Echelon Insights national poll: Biden 45% Trump 45%

[Mr. Morden]

Echelon Insights national poll, conducted Nov. 12-18:

https://60p3co1nax34ovc830mr2sak-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/November-2021-Omnibus-External-Crosstabs.pdf

https://twitter.com/EchelonInsights/status/1461780727327076355

https://twitter.com/EchelonInsights/status/1461780533147484160

[President Johnson]

Meh, but the entire polling picture definitely shows a decline in Biden's support. Not sure though Trump would come close to winning the popular vote.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Doesn't even matter 1000 days before and we can win wave insurance seats too

Pollsters love to poll GE polls and Approvals but won't give us state by state Senate or Gov polls like in ME, NC, OH, NV, GA

[Skill and Chance]

Meh, but the entire polling picture definitely shows a decline in Biden's support. Not sure though Trump would come close to winning the popular vote.

Trump would win the popular vote today (virtually any R would), but 3 years is an eternity in politics.  At this point, Obama and Bill Clinton both looked like they would lose and Bush Jr. looked like he was headed for a 1972/84 style landslide.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Meh, but the entire polling picture definitely shows a decline in Biden's support. Not sure though Trump would come close to winning the popular vote.

Trump would win the popular vote today (virtually any R would), but 3 years is an eternity in politics.  At this point, Obama and Bill Clinton both looked like they would lose and Bush Jr. looked like he was headed for a 1972/84 style landslide.

I'm not saying that Biden is not favored to win as an incumbent, but at this point Obama was at +7.6% and Clinton's at +5.4% compared to Biden's -9.4% (per 538). Obama's lowest approval was at -8.6%. Moreover, both Obama and to lesser degree Clinton had a slight EC edge, the opposite is likely true to Biden.

[Justin_Krunchski]

Well if the popular vote is tied, a Trump victory is 99% confirmed.

[Mr.Phips]

Meh, but the entire polling picture definitely shows a decline in Biden's support. Not sure though Trump would come close to winning the popular vote.

Trump would win the popular vote today (virtually any R would), but 3 years is an eternity in politics.  At this point, Obama and Bill Clinton both looked like they would lose and Bush Jr. looked like he was headed for a 1972/84 style landslide.

Obama and Clinton looked OK at this point.  Even in 2010/2011, Obama still either tied or narrowly led Romney in most polls.

[Skill and Chance]

Meh, but the entire polling picture definitely shows a decline in Biden's support. Not sure though Trump would come close to winning the popular vote.

Trump would win the popular vote today (virtually any R would), but 3 years is an eternity in politics.  At this point, Obama and Bill Clinton both looked like they would lose and Bush Jr. looked like he was headed for a 1972/84 style landslide.

I'm not saying that Biden is not favored to win as an incumbent, but at this point Obama was at +7.6% and Clinton's at +5.4% compared to Biden's -9.4% (per 538). Obama's lowest approval was at -8.6%. Moreover, both Obama and to lesser degree Clinton had a slight EC edge, the opposite is likely true to Biden.

Yes, this was incorrect.  Yet the fact that Obama and Clinton bottomed out in approval closer to the election means we shouldn't assume anything about 2024 this soon.