Guess the previous county's location and demographics based on it's voting history (user search)
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  Guess the previous county's location and demographics based on it's voting history (search mode)
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Author Topic: Guess the previous county's location and demographics based on it's voting history  (Read 1205 times)
It’s so Joever
Forumlurker161
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Posts: 15,002


« on: November 21, 2021, 06:32:24 PM »

1980: Carter + 9
1984: Mondale + 5
1988: Dukakis + 19
1992: Clinton + 17
1996: Clinton + 4
2000: Bush + 18
2004: Bush + 27
2008: McCain + 47
2012: Romney + 54
2016: Trump + 62
2020: Trump + 64

Central Arkansas

85% Non-Hispanic White Alone
10% Non-Hispanic Black Alone
5% Other

How close was I?



1960: R+9.8
1964: D+27.5
1968: R+4.7
1972: R+28.8
1976: R+3.4
1980: R+22.7
1984: R+22.0
1988: R+14.4
1992: D+5.9
1996: D+20.2
2000: D+17.2
2004: R+0.7
2008: D+5.9
2012: D+6.7
2016: D+6.2
2020: D+1.7
Suburban NY?
(Without looking I’m guessing Rockland county)


60% Non Hispanic White
20% Hispanic
15% Black
5% Other


1980: R+22
1984: R+42
1988: R+21
1992: R+1
1996: D+3
2000: R+13
2004: R+17
2008: R+3
2012: R+11
2016: R+39
2020: R+36
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It’s so Joever
Forumlurker161
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,002


« Reply #1 on: November 21, 2021, 06:57:23 PM »

Suburban NY?
(Without looking I’m guessing Rockland county)


60% Non Hispanic White
20% Hispanic
15% Black
5% Other

Right on! Rockland County it is! And the racial breakdown:

60.9% Non-Hispanic White Alone
19.6% Hispanic of any race
10.0% Non-Hispanic Black Alone
6.0% Non-Hispanic Asian Alone
3.4% Other

Great job with the demographics too!

How'd you guess?

-SKIP-
The heavy R swing in 2020 limits much of the map.
The fact it was Republican except for 1964 when it was heavily Dem suggests it’s in the North. Al Gore dominating and then it slowly swinging R reminded me of Long Island, but Nassau and Suffolk don’t fit the 2020 results, then I thought of Orange and then Rockland because that had a heavy swing.
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It’s so Joever
Forumlurker161
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,002


« Reply #2 on: November 22, 2021, 09:44:14 PM »

1980: Carter + 9
1984: Mondale + 5
1988: Dukakis + 19
1992: Clinton + 17
1996: Clinton + 4
2000: Bush + 18
2004: Bush + 27
2008: McCain + 47
2012: Romney + 54
2016: Trump + 62
2020: Trump + 64

Central Arkansas

85% Non-Hispanic White Alone
10% Non-Hispanic Black Alone
5% Other

How close was I?



1960: R+9.8
1964: D+27.5
1968: R+4.7
1972: R+28.8
1976: R+3.4
1980: R+22.7
1984: R+22.0
1988: R+14.4
1992: D+5.9
1996: D+20.2
2000: D+17.2
2004: R+0.7
2008: D+5.9
2012: D+6.7
2016: D+6.2
2020: D+1.7
Suburban NY?
(Without looking I’m guessing Rockland county)


60% Non Hispanic White
20% Hispanic
15% Black
5% Other


1980: R+22
1984: R+42
1988: R+21
1992: R+1
1996: D+3
2000: R+13
2004: R+17
2008: R+3
2012: R+11
2016: R+39
2020: R+36
It seems like a rural county in the Upper Midwest with these demographics:

95% White
2% Black
1% Hispanic
1% Asian
1% Native American/Other

1980: Reagan + 28
1984: Reagan + 36
1988: Bush + 22
1992: Bush + 5
1996: Dole + 11
2000: Bush + 18
2004: Bush + 12
2008: Obama + 3
2012: Romney + 6
2016: Trump + 3
2020: Biden + 5
Yep! It was Lapeer MI.
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