      Win       Vote share
BN                    82           72          62.19%   
   PBB                  39          39
   PRS                  11          11
   SUPP                13           7
   SPDP                 6            4
   PBB(BN)            7             7
   UPP(BN)             6            4

PH                    84           10          30.16%
  PKR                  40             3
  DAP                 31              7
  AMANAH           13              0

PAS                  11             0           1.73%

UPP was a SUPP splinter and SUPP and PBS worked out a compromise where they could run as part of the BN alliance but only on the BN symbol.  They ran 6 candidates and won 4.  7 PBB candidates ran on the BN symbol and won.

In the meantime, after 2018 the Sarawak BN broke away from BN and became a pro-BN GPS alliance.  UPP completely broke from GPS and became PSB and will run separately.  In 2020 PKR split nationally with a faction joining PPBM.  1 of 3 PKR MLA joined PPBM while 2 PKR MLAs broke from PKR and joined PSB.  One of the DAP MLA also broke from DAP and will be running as a DAP rebel.

[jaichind]

One of my aunts on my father's side married a wealthy Sarawak Chinese landowner and moved to Sarawak back in the early 1980s when I was a kid.  I saw her once in the late 1980s when I was back on ROC visiting relatives at the same time she went back to ROC to run some errands.  I have had no contact with her since.  I always think of her when I read about the Sarawak Chinese vote.

Can’t you just get her phone number from your relatives in touch or reconnect on Facebook?

I never used FB.  My aunt is most likely in her late 60s and I doubt she uses FB.  I am not sure my father has had many contacts with her these last 20 years.

[jaichind]

The thing that is going against GPS this election is that long time BN and then GPS CM and leader of PBB Adenan Satem passed away in 2017 after the 2016 elections.  The current GPS CM and leader of PBB is Abang Johari Openg.  Adenan Satem was very popular and part of the 2018 BN setback in Sarawak was partly due to the fact that Adenan Satem was not leading the BN campaign. 

Still, GPS should win with 2/3 majority and the real battle would be can GPS hold on to the 72 seats it won in 2016.  The argument against would be that Abang Johari Openg is not as popular as Adenan Satem.  The argument for would be that PKR is falling apart and UPP should split the Chinese vote.

[jaichind]

Looks like BN and PPBM will back GPS and not run any candidates.  PAS will run candidates.  Some PPBM leaders will most likely run as independents. 

[jaichind]

Candidate by party are

GPS        82
  PBB       47
  SUPP     18
  PRS       11
  SPDP       6

PH          62
  PKR        28
  DAP        26
  AMANAH   8

PSB        70
PAS          1

PKR is so weakened by the splits of 2020 they failed to come up with candidates in a bunch of PBB Muslim tribal strongholds.    It seems PKR will end up not winning any seats.  DAP could win 5-10 seats and PSB perhaps 2-5.  GPS will win the rest.

[jaichind]

Count in progress.  Massive GPS landslide.  It seems GPS and PSB are gaining relative to PH. PSB taking over in all sorts of places as the main opposition to GPS including Muslim and Christian tribal areas with very few Chinese voters.  PSB is expanding beyond its Chinese base and taking over from PKR as the main opposition to GPS in many parts of the state.

[jaichind]

At the rate the count is going it would not surprise me if GPS sweeps all 82 seats where PSB splits the anti-GPS vote in DAP Chinese strongholds.  The Chinese vote is clearly splintering between DAP PSB and SUPP versus a DAP edge over SUPP in 2016.

[jaichind]

So far it is GPS 18 PSB 2.  PSB won a seat where a 2016 PKR winner defected to PBS and has won his seat.  PSB also won a seat it won as part of BN (now GPS) in 2016.

[jaichind]

GPS 25 PSB 2.  No votes counted in the DAP strongholds yet so we have no idea if DAP kept its core seats or will lose some of them to GPS or PSB.

[jaichind]

GPS ahead a DAP seat that it won narrowly in 2016 due to PSB splitting the anti-GPS vote.  Most likely a flip from DAP to GPS-SUPP.

[jaichind]

GPS 40 PSB 2.  Still nothing from DAP strongolds.

[jaichind]

GPS 52 PSB 2 DAP 2.  DAP holds two of its strongholds with a reduced margin.

[jaichind]

SUPP flips 3 DAP seats from 2016.  I think there are 1-2 more seats that DAP could win and around one more PSB  more seat that it could win.  So the opposition will be held to around 5-7 seats.

[jaichind]

GPS 59 PSB 2 DAP 2

[jaichind]

GPS 65 PSB 3 DAP 2

Another PKR defector to PSB wins.

[jaichind]

GPS 66 PSB 4 DAP 2

I think the remaining 10 seats all should go to GPS

[jaichind]

It seems the chaos in Peninsular Malaysia since 2020 has driven the Sarawak voters to consolidate behind GPS and PSB as Sarawak parties that will defend Sarawak interests against Peninsular Malaysia politics.  PH is associated with Peninsular Malaysia and got smashed as a result.  PSB is now the main opposition to GPS.

[jaichind]

GPS 72 PSB 4 DAP 2

[jaichind]

GPS 75 PSB 4 DAP 2

Only 1 seat left and it is a GPS win for sure.

[jaichind]

The last seat called

GPS 76 PSB 4 DAP 2

[jaichind]

                 2021                                2016
           Seats  Votes share           Seats  Vote share
GPS       76       61.26%                72         62.19%
PSB         4       18.69%
PH           2       10.48%                10         30.16%
PBK         0         5.46%

PSB was part of GPS in 2016.  PBK is pro-independence.

Major shift toward Sarawak regionalism with the PBK doing very well and PSB taking over from PH as the main opposition force.

[jaichind]

There is one danger for BN in these results.  Namely with PH imploding in Sarawak and minus a future PH-PSB alliance PH is no longer GPS main rival in Sarawak. This frees GPS to ally with whichever Peninsular Malaysia bloc that is the highest bidder.  BN cannot count on GPS to pad its majority in the midterm future without paying a price.