FL — StPetepolls: DeSantis +6

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/PollsandOdds/status/1462791981055324166?t=Nv4ETq66r24eXxhntC...

[Matty]

This poll has a pretty strong D bias too

Gop will do well in flarda in 2022

[2016]

This poll has a pretty strong D bias too

Gop will do well in flarda in 2022

Sample is D 37/I 25/R 38

It's a R+1 Sample. No wonder they get those Results.

[Hollywood]

This poll has a pretty strong D bias too

Gop will do well in florida in 2022

I figure Republicans will take at least 6 or 7 House seats in Florida, and retain the Senate.

Democrats should be worried about all this polling information regarding racial and ethnic groups that have swung from D to R by 20-40 points, as well as the lack of enthusiasm among African American voters.  

A bright spot for Biden is that he actually did in the suburbs of Tampa, Jacksonville, and Orlando last election, but that improvement didn't make up the huge surge of Hispanic, Ethnic/Jewish White, mixed race and base Trump supporters hiding in Broward and Miami-Dade County.  

Republicans are improving with every minority group except AA, and they are going to crush in the suburbs.  Take a look at the Jersey suburbs near Philly in the Gubernotorial race, and the county elections in Buck County PA.  Democrats got a good licking in those areas.  It's likely that many Republican/Independent voters didn't think the party could win, so they didn't show up to the polls.  Happens a lot with conservatives in NJ.    

[Hollywood]

This poll has a pretty strong D bias too

Gop will do well in flarda in 2022

Sample is D 37/I 25/R 38

It's a R+1 Sample. No wonder they get those Results.

The poll is R+0.8 in 2022.  Those the correct Results. 

The active voter advantage should accelerate towards to R+2-4% on election day, and independent voters tend to lean towards the right. 

Rubio and DeSantis will likely win by a margin of 8-14 points. 

[TodayJunior]

Le sigh. Still not too late for Stephanie Murphy to enter.

[THG]

St Pete’s has consistently underestimated Republicans by around 5 points in every election, which is why I add 5 points to the GOP candidate in any one of their polls to gauge an accurate result.

DeSantis + 11 isn’t insane in the national environment that 2022 could hypothetically be.

[Continential]

Hopefully by next year, whoever wins the Democratic primary fundraises badly.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

St Pete’s has consistently underestimated Republicans by around 5 points in every election, which is why I add 5 points to the GOP candidate in any one of their polls to gauge an accurate result.

DeSantis + 11 isn’t insane in the national environment that 2022 could hypothetically be.

He's not winning by double digits in an R plus 3 state

[Biden his time]

Adding 4 points to their margin of victory (their usual error) would get DeSantis+10

Didn't believe this could happen before the Virginia and New Jersey elections, now I do

[Person Man]

I'm still going to say the R ticket wins by 7-8.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I'm still going to say the R ticket wins by 7-8.

I'm a Neutral 304 Map Scenario FL is plus 3, Biden is near 50/45, Cook has FL an R plus 3 state

[2016]

I'm still going to say the R ticket wins by 7-8.

I'm a Neutral 304 Map Scenario FL is plus 3, Biden is near 50/45, Cook has FL an R plus 3 state

2022 won't be neutral. Show us some evidence it will be neutral.

[President Johnson]

Safe Republican

[2016]

Safe Republican

Nah, I'd say likely. A lot will depend on Omicron Variant but given the Symtoms are mild and it isn't as severe as Delta it probably won't change too much.

[Rookie Yinzer]

FL is a lost cause. The Dem candidate is so DOA if I lived in FL I would vote DeSantis just to troll and say I voted for the winning candidate.

[Hollywood]

FL is a lost cause. The Dem candidate is so DOA if I lived in FL I would vote DeSantis just to troll and say I voted for the winning candidate.

My move is to vote in the Democrat Primaries so I can be part of the part of the process in selecting the Democrat nominee most in line with my core values, or at the very least expressing some interesting or revolutionary ideas. 

At the end of the day, people are going to vote for DeSantis for the reasons you expressed.  People like to invest in a winning candidate, and most don't believe Democrats have a chance in FL cause they don't.

The only reason Democrats are doing somewhat better than expected in these polls is due to the fact that they intend to run a Republican that switched to Independent and then Democrat.  Crist is mainly known as a power hungry turncoat devoid of any real morals, principles or policy interests other than representing corporate interests disguised behind the veil of Democrat and liberal anti-corporatist dogma, whether or not the dogma is just, moral or correct.  It's just optics. 

[TodayJunior]

FL is a lost cause. The Dem candidate is so DOA if I lived in FL I would vote DeSantis just to troll and say I voted for the winning candidate.

WOOOOWWWWW!!! Aren’t you just a breath of fresh air. Surely you jest.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

FL is a lost cause. The Dem candidate is so DOA if I lived in FL I would vote DeSantis just to troll and say I voted for the winning candidate.

Yeah six pts is so large, that DeSantis didn't comeback from Gillum with a mnth left six pts down, it's not a list cause

[Hollywood]

FL is a lost cause. The Dem candidate is so DOA if I lived in FL I would vote DeSantis just to troll and say I voted for the winning candidate.

Yeah six pts is so large, that DeSantis didn't comeback from Gillum with a mnth left six pts down, it's not a list cause

Yeah Wow.  It's surprising how Democrats are so weak in Florida that they couldn't win the state when the nation was almost a D+9.  Crazy how the poll underestimated him until the last week of the campaign.  It's not like polls tighten up back to reality right for election day. lol.  You've posting for how many years? 

[2016]

FL is a lost cause. The Dem candidate is so DOA if I lived in FL I would vote DeSantis just to troll and say I voted for the winning candidate.

My move is to vote in the Democrat Primaries so I can be part of the part of the process in selecting the Democrat nominee most in line with my core values, or at the very least expressing some interesting or revolutionary ideas. 

At the end of the day, people are going to vote for DeSantis for the reasons you expressed.  People like to invest in a winning candidate, and most don't believe Democrats have a chance in FL cause they don't.

The only reason Democrats are doing somewhat better than expected in these polls is due to the fact that they intend to run a Republican that switched to Independent and then Democrat.  Crist is mainly known as a power hungry turncoat devoid of any real morals, principles or policy interests other than representing corporate interests disguised behind the veil of Democrat and liberal anti-corporatist dogma, whether or not the dogma is just, moral or correct.  It's just optics. 

Crist is the easiest Candidate to beat for us for the reasons you just outlined here, that he is a Turncoast.
The most important Election in FL was 2018. Why? The new Governor could appoint 3 State Supreme Court Justices. DeSantis has made the FL SC permanently Conservative.
Even if by some miracle Democrats win the Governor Races Republicans would still have the State Legislature & FL SC meaning Crist wouldn't get anything done and everything he does would be sued in Court.

[Hollywood]

FL is a lost cause. The Dem candidate is so DOA if I lived in FL I would vote DeSantis just to troll and say I voted for the winning candidate.

My move is to vote in the Democrat Primaries so I can be part of the part of the process in selecting the Democrat nominee most in line with my core values, or at the very least expressing some interesting or revolutionary ideas. 

At the end of the day, people are going to vote for DeSantis for the reasons you expressed.  People like to invest in a winning candidate, and most don't believe Democrats have a chance in FL cause they don't.

The only reason Democrats are doing somewhat better than expected in these polls is due to the fact that they intend to run a Republican that switched to Independent and then Democrat.  Crist is mainly known as a power hungry turncoat devoid of any real morals, principles or policy interests other than representing corporate interests disguised behind the veil of Democrat and liberal anti-corporatist dogma, whether or not the dogma is just, moral or correct.  It's just optics. 

Crist is the easiest Candidate to beat for us for the reasons you just outlined here, that he is a Turncoast.
The most important Election in FL was 2018. Why? The new Governor could appoint 3 State Supreme Court Justices. DeSantis has made the FL SC permanently Conservative.
Even if by some miracle Democrats win the Governor Races Republicans would still have the State Legislature & FL SC meaning Crist wouldn't get anything done and everything he does would be sued in Court.

Excellent post.  Christ only had a chance in 2018 cause it was a strongly D cycle where the Republicans put up a very weak candidate, Rick Scott, who had just as much corporate support as Christ that came from the pharmaceutical and medical insurance industries.  That election was really about which special interest group had the most amount of ammunition, but the fact that nobody could trust Benedict Christ made a difference.  There's no point to Christ gubernatorial victory.  Everywhere that isn't a D supermajority in Florida is a F-ing amazing place to live, start a career, and build a family.     

I'm working on 2022 campaign groundwork in my area.  We've registered a lot of lean right Independents that hate Joe Biden and many are jokingly referred to as political refugees from Northern D states.  We then creeped onto college campuses cause we figured more right-leaners would attend classes as opposed to D-leaners that would prefer to take classes online.   We hit the jackpot at Nova Southeastern and Broward Community College.  We didn't even promote the F Joe Biden chants.  It just happened organically.    Zero push back from Democrats.  Not even an evil eye.   The number one issue among these hungry, student debtors that mostly commute to school was the high price of food, gas, and housing.  For some reason, these kids believe they're F-ed after college.  You'll hear a similar story from my friend working with the Democrat Party.  That nicely packaged bundle of young liberal students for Democrats to collect is just not available anymore.  I just wonder if it's the same in other states like MN, NC, PA, WI, and MI?

[2016]

FL is a lost cause. The Dem candidate is so DOA if I lived in FL I would vote DeSantis just to troll and say I voted for the winning candidate.

My move is to vote in the Democrat Primaries so I can be part of the part of the process in selecting the Democrat nominee most in line with my core values, or at the very least expressing some interesting or revolutionary ideas. 

At the end of the day, people are going to vote for DeSantis for the reasons you expressed.  People like to invest in a winning candidate, and most don't believe Democrats have a chance in FL cause they don't.

The only reason Democrats are doing somewhat better than expected in these polls is due to the fact that they intend to run a Republican that switched to Independent and then Democrat.  Crist is mainly known as a power hungry turncoat devoid of any real morals, principles or policy interests other than representing corporate interests disguised behind the veil of Democrat and liberal anti-corporatist dogma, whether or not the dogma is just, moral or correct.  It's just optics. 

Crist is the easiest Candidate to beat for us for the reasons you just outlined here, that he is a Turncoast.
The most important Election in FL was 2018. Why? The new Governor could appoint 3 State Supreme Court Justices. DeSantis has made the FL SC permanently Conservative.
Even if by some miracle Democrats win the Governor Races Republicans would still have the State Legislature & FL SC meaning Crist wouldn't get anything done and everything he does would be sued in Court.

Excellent post.  Christ only had a chance in 2018 cause it was a strongly D cycle where the Republicans put up a very weak candidate, Rick Scott, who had just as much corporate support as Christ that came from the pharmaceutical and medical insurance industries.  That election was really about which special interest group had the most amount of ammunition, but the fact that nobody could trust Benedict Christ made a difference.  There's no point to Christ gubernatorial victory.  Everywhere that isn't a D supermajority in Florida is a F-ing amazing place to live, start a career, and build a family.     

I'm working on 2022 campaign groundwork in my area.  We've registered a lot of lean right Independents that hate Joe Biden and many are jokingly referred to as political refugees from Northern D states.  We then creeped onto college campuses cause we figured more right-leaners would attend classes as opposed to D-leaners that would prefer to take classes online.   We hit the jackpot at Nova Southeastern and Broward Community College.  We didn't even promote the F Joe Biden chants.  It just happened organically.    Zero push back from Democrats.  Not even an evil eye.   The number one issue among these hungry, student debtors that mostly commute to school was the high price of food, gas, and housing.  For some reason, these kids believe they're F-ed after college.  You'll hear a similar story from my friend working with the Democrat Party.  That nicely packaged bundle of young liberal students for Democrats to collect is just not available anymore.  I just wonder if it's the same in other states like MN, NC, PA, WI, and MI?

I don't blame them. Manchin has to stop this BBB Crap. We have to deal with Inflation and not these liberal, social gimmicks.

[Hollywood]

FL is a lost cause. The Dem candidate is so DOA if I lived in FL I would vote DeSantis just to troll and say I voted for the winning candidate.

My move is to vote in the Democrat Primaries so I can be part of the part of the process in selecting the Democrat nominee most in line with my core values, or at the very least expressing some interesting or revolutionary ideas. 

At the end of the day, people are going to vote for DeSantis for the reasons you expressed.  People like to invest in a winning candidate, and most don't believe Democrats have a chance in FL cause they don't.

The only reason Democrats are doing somewhat better than expected in these polls is due to the fact that they intend to run a Republican that switched to Independent and then Democrat.  Crist is mainly known as a power hungry turncoat devoid of any real morals, principles or policy interests other than representing corporate interests disguised behind the veil of Democrat and liberal anti-corporatist dogma, whether or not the dogma is just, moral or correct.  It's just optics. 

Crist is the easiest Candidate to beat for us for the reasons you just outlined here, that he is a Turncoast.
The most important Election in FL was 2018. Why? The new Governor could appoint 3 State Supreme Court Justices. DeSantis has made the FL SC permanently Conservative.
Even if by some miracle Democrats win the Governor Races Republicans would still have the State Legislature & FL SC meaning Crist wouldn't get anything done and everything he does would be sued in Court.

Excellent post.  Christ only had a chance in 2018 cause it was a strongly D cycle where the Republicans put up a very weak candidate, Rick Scott, who had just as much corporate support as Christ that came from the pharmaceutical and medical insurance industries.  That election was really about which special interest group had the most amount of ammunition, but the fact that nobody could trust Benedict Christ made a difference.  There's no point to Christ gubernatorial victory.  Everywhere that isn't a D supermajority in Florida is a F-ing amazing place to live, start a career, and build a family.     

I'm working on 2022 campaign groundwork in my area.  We've registered a lot of lean right Independents that hate Joe Biden and many are jokingly referred to as political refugees from Northern D states.  We then creeped onto college campuses cause we figured more right-leaners would attend classes as opposed to D-leaners that would prefer to take classes online.   We hit the jackpot at Nova Southeastern and Broward Community College.  We didn't even promote the F Joe Biden chants.  It just happened organically.    Zero push back from Democrats.  Not even an evil eye.   The number one issue among these hungry, student debtors that mostly commute to school was the high price of food, gas, and housing.  For some reason, these kids believe they're F-ed after college.  You'll hear a similar story from my friend working with the Democrat Party.  That nicely packaged bundle of young liberal students for Democrats to collect is just not available anymore.  I just wonder if it's the same in other states like MN, NC, PA, WI, and MI?

I don't blame them. Manchin has to stop this BBB Crap. We have to deal with Inflation and not these liberal, social gimmicks.

I just saw Mandela post a thread about how the Democrats will lose in 2022 and 2024 cause Republicans and Democrats are tied with Hispanic voters.  Now he's all like, "What do we do?" lol.  I think someone better check to see if his account was hacked.  Couldn't believe what I was seeing.   

Yeah.  Manchin is a heroic/evil genius that saw the poll numbers in early 2020 where most WVA voters wanted him to opposed Joe Biden.  Almost 50% of respondents.  Many Democrats don't see the problem with young voters just like they didn't see it with Hispanics and Suburban women in VA, because they prefer to listen to the propaganda instead of hard numbers clearly indicating that inflation and the economy has become an increasingly important top issue since the Spring that they weren't really taking seriously until the end of September.  At that point, you already had the energy and border crisis as well as the Afghanistan debacle. 

I play that Taliban military parade for all my new friends cause it's hilarious to people.  Also sad.  But more funny. 

[Hope For A New Era]

Seems about right.