What contributed to Trump's loss in Arizona?
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  What contributed to Trump's loss in Arizona?
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Poll
Question: Out of all the swing states that Trump lost in 2020 this state and Georgia (which I will be doing a similar poll in a little bit) has drew Trump's anger and still questions this race but especially AZ in 2021 given the BS audit in Maricopa county. But wha
#1
College educated suburbanites angered at Trump
 
#2
Attacking the McCains which were extremely popular in the state
 
#3
Attacking Jeff Flake
 
#4
Hispanic voters worried about his COVID response and anti immigration
 
#5
Arpaio's pardon fallout
 
#6
Not enough rural people that are to T's voters demo groups
 
#7
LA/bay area refugees going to Arizona in a Calexit form.
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 54

Author Topic: What contributed to Trump's loss in Arizona?  (Read 1093 times)
thebeloitmoderate
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« on: November 20, 2021, 01:49:43 PM »

Above are the reasons
In my opinion it is likely Trump's attacks on Mccain family that contributed to more moderate trump voters who voted in 2016 for him turned off and voted for Biden instead.
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #1 on: November 20, 2021, 01:54:07 PM »

The first two options kind of go hand-in-hand. A lot of the people who were offended by Trump's attacks against the McCains happened to be college-educated suburbanites.
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thebeloitmoderate
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« Reply #2 on: November 20, 2021, 05:21:39 PM »

And also Trump's pardon of a controversial and extremely racist sheriff made several hispanics vote for Biden instead.
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #3 on: November 20, 2021, 05:27:03 PM »

Given how close it was in 2016 when Hillary did jacks*& and wasted time in NC and OH, it's really a bigger wonder why Biden almost lost.

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TML
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« Reply #4 on: November 20, 2021, 05:36:38 PM »

Remember that 2016 marked the first time in history that Maricopa County voted more Democratic than the state at-large. This county had been the main reason AZ voted Republican in almost every election since the second half of the 20th century, and that occurrence should have been a clear indication that the state was ripe for flipping due to suburban shifts toward Democrats that have previously caused states like CO and VA to flip in the late 2000s. Additionally, the fact that Democrats flipped a Senate seat there in 2018, combined with the fact that the loser of that Senate contest was then appointed to the other Senate seat which was up for a special election in 2020, gave Democrats extra confidence that they could flip this state in 2020 by contesting it sufficiently.
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Spark
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« Reply #5 on: November 25, 2021, 01:14:07 PM »

The first two options kind of go hand-in-hand. A lot of the people who were offended by Trump's attacks against the McCains happened to be college-educated suburbanites.
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Schiff for Senate
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« Reply #6 on: November 25, 2021, 04:14:43 PM »

The first two options kind of go hand-in-hand. A lot of the people who were offended by Trump's attacks against the McCains happened to be college-educated suburbanites.

Agreed. It's laughable to say that Hispanics delivered the state to Biden when they actually shifted hard rightward across the board, including in AZ, in 2020. If anything they actually made the margin a lot narrower than it would have been had they voted as blue as they did in 2016. Case in point: the very Hispanic Santa Cruz county swung more than 10 points to the right from 2016. As for the other options, I don't think Jeff Flake was that popular in AZ, and those angered by Trump's criticisms of him were probably on the fence or tilt Biden anyway. Voted for option 1 in the poll since as you said option 2 is basically a part of option 1.
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Pericles
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« Reply #7 on: November 28, 2021, 01:13:58 AM »

The first two options kind of go hand-in-hand. A lot of the people who were offended by Trump's attacks against the McCains happened to be college-educated suburbanites.

Given the nationwide shift, I doubt that college-educated whites would have swung much less against Trump even if he had been nice to McCain. Maybe it swung Arizona only because it was so close.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #8 on: November 28, 2021, 06:06:26 AM »

Seniors... and to some extent white middle-class suburban voters.

Also many 3rd Party Millennial Voters in 2016 disproportionally voted DEM in 2020.
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beesley
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« Reply #9 on: November 28, 2021, 06:53:38 AM »

None of the above - but the first one is closest. Certain demographics, especially college educated suburbanites moving away from the Republican party (with Trump sealing the deal) is my answer.

To a much lesser degree, Democrats contesting the state in a way they had not really done before.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #10 on: November 28, 2021, 06:45:33 PM »

Here are a few posts I made which broke down the Maricopa County numbers by municipality in the 2016 and 2020 PRES GEs:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=412697.msg7816458#msg7816458

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=412697.msg7816668#msg7816668
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Obama-Biden Democrat
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« Reply #11 on: November 29, 2021, 08:16:18 PM »

Arizona is one giant suburb, so Trump collapsing with college educated white suburbanites was going to cost him the state.
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« Reply #12 on: November 29, 2021, 09:12:54 PM »

The first two options kind of go hand-in-hand. A lot of the people who were offended by Trump's attacks against the McCains happened to be college-educated suburbanites.

Agreed. It's laughable to say that Hispanics delivered the state to Biden when they actually shifted hard rightward across the board, including in AZ, in 2020. If anything they actually made the margin a lot narrower than it would have been had they voted as blue as they did in 2016. Case in point: the very Hispanic Santa Cruz county swung more than 10 points to the right from 2016. As for the other options, I don't think Jeff Flake was that popular in AZ, and those angered by Trump's criticisms of him were probably on the fence or tilt Biden anyway. Voted for option 1 in the poll since as you said option 2 is basically a part of option 1.

Increased turnout among Latinos still helped flip the state, and the R shift among Maricopa County Latinos was much smaller than in other metros.
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Redban
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« Reply #13 on: December 23, 2021, 11:38:00 AM »

Option not included in the poll -- the Senate race. Democrats had this cool, charismatic candidate in Mark Kelly, the former astronaut. Republicans ran Martha McSally, whom Arizonians hated largely cause of the way she got appointed to the Senate after losing to Sinema in 2018.

If you watch the figures, Trump got roughly the same amount of votes that McSally did (though Biden ran behind Kelly). With a better GOP Senatorial candidate in AZ, I think they get a better chance.
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