What contributed to Trump's defeat in Wisconsin?
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November 26, 2021, 06:10:37 PM

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  2020 U.S. Presidential Election (Moderators: Likely Voter, TJ in Oregon, YE)
  What contributed to Trump's defeat in Wisconsin?
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Poll
Question: This alongside MI and PA will have similar reasons.
#1
Black voters turning out in Milwaukee
 
#2
Declining rural populations making him harder to overcome the Milwaukee and madison population
 
#3
WOW suburbs not as crimson red as in past elections
 
#4
College to college educated voters turning out in record numbers
 
#5
Kenosha unrest
 
#6
Tariffs that hurt the farmers there
 
#7
WI Being the epicenter of COVID during the campaign season
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 31

Author Topic: What contributed to Trump's defeat in Wisconsin?  (Read 347 times)
thebeloitmoderate
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« on: November 22, 2021, 04:17:54 PM »

Option 6 is a clear hint that Trump was going to lose WI if not for COVID Handling
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #1 on: November 22, 2021, 04:56:06 PM »

Some combination of #1 and #3 mostly
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #2 on: November 23, 2021, 02:13:19 PM »

Option 1 is literally false. If you look at the heavily black precincts in Milwaukee, turnout actually went DOWN from 2016, in addition to Trump doing slightly better than in 2016. You find this in some heavily black urban areas across the midwest as well. But, turnout went up enough in the white areas of the city and county for it to not be noticeable on a county level.

Most of Trump's defeat can be explained the same way it can in other states. Rich, college-educated suburbanites fleeing him in droves worse than in 2016 and R's in 2018. These are people who are traditional/habitual Republican voters who likely held their nose in 2016, but couldn't tolerate him once in office. If it were really about the tariffs broadly and not in select individual cases hurting farmers, you'd see more rural bounceback, but in fact you saw rural areas in Wisconsin swing slightly more towards Trump vs 2016.
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Very Pessimistic 😭😭😭😭 Xing
xingkerui
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« Reply #3 on: November 23, 2021, 02:19:07 PM »

2, 3, and 4. What happened in Kenosha helped Trump.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #4 on: November 23, 2021, 02:28:34 PM »


Yep. It even swung more right than Racine, which is less white than Kenosha.

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thebeloitmoderate
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« Reply #5 on: November 23, 2021, 03:34:07 PM »

Option 1 is literally false. If you look at the heavily black precincts in Milwaukee, turnout actually went DOWN from 2016, in addition to Trump doing slightly better than in 2016. You find this in some heavily black urban areas across the midwest as well. But, turnout went up enough in the white areas of the city and county for it to not be noticeable on a county level.

Most of Trump's defeat can be explained the same way it can in other states. Rich, college-educated suburbanites fleeing him in droves worse than in 2016 and R's in 2018. These are people who are traditional/habitual Republican voters who likely held their nose in 2016, but couldn't tolerate him once in office. If it were really about the tariffs broadly and not in select individual cases hurting farmers, you'd see more rural bounceback, but in fact you saw rural areas in Wisconsin swing slightly more towards Trump vs 2016.
This is right Milwaukee's black population has been going down in recent years either moving to the Chicago area or more generally the south in droves.
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iamaganster123
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« Reply #6 on: November 23, 2021, 03:45:41 PM »

2,3, and 7 most likely
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BG-NY
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« Reply #7 on: November 24, 2021, 04:13:30 AM »

Would bet every dollar to my name that #6 had nothing to do with it. Tariffs made it closer than it would have been otherwise, and Trump consistently increased subsidies as well as included ag/dairy buys in USMCA/phase one of the China deal. This was always a preposterous narrative to me.

I think it was a combination of #3 and #7. #3 always surprised me, since other similar suburbs nationally voted more D, and with the nationalization of politics WOW was due for normalization.
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still cringenat
cringenat
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« Reply #8 on: November 24, 2021, 04:37:41 PM »

4 and 3, Trump was a poor fit for WOW and there was truly explosive turnout against Trump in Dane. He could've carried the state if only dealing with one of these factors, but not both.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #9 on: November 25, 2021, 10:53:27 AM »

#1 and #3, though one may argue it was simply "by default". Given how close the state turned out to be, it could have gone either way. Trump for sure exceeded expectations, although the results clearly show his 2016 win there wasn't a fluke.
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Senator Spark
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« Reply #10 on: November 25, 2021, 01:08:34 PM »

Trump fell short in WI primarily due to him not doing well enough in the WOW. He did not carry the traditional GOP coalition of voters such as the wealthy and educated. Many of these wealthy suburbanites broke for Biden, and it did not help that voters who were college-educated turned out in high numbers.
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CentristRepublican
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« Reply #11 on: November 25, 2021, 04:28:52 PM »

1, 3, 4 and 5, but 3 and 4 kind of connect to each other.
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