What contributed to Trump's defeat in Wisconsin? (user search)
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  What contributed to Trump's defeat in Wisconsin? (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Poll
Question: This alongside MI and PA will have similar reasons.
#1
Black voters turning out in Milwaukee
 
#2
Declining rural populations making him harder to overcome the Milwaukee and madison population
 
#3
WOW suburbs not as crimson red as in past elections
 
#4
College to college educated voters turning out in record numbers
 
#5
Kenosha unrest
 
#6
Tariffs that hurt the farmers there
 
#7
WI Being the epicenter of COVID during the campaign season
 
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results

Total Voters: 48

Author Topic: What contributed to Trump's defeat in Wisconsin?  (Read 1273 times)
ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,107
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
« on: November 23, 2021, 02:13:19 PM »

Option 1 is literally false. If you look at the heavily black precincts in Milwaukee, turnout actually went DOWN from 2016, in addition to Trump doing slightly better than in 2016. You find this in some heavily black urban areas across the midwest as well. But, turnout went up enough in the white areas of the city and county for it to not be noticeable on a county level.

Most of Trump's defeat can be explained the same way it can in other states. Rich, college-educated suburbanites fleeing him in droves worse than in 2016 and R's in 2018. These are people who are traditional/habitual Republican voters who likely held their nose in 2016, but couldn't tolerate him once in office. If it were really about the tariffs broadly and not in select individual cases hurting farmers, you'd see more rural bounceback, but in fact you saw rural areas in Wisconsin swing slightly more towards Trump vs 2016.
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ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,107
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
« Reply #1 on: November 23, 2021, 02:28:34 PM »


Yep. It even swung more right than Racine, which is less white than Kenosha.

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