Definitely the former for me. While ME-2 moved slightly left and NE-2 slightly right from 2020 based on redistricting, I simply don't see a populist Republican losing ME-2 in very many circumstances while I could see NE-2 flipping if the national environment gets bad enough for Biden (or Harris).
I tend to agree: ME-2 voted for Trump by a higher margin than NE-2 for Biden in 2020 (a somewhat Democrat-friendly year). And, Rs seem to have more of a path to gaining back voters in NE-2 than Ds in ME-2. That said neither seems very likely, especially if Trump is on the ballot.
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