Guess the previous county's location and demographics based on it's voting history

[GregTheGreat657]

1980: Reagan + 9
1984: Reagan + 29
1988: Bush + 9
1992: Bush + 4
1996: Clinton + 7
2000: Bush + 7
2004: Bush + 15
2008: McCain + 9
2012: Romney + 8
2016: Trump + 33
2020: Trump + 30

[GregTheGreat657]

1980: Reagan + 9
1984: Reagan + 29
1988: Bush + 9
1992: Bush + 4
1996: Clinton + 7
2000: Bush + 7
2004: Bush + 15
2008: McCain + 9
2012: Romney + 8
2016: Trump + 33
2020: Trump + 30

It’s giving like Rural Montana

That's actually a semirural county in Upstate NY.

1980: Reagan + 21
1984: Reagan + 23
1988: Bush + 16
1992: Bush + 9
1996: Dole + 4
2000: Bush + 9
2004: Bush + 8
2008: Obama + 9
2012: Obama + 6
2016: Clinton + 3
2020: Biden + 8

[GregTheGreat657]

1980: Reagan + 9
1984: Reagan + 29
1988: Bush + 9
1992: Bush + 4
1996: Clinton + 7
2000: Bush + 7
2004: Bush + 15
2008: McCain + 9
2012: Romney + 8
2016: Trump + 33
2020: Trump + 30

It’s giving like Rural Montana

That's actually a semirural county in Upstate NY.

1980: Reagan + 21
1984: Reagan + 23
1988: Bush + 16
1992: Bush + 9
1996: Dole + 4
2000: Bush + 9
2004: Bush + 8
2008: Obama + 9
2012: Obama + 6
2016: Clinton + 3
2020: Biden + 8

Definitely a suburban county, guessing something in Virginia or Georgia? Colorado?

That was actually Dauphin, PA

Do you have any counties for people to guess on?

[GregTheGreat657]

1980: Carter + 9
1984: Mondale + 5
1988: Dukakis + 19
1992: Clinton + 17
1996: Clinton + 4
2000: Bush + 18
2004: Bush + 27
2008: McCain + 47
2012: Romney + 54
2016: Trump + 62
2020: Trump + 64

Central Arkansas

85% Non-Hispanic White Alone
10% Non-Hispanic Black Alone
5% Other

How close was I?


1960: R+9.8
1964: D+27.5
1968: R+4.7
1972: R+28.8
1976: R+3.4
1980: R+22.7
1984: R+22.0
1988: R+14.4
1992: D+5.9
1996: D+20.2
2000: D+17.2
2004: R+0.7
2008: D+5.9
2012: D+6.7
2016: D+6.2
2020: D+1.7

Suburban NY?
(Without looking I’m guessing Rockland county)


60% Non Hispanic White
20% Hispanic
15% Black
5% Other


1980: R+22
1984: R+42
1988: R+21
1992: R+1
1996: D+3
2000: R+13
2004: R+17
2008: R+3
2012: R+11
2016: R+39
2020: R+36

It seems like a rural county in the Upper Midwest with these demographics:

95% White
2% Black
1% Hispanic
1% Asian
1% Native American/Other

1980: Reagan + 28
1984: Reagan + 36
1988: Bush + 22
1992: Bush + 5
1996: Dole + 11
2000: Bush + 18
2004: Bush + 12
2008: Obama + 3
2012: Romney + 6
2016: Trump + 3
2020: Biden + 5

[GregTheGreat657]

1980: Reagan + 28
1984: Reagan + 36
1988: Bush + 22
1992: Bush + 5
1996: Dole + 11
2000: Bush + 18
2004: Bush + 12
2008: Obama + 3
2012: Romney + 6
2016: Trump + 3
2020: Biden + 5

[GregTheGreat657]

1980: Reagan + 28
1984: Reagan + 36
1988: Bush + 22
1992: Bush + 5
1996: Dole + 11
2000: Bush + 18
2004: Bush + 12
2008: Obama + 3
2012: Romney + 6
2016: Trump + 3
2020: Biden + 5

I'm guessing a county in the Upper-Midwest with a population that's about 90% white, that was previously rural but is either in the exurbs of a major city or has a growing small city of its own.

And for the next county:

1960: Kennedy +34.3
1964: Johnson +45.4
1968: Humphrey +23.8
1972: Nixon +8.4
1976: Carter +20.7
1980: Reagan +0.1
1984: Reagan +0.4
1988: Dukakis +29.1
1992: Clinton +27.7
1996: Clinton +24.1
2000: Bush +6.2
2004: Bush +18.1
2008: McCain +8.0
2012: Romney +37.2
2016: Trump +44.5
2020: Trump +45.9

Would've been so much cooler had Carter in '80 and Mondale had won it, but any guesses?

It sounds like somewhere in Coal Country that is over 95% white and less than 20% have bachelor's degree or higher. My county was Leelanau, MI.

1980: Reagan + 8
1984: Reagan + 22
1988: Bush + 14
1992: Clinton + 4
1996: Clinton + 10
2000: Gore + 8
2004: Kerry + 2
2008: Obama + 6
2012: Romney + 1
2016: Trump + 13
2020: Trump + 14

[GregTheGreat657]

-SNIP-

It sounds like somewhere in Coal Country that is over 95% white and less than 20% have bachelor's degree or higher. My county was Leelanau, MI.

1980: Reagan + 8
1984: Reagan + 22
1988: Bush + 14
1992: Clinton + 4
1996: Clinton + 10
2000: Gore + 8
2004: Kerry + 2
2008: Obama + 6
2012: Romney + 1
2016: Trump + 13
2020: Trump + 14

Without looking, is it Volusia County, FL?

Last four elections suggest that to me

-SKIP-

Yeah, it is.

[GregTheGreat657]

1960: R+19.7
1964: D+24.5
1972: R+34.5
1976: D+1.3
1980: R+26.0
1984: R+47.2
1988: R+22.0
1992: R+20.5 (Ross Perot was second place)
1996: R+39.8
2000: R+43.8
2004: R+51.6
2008: R+35.3
2012: R+39.0
2016: R+31.0
2020: R+24.6

It seems like a DC exurb in Virginia that is about 70% white

[GregTheGreat657]

1980: Reagan + 15
1984: Reagan + 31
1988: Bush + 13
1992: Clinton + 5
1996: Clinton + 11
2000: Gore + 1
2004: Kerry + 2
2008: Obama + 19
2012: Obama + 9
2016: Trump + 4
2020: Trump + 3

[GregTheGreat657]

1980: Reagan + 15
1984: Reagan + 31
1988: Bush + 13
1992: Clinton + 5
1996: Clinton + 11
2000: Gore + 1
2004: Kerry + 2
2008: Obama + 19
2012: Obama + 9
2016: Trump + 4
2020: Trump + 3

Midwestern but semi-suburban (if it were rural I'd expect a larger rightward shift).

That was Isabella, MI

1980: Reagan + 7
1984: Reagan + 31
1988: Bush + 11
1992: Bush  + 7
1996: Clinton + 5
2000: Bush + 9
2004: Bush + 14
2008: McCain + 0.1
2012: Romney + 2
2016: Trump + 7
2020: Trump + < 0.1

[GregTheGreat657]

1980: Reagan + 15
1984: Reagan + 31
1988: Bush + 13
1992: Clinton + 5
1996: Clinton + 11
2000: Gore + 1
2004: Kerry + 2
2008: Obama + 19
2012: Obama + 9
2016: Trump + 4
2020: Trump + 3

Midwestern but semi-suburban (if it were rural I'd expect a larger rightward shift).

That was Isabella, MI

1980: Reagan + 7
1984: Reagan + 31
1988: Bush + 11
1992: Bush  + 7
1996: Clinton + 5
2000: Bush + 9
2004: Bush + 14
2008: McCain + 0.1
2012: Romney + 2
2016: Trump + 7
2020: Trump + < 0.1

I'm going to say either a rural area in New England, or a semi-suburban part of NY. Pretty white either way.

Fictional, but it'd be interesting to see the input:

2020: Trump+6
2016: Trump+5
2012: Romney+8
2008: McCain+13
2004: Bush+17
2000: Bush+20
1996: Dole+9
1992: Bush+14
1988: Bush+30
1984: Reagan+40
1980: Reagan+33
1976: Ford+17
1972: Nixon+55
1968: Nixon+32 (over Humphrey; he was about 60 points ahead of Wallace)
1964: Johnson+3
1960: Nixon+12

You were right about my county, which was Ontario, NY. I'd say your county would be in Utah, with a sizable Mormon population, but one that was nowhere near majority status in that county. Your county would be whiter than the national average

This one is also fictional:
1980: Carter + 4
1984: Mondale + 3
1988: Bush + 0.4
1992: Clinton + 6
1996: Clinton + 8
2000: Bush + 4
2004: Bush + 7
2008: Obama + 2
2012: Romney + 1
2016: Clinton + 1
2020: Biden + 7

[GregTheGreat657]

You were right about my county, which was Ontario, NY. I'd say your county would be in Utah, with a sizable Mormon population, but one that was nowhere near majority status in that county. Your county would be whiter than the national average

This one is also fictional:
1980: Carter + 4
1984: Mondale + 3
1988: Bush + 0.4
1992: Clinton + 6
1996: Clinton + 8
2000: Bush + 4
2004: Bush + 7
2008: Obama + 2
2012: Romney + 1
2016: Clinton + 1
2020: Biden + 7

I'm gonna say it's a Upper Peninsula/North Michigan County with a sizable city or semi suburb.

Mine is real

2020: Biden +19
2016: Clinton +15
2012: Obama +18
2008: Obama +18
2004: Kerry +7
2000: Gore +16
1996: Clinton +16
1992: Clinton +5
1988: Bush +18
1984: Reagan +22
1980: Reagan +13
1976: Carter +2
1972: Nixon +26
1968: Nixon +5
1964: Johnson +30
1960: Nixon +3
1956: Eisenhower +23
1952: Eisenhower +9

Southern suburb that is currently plurality black or has a small black majority

1980: Carter + 4
1984: Reagan + 13
1988: Dukakis + 4
1992: Clinton  + 13
1996: Clinton + 30
2000: Gore + 24
2004: Kerry + 12
2008: Obama + 17
2012: Obama + 18
2016: Trump + 1
2020: Biden + 8