Kelly+1 over Generic Republican

[S019]

https://twitter.com/polltrackerusa/status/1463217825963810819?s=21


Pretty useless with the undecideds, but probably a good snapshot of the where the race stands right now.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Blows away MT Treasurer thread about Brnovich whom is being supoena by Commission

[MT Treasurer]

Worth noting that this is very close to the GCB (37% GOP, 36% DEM) and the responses to the which party voters believe "generally does a better job of governing Arizona" question (41% GOP, 40% DEM), so it’s not like Kelly is notably outperforming the "generic" questions or significantly more popular than Generic D. Being at 40% in a Biden +<0.5 state in which your party's president has a double-digit disapproval rating is the other bad news for Kelly here.

[President Johnson]

Totally useless with the undecideds. Come on, man.

[Hollywood]

Worth noting that this is very close to the GCB (37% GOP, 36% DEM) and the responses to the which party voters believe "generally does a better job of governing Arizona" question (41% GOP, 40% DEM), so it’s not like Kelly is notably outperforming the "generic" questions or significantly more popular than Generic D. Being at 40% in a Biden +<0.5 state in which your party's president has a double-digit disapproval rating is the other bad news for Kelly here.

The loss of voters for Democrats due to inactivity is accelerating while the loss for GOP voters has started to reverse into gains.  Dems lost 1,600 voters while GOP gained 8,200 voters, and GOP gains and D losses have also accelerated. https://azsos.gov/sites/default/files/State_Voter_Registration_October_2021.pdf

The poll in Arizona shows the same trends we saw in Virginia.  There's an 8-15% somewhat to very motivated voter lead for GOP, and a 4% unlikely to vote lead for Democrats.  You take into account exit polls from last 8 years, then it's pretty easy to see the GOP with a 4-6 point lead over the Democrats as long as the Elephant doesn't campaign with Trump. 

Lastly, it's worth noting that polls forcing undecideds to choose a candidate have become very ugly for Democrats.  Just check out the Trump v. Biden polls.  Whenever people are forced, Trump hovers are 50 percent.  I think the D pollsters are doing D candidates a favor.

[2016]

Worth noting that this is very close to the GCB (37% GOP, 36% DEM) and the responses to the which party voters believe "generally does a better job of governing Arizona" question (41% GOP, 40% DEM), so it’s not like Kelly is notably outperforming the "generic" questions or significantly more popular than Generic D. Being at 40% in a Biden +<0.5 state in which your party's president has a double-digit disapproval rating is the other bad news for Kelly here.

The loss of voters for Democrats due to inactivity is accelerating while the loss for GOP voters has started to reverse into gains.  Dems lost 1,600 voters while GOP gained 8,200 voters, and GOP gains and D losses have also accelerated. https://azsos.gov/sites/default/files/State_Voter_Registration_October_2021.pdf

The poll in Arizona shows the same trends we saw in Virginia.  There's an 8-15% somewhat to very motivated voter lead for GOP, and a 4% unlikely to vote lead for Democrats.  You take into account exit polls from last 8 years, then it's pretty easy to see the GOP with a 4-6 point lead over the Democrats as long as the Elephant doesn't campaign with Trump. 

Lastly, it's worth noting that polls forcing undecideds to choose a candidate have become very ugly for Democrats.  Just check out the Trump v. Biden polls.  Whenever people are forced, Trump hovers are 50 percent.  I think the D pollsters are doing D candidates a favor.

Nonwithstanding that Biden only has a 43 % Favorable Rating with AZ Voters, his Approvals with Independents (who pushed him over the Top in 2020) has declined sharply. If this continues either Blake Masters or Mark Brnovich will beat him!

[Hollywood]

Worth noting that this is very close to the GCB (37% GOP, 36% DEM) and the responses to the which party voters believe "generally does a better job of governing Arizona" question (41% GOP, 40% DEM), so it’s not like Kelly is notably outperforming the "generic" questions or significantly more popular than Generic D. Being at 40% in a Biden +<0.5 state in which your party's president has a double-digit disapproval rating is the other bad news for Kelly here.

The loss of voters for Democrats due to inactivity is accelerating while the loss for GOP voters has started to reverse into gains.  Dems lost 1,600 voters while GOP gained 8,200 voters, and GOP gains and D losses have also accelerated. https://azsos.gov/sites/default/files/State_Voter_Registration_October_2021.pdf

The poll in Arizona shows the same trends we saw in Virginia.  There's an 8-15% somewhat to very motivated voter lead for GOP, and a 4% unlikely to vote lead for Democrats.  You take into account exit polls from last 8 years, then it's pretty easy to see the GOP with a 4-6 point lead over the Democrats as long as the Elephant doesn't campaign with Trump. 

Lastly, it's worth noting that polls forcing undecideds to choose a candidate have become very ugly for Democrats.  Just check out the Trump v. Biden polls.  Whenever people are forced, Trump hovers are 50 percent.  I think the D pollsters are doing D candidates a favor.

Nonwithstanding that Biden only has a 43 % Favorable Rating with AZ Voters, his Approvals with Independents (who pushed him over the Top in 2020) has declined sharply. If this continues either Blake Masters or Mark Brnovich will beat him!

You're right.  Biden's success in pushing independents towards the GOP, and even Trump, is enough for Rs to win without an uptick in Republican turnout. 

If it continues?  Oh God.  If it continues, the GOP is going to start carving out blue walls in the NE and Western states, as well as MN. 

Check out the European and US Covid-19 numbers now that were heading into December.  The GOP is going to run on it next year.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

[2016]

Worth noting that this is very close to the GCB (37% GOP, 36% DEM) and the responses to the which party voters believe "generally does a better job of governing Arizona" question (41% GOP, 40% DEM), so it’s not like Kelly is notably outperforming the "generic" questions or significantly more popular than Generic D. Being at 40% in a Biden +<0.5 state in which your party's president has a double-digit disapproval rating is the other bad news for Kelly here.

The loss of voters for Democrats due to inactivity is accelerating while the loss for GOP voters has started to reverse into gains.  Dems lost 1,600 voters while GOP gained 8,200 voters, and GOP gains and D losses have also accelerated. https://azsos.gov/sites/default/files/State_Voter_Registration_October_2021.pdf

The poll in Arizona shows the same trends we saw in Virginia.  There's an 8-15% somewhat to very motivated voter lead for GOP, and a 4% unlikely to vote lead for Democrats.  You take into account exit polls from last 8 years, then it's pretty easy to see the GOP with a 4-6 point lead over the Democrats as long as the Elephant doesn't campaign with Trump. 

Lastly, it's worth noting that polls forcing undecideds to choose a candidate have become very ugly for Democrats.  Just check out the Trump v. Biden polls.  Whenever people are forced, Trump hovers are 50 percent.  I think the D pollsters are doing D candidates a favor.

Nonwithstanding that Biden only has a 43 % Favorable Rating with AZ Voters, his Approvals with Independents (who pushed him over the Top in 2020) has declined sharply. If this continues either Blake Masters or Mark Brnovich will beat him!

You're right.  Biden's success in pushing independents towards the GOP, and even Trump, is enough for Rs to win without an uptick in Republican turnout. 

If it continues?  Oh God.  If it continues, the GOP is going to start carving out blue walls in the NE and Western states, as well as MN. 

Check out the European and US Covid-19 numbers now that were heading into December.  The GOP is going to run on it next year.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Democrats won't like to hear it BUT right now we're heading into 2010 Territory. Republicans will pick up WINS everywhere from the Northeast, to Swing States, to the West, the Mountain Southwest, etc. if the current Trajectory continues.

[Hollywood]

Worth noting that this is very close to the GCB (37% GOP, 36% DEM) and the responses to the which party voters believe "generally does a better job of governing Arizona" question (41% GOP, 40% DEM), so it’s not like Kelly is notably outperforming the "generic" questions or significantly more popular than Generic D. Being at 40% in a Biden +<0.5 state in which your party's president has a double-digit disapproval rating is the other bad news for Kelly here.

The loss of voters for Democrats due to inactivity is accelerating while the loss for GOP voters has started to reverse into gains.  Dems lost 1,600 voters while GOP gained 8,200 voters, and GOP gains and D losses have also accelerated. https://azsos.gov/sites/default/files/State_Voter_Registration_October_2021.pdf

The poll in Arizona shows the same trends we saw in Virginia.  There's an 8-15% somewhat to very motivated voter lead for GOP, and a 4% unlikely to vote lead for Democrats.  You take into account exit polls from last 8 years, then it's pretty easy to see the GOP with a 4-6 point lead over the Democrats as long as the Elephant doesn't campaign with Trump. 

Lastly, it's worth noting that polls forcing undecideds to choose a candidate have become very ugly for Democrats.  Just check out the Trump v. Biden polls.  Whenever people are forced, Trump hovers are 50 percent.  I think the D pollsters are doing D candidates a favor.

Nonwithstanding that Biden only has a 43 % Favorable Rating with AZ Voters, his Approvals with Independents (who pushed him over the Top in 2020) has declined sharply. If this continues either Blake Masters or Mark Brnovich will beat him!

You're right.  Biden's success in pushing independents towards the GOP, and even Trump, is enough for Rs to win without an uptick in Republican turnout. 

If it continues?  Oh God.  If it continues, the GOP is going to start carving out blue walls in the NE and Western states, as well as MN. 

Check out the European and US Covid-19 numbers now that were heading into December.  The GOP is going to run on it next year.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Democrats won't like to hear it BUT right now we're heading into 2010 Territory. Republicans will pick up WINS everywhere from the Northeast, to Swing States, to the West, the Mountain Southwest, etc. if the current Trajectory continues.

I think the situation is way worse for Democrats right now than it was at the end of 2009 to 2010. We have a very bad economy with inflation that is going to get worse, and scary numbers of Covid-19 that has people in Europe and the US talking about potential lockdowns.  Biden does not have the same resume as accomplishments as Obama, has no idea what issues voters care about, and can't even communicate his policies to the American people. 

I have no idea what the Democrats could possibly run on in 2022.  Trump and January 6th?  I encourage Democrats to keep making that mistake every single day until the next election.  Democrats have managed to put Trump in a better position than he held in 2016. 

[2016]

Worth noting that this is very close to the GCB (37% GOP, 36% DEM) and the responses to the which party voters believe "generally does a better job of governing Arizona" question (41% GOP, 40% DEM), so it’s not like Kelly is notably outperforming the "generic" questions or significantly more popular than Generic D. Being at 40% in a Biden +<0.5 state in which your party's president has a double-digit disapproval rating is the other bad news for Kelly here.

The loss of voters for Democrats due to inactivity is accelerating while the loss for GOP voters has started to reverse into gains.  Dems lost 1,600 voters while GOP gained 8,200 voters, and GOP gains and D losses have also accelerated. https://azsos.gov/sites/default/files/State_Voter_Registration_October_2021.pdf

The poll in Arizona shows the same trends we saw in Virginia.  There's an 8-15% somewhat to very motivated voter lead for GOP, and a 4% unlikely to vote lead for Democrats.  You take into account exit polls from last 8 years, then it's pretty easy to see the GOP with a 4-6 point lead over the Democrats as long as the Elephant doesn't campaign with Trump. 

Lastly, it's worth noting that polls forcing undecideds to choose a candidate have become very ugly for Democrats.  Just check out the Trump v. Biden polls.  Whenever people are forced, Trump hovers are 50 percent.  I think the D pollsters are doing D candidates a favor.

Nonwithstanding that Biden only has a 43 % Favorable Rating with AZ Voters, his Approvals with Independents (who pushed him over the Top in 2020) has declined sharply. If this continues either Blake Masters or Mark Brnovich will beat him!

You're right.  Biden's success in pushing independents towards the GOP, and even Trump, is enough for Rs to win without an uptick in Republican turnout. 

If it continues?  Oh God.  If it continues, the GOP is going to start carving out blue walls in the NE and Western states, as well as MN. 

Check out the European and US Covid-19 numbers now that were heading into December.  The GOP is going to run on it next year.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Democrats won't like to hear it BUT right now we're heading into 2010 Territory. Republicans will pick up WINS everywhere from the Northeast, to Swing States, to the West, the Mountain Southwest, etc. if the current Trajectory continues.

I think the situation is way worse for Democrats right now than it was at the end of 2009 to 2010. We have a very bad economy with inflation that is going to get worse, and scary numbers of Covid-19 that has people in Europe and the US talking about potential lockdowns.  Biden does not have the same resume as accomplishments as Obama, has no idea what issues voters care about, and can't even communicate his policies to the American people. 

I have no idea what the Democrats could possibly run on in 2022.  Trump and January 6th?  I encourage Democrats to keep making that mistake every single day until the next election.  Democrats have managed to put Trump in a better position than he held in 2016. 

Of Course they will run on Trump but it won't work. It did not work in Virginia!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Worth noting that this is very close to the GCB (37% GOP, 36% DEM) and the responses to the which party voters believe "generally does a better job of governing Arizona" question (41% GOP, 40% DEM), so it’s not like Kelly is notably outperforming the "generic" questions or significantly more popular than Generic D. Being at 40% in a Biden +<0.5 state in which your party's president has a double-digit disapproval rating is the other bad news for Kelly here.

The loss of voters for Democrats due to inactivity is accelerating while the loss for GOP voters has started to reverse into gains.  Dems lost 1,600 voters while GOP gained 8,200 voters, and GOP gains and D losses have also accelerated. https://azsos.gov/sites/default/files/State_Voter_Registration_October_2021.pdf

The poll in Arizona shows the same trends we saw in Virginia.  There's an 8-15% somewhat to very motivated voter lead for GOP, and a 4% unlikely to vote lead for Democrats.  You take into account exit polls from last 8 years, then it's pretty easy to see the GOP with a 4-6 point lead over the Democrats as long as the Elephant doesn't campaign with Trump. 

Lastly, it's worth noting that polls forcing undecideds to choose a candidate have become very ugly for Democrats.  Just check out the Trump v. Biden polls.  Whenever people are forced, Trump hovers are 50 percent.  I think the D pollsters are doing D candidates a favor.

Nonwithstanding that Biden only has a 43 % Favorable Rating with AZ Voters, his Approvals with Independents (who pushed him over the Top in 2020) has declined sharply. If this continues either Blake Masters or Mark Brnovich will beat him!

You're right.  Biden's success in pushing independents towards the GOP, and even Trump, is enough for Rs to win without an uptick in Republican turnout. 

If it continues?  Oh God.  If it continues, the GOP is going to start carving out blue walls in the NE and Western states, as well as MN. 

Check out the European and US Covid-19 numbers now that were heading into December.  The GOP is going to run on it next year.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Democrats won't like to hear it BUT right now we're heading into 2010 Territory. Republicans will pick up WINS everywhere from the Northeast, to Swing States, to the West, the Mountain Southwest, etc. if the current Trajectory continues.

I think the situation is way worse for Democrats right now than it was at the end of 2009 to 2010. We have a very bad economy with inflation that is going to get worse, and scary numbers of Covid-19 that has people in Europe and the US talking about potential lockdowns.  Biden does not have the same resume as accomplishments as Obama, has no idea what issues voters care about, and can't even communicate his policies to the American people. 

I have no idea what the Democrats could possibly run on in 2022.  Trump and January 6th?  I encourage Democrats to keep making that mistake every single day until the next election.  Democrats have managed to put Trump in a better position than he held in 2016. 

Of Course they will run on Trump but it won't work. It did not work in Virginia!

Trump is being investigated  on insurrectionist and Biden wo t ne at 41 percent forever

[Schiff for Senate]

A one-point lead in a poll where like a fifth of voters are undecided means absolutely nothing.
The race is and will remain a perfect tossup.

[Skill and Chance]

IMO this is more likely to flip than GA, maybe even NH now.

[SnowLabrador]

A one-point lead in a poll where like a fifth of voters are undecided means absolutely nothing.
The race is and will remain a perfect tossup.

Nah, it's Lean if not Likely R going by the national environment.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

A one-point lead in a poll where like a fifth of voters are undecided means absolutely nothing.
The race is and will remain a perfect tossup.

Nah, it's Lean if not Likely R going by the national environment.

The Election Is 336 days from now not Today

[Roll Roons]

IMO this is more likely to flip than GA, maybe even NH now.

Definitely. Kelly was arguably always more vulnerable than Warnock, and he's definitely more vulnerable than Hassan with Sununu not running.

[2016]

A one-point lead in a poll where like a fifth of voters are undecided means absolutely nothing.
The race is and will remain a perfect tossup.

If you look at National Polls as well as State Polls most of the Undecided are Non-College Whites and we know how they will vote come November 2022.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Can we get anyone but OH in Arizona?

They seem to be the only people putting out regular AZ polls

[Minnesota Mike]

Pretty useless with the undecideds, but probably a good snapshot of the where the race stands right now.

Not only useless because of the high number of undecideds but useless because you should ignore all real person vs generic person polls. Real people rarely measure up to the ideal candidate people imagine when given the generic option.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ryan is probably behind it's a Neutral not D year, but who knows with Josh Mandel or JD Vance if they can win this seat, the last poll had Mandel up on Ryan by 4

[Hollywood]

Worth noting that this is very close to the GCB (37% GOP, 36% DEM) and the responses to the which party voters believe "generally does a better job of governing Arizona" question (41% GOP, 40% DEM), so it’s not like Kelly is notably outperforming the "generic" questions or significantly more popular than Generic D. Being at 40% in a Biden +<0.5 state in which your party's president has a double-digit disapproval rating is the other bad news for Kelly here.

The loss of voters for Democrats due to inactivity is accelerating while the loss for GOP voters has started to reverse into gains.  Dems lost 1,600 voters while GOP gained 8,200 voters, and GOP gains and D losses have also accelerated. https://azsos.gov/sites/default/files/State_Voter_Registration_October_2021.pdf

The poll in Arizona shows the same trends we saw in Virginia.  There's an 8-15% somewhat to very motivated voter lead for GOP, and a 4% unlikely to vote lead for Democrats.  You take into account exit polls from last 8 years, then it's pretty easy to see the GOP with a 4-6 point lead over the Democrats as long as the Elephant doesn't campaign with Trump. 

Lastly, it's worth noting that polls forcing undecideds to choose a candidate have become very ugly for Democrats.  Just check out the Trump v. Biden polls.  Whenever people are forced, Trump hovers are 50 percent.  I think the D pollsters are doing D candidates a favor.

Nonwithstanding that Biden only has a 43 % Favorable Rating with AZ Voters, his Approvals with Independents (who pushed him over the Top in 2020) has declined sharply. If this continues either Blake Masters or Mark Brnovich will beat him!

You're right.  Biden's success in pushing independents towards the GOP, and even Trump, is enough for Rs to win without an uptick in Republican turnout. 

If it continues?  Oh God.  If it continues, the GOP is going to start carving out blue walls in the NE and Western states, as well as MN. 

Check out the European and US Covid-19 numbers now that were heading into December.  The GOP is going to run on it next year.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Democrats won't like to hear it BUT right now we're heading into 2010 Territory. Republicans will pick up WINS everywhere from the Northeast, to Swing States, to the West, the Mountain Southwest, etc. if the current Trajectory continues.

I think the situation is way worse for Democrats right now than it was at the end of 2009 to 2010. We have a very bad economy with inflation that is going to get worse, and scary numbers of Covid-19 that has people in Europe and the US talking about potential lockdowns.  Biden does not have the same resume as accomplishments as Obama, has no idea what issues voters care about, and can't even communicate his policies to the American people. 

I have no idea what the Democrats could possibly run on in 2022.  Trump and January 6th?  I encourage Democrats to keep making that mistake every single day until the next election.  Democrats have managed to put Trump in a better position than he held in 2016. 

Of Course they will run on Trump but it won't work. It did not work in Virginia!

Trump is being investigated  on insurrectionist and Biden wo t ne at 41 percent forever

Alright.  Let me clarify.  I have no idea what the Democrats are going to run on in 2022 that helps them win these elections. 

At this point, I encourage Democrats to investigate, arrest and imprison Donald Trump.  I couldn't write a better strategy for the GOP, because they already wrote it in VA.  The M-Fer is doing in better polls than I could have possibly imagine.  Going after him takes him out of politics for the more polished candidates that will attract moderate voters on important issues, while ensuring that every beard neck comes out on election day.  Who and where are people going to watch the show trial of Trump?  CNN, MSNBC?  lol. 

I think every lean-right member on the forum wishes Mandela was the leader of the Democrat Party.   

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Too bad, generic Republican doesn't exist in Arizona.

[ctherainbow]

It will be interesting to see if we can keep a Democratic astronaut in Congress, or if Kelly will Nelson himself.

Also, the quote wall portion of this thread is the most vigorous circle jerk I’ve seen since the last time I was at the Eagle in NYC.   😂

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Too bad, generic Republican doesn't exist in Arizona.

Instead there is Chemtrail Kelly and criminal Joe Arpaio.