Guess the previous county's location and demographics based on it's voting history
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November 26, 2021, 06:48:54 PM

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  Guess the previous county's location and demographics based on it's voting history
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Author Topic: Guess the previous county's location and demographics based on it's voting history  (Read 327 times)
SANTA IS A GLOBAL CONSPIRACY!!!
GregTheGreat657
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« on: November 19, 2021, 07:03:00 PM »

1980: Reagan + 9
1984: Reagan + 29
1988: Bush + 9
1992: Bush + 4
1996: Clinton + 7
2000: Bush + 7
2004: Bush + 15
2008: McCain + 9
2012: Romney + 8
2016: Trump + 33
2020: Trump + 30

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leecannon
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« Reply #1 on: November 19, 2021, 07:06:40 PM »

1980: Reagan + 9
1984: Reagan + 29
1988: Bush + 9
1992: Bush + 4
1996: Clinton + 7
2000: Bush + 7
2004: Bush + 15
2008: McCain + 9
2012: Romney + 8
2016: Trump + 33
2020: Trump + 30



Itís giving like Rural Montana
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SANTA IS A GLOBAL CONSPIRACY!!!
GregTheGreat657
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« Reply #2 on: November 19, 2021, 07:16:08 PM »

1980: Reagan + 9
1984: Reagan + 29
1988: Bush + 9
1992: Bush + 4
1996: Clinton + 7
2000: Bush + 7
2004: Bush + 15
2008: McCain + 9
2012: Romney + 8
2016: Trump + 33
2020: Trump + 30



Itís giving like Rural Montana
That's actually a semirural county in Upstate NY.

1980: Reagan + 21
1984: Reagan + 23
1988: Bush + 16
1992: Bush + 9
1996: Dole + 4
2000: Bush + 9
2004: Bush + 8
2008: Obama + 9
2012: Obama + 6
2016: Clinton + 3
2020: Biden + 8
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Lone Star Politics
EEllis02
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« Reply #3 on: November 20, 2021, 02:25:40 PM »

1980: Reagan + 9
1984: Reagan + 29
1988: Bush + 9
1992: Bush + 4
1996: Clinton + 7
2000: Bush + 7
2004: Bush + 15
2008: McCain + 9
2012: Romney + 8
2016: Trump + 33
2020: Trump + 30



Itís giving like Rural Montana
That's actually a semirural county in Upstate NY.

1980: Reagan + 21
1984: Reagan + 23
1988: Bush + 16
1992: Bush + 9
1996: Dole + 4
2000: Bush + 9
2004: Bush + 8
2008: Obama + 9
2012: Obama + 6
2016: Clinton + 3
2020: Biden + 8

Definitely a suburban county, guessing something in Virginia or Georgia? Colorado?
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SANTA IS A GLOBAL CONSPIRACY!!!
GregTheGreat657
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« Reply #4 on: November 20, 2021, 02:27:57 PM »

1980: Reagan + 9
1984: Reagan + 29
1988: Bush + 9
1992: Bush + 4
1996: Clinton + 7
2000: Bush + 7
2004: Bush + 15
2008: McCain + 9
2012: Romney + 8
2016: Trump + 33
2020: Trump + 30



Itís giving like Rural Montana
That's actually a semirural county in Upstate NY.

1980: Reagan + 21
1984: Reagan + 23
1988: Bush + 16
1992: Bush + 9
1996: Dole + 4
2000: Bush + 9
2004: Bush + 8
2008: Obama + 9
2012: Obama + 6
2016: Clinton + 3
2020: Biden + 8

Definitely a suburban county, guessing something in Virginia or Georgia? Colorado?
That was actually Dauphin, PA

Do you have any counties for people to guess on?
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Lone Star Politics
EEllis02
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« Reply #5 on: November 21, 2021, 12:04:34 PM »

1980: Reagan + 9
1984: Reagan + 29
1988: Bush + 9
1992: Bush + 4
1996: Clinton + 7
2000: Bush + 7
2004: Bush + 15
2008: McCain + 9
2012: Romney + 8
2016: Trump + 33
2020: Trump + 30



Itís giving like Rural Montana
That's actually a semirural county in Upstate NY.

1980: Reagan + 21
1984: Reagan + 23
1988: Bush + 16
1992: Bush + 9
1996: Dole + 4
2000: Bush + 9
2004: Bush + 8
2008: Obama + 9
2012: Obama + 6
2016: Clinton + 3
2020: Biden + 8

Definitely a suburban county, guessing something in Virginia or Georgia? Colorado?
That was actually Dauphin, PA

Do you have any counties for people to guess on?

1980: Carter + 9
1984: Mondale + 5
1988: Dukakis + 19
1992: Clinton + 17
1996: Clinton + 4
2000: Bush + 18
2004: Bush + 27
2008: McCain + 47
2012: Romney + 54
2016: Trump + 62
2020: Trump + 64
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Big Joey
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« Reply #6 on: November 21, 2021, 12:58:10 PM »

1980: Carter + 9
1984: Mondale + 5
1988: Dukakis + 19
1992: Clinton + 17
1996: Clinton + 4
2000: Bush + 18
2004: Bush + 27
2008: McCain + 47
2012: Romney + 54
2016: Trump + 62
2020: Trump + 64

Central Arkansas

85% Non-Hispanic White Alone
10% Non-Hispanic Black Alone
5% Other

How close was I?



1960: R+9.8
1964: D+27.5
1968: R+4.7
1972: R+28.8
1976: R+3.4
1980: R+22.7
1984: R+22.0
1988: R+14.4
1992: D+5.9
1996: D+20.2
2000: D+17.2
2004: R+0.7
2008: D+5.9
2012: D+6.7
2016: D+6.2
2020: D+1.7
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Lone Star Politics
EEllis02
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« Reply #7 on: November 21, 2021, 01:51:52 PM »

1980: Carter + 9
1984: Mondale + 5
1988: Dukakis + 19
1992: Clinton + 17
1996: Clinton + 4
2000: Bush + 18
2004: Bush + 27
2008: McCain + 47
2012: Romney + 54
2016: Trump + 62
2020: Trump + 64

Central Arkansas

85% Non-Hispanic White Alone
10% Non-Hispanic Black Alone
5% Other

How close was I?


Kinda sorta.

Orange County, Texas. In the Beaumont/Port Arthur area, county seat is Orange, Texas.

Very close with demographics though. 87% white, 8% black, 3% hispanic, rest is other.
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Forumlurker
Forumlurker161
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« Reply #8 on: November 21, 2021, 06:32:24 PM »

1980: Carter + 9
1984: Mondale + 5
1988: Dukakis + 19
1992: Clinton + 17
1996: Clinton + 4
2000: Bush + 18
2004: Bush + 27
2008: McCain + 47
2012: Romney + 54
2016: Trump + 62
2020: Trump + 64

Central Arkansas

85% Non-Hispanic White Alone
10% Non-Hispanic Black Alone
5% Other

How close was I?



1960: R+9.8
1964: D+27.5
1968: R+4.7
1972: R+28.8
1976: R+3.4
1980: R+22.7
1984: R+22.0
1988: R+14.4
1992: D+5.9
1996: D+20.2
2000: D+17.2
2004: R+0.7
2008: D+5.9
2012: D+6.7
2016: D+6.2
2020: D+1.7
Suburban NY?
(Without looking Iím guessing Rockland county)


60% Non Hispanic White
20% Hispanic
15% Black
5% Other


1980: R+22
1984: R+42
1988: R+21
1992: R+1
1996: D+3
2000: R+13
2004: R+17
2008: R+3
2012: R+11
2016: R+39
2020: R+36
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Big Joey
Abdullah
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« Reply #9 on: November 21, 2021, 06:44:57 PM »

Suburban NY?
(Without looking I’m guessing Rockland county)


60% Non Hispanic White
20% Hispanic
15% Black
5% Other

Right on! Rockland County it is! And the racial breakdown:

60.9% Non-Hispanic White Alone
19.6% Hispanic of any race
10.0% Non-Hispanic Black Alone
6.0% Non-Hispanic Asian Alone
3.4% Other

Great job with the demographics too!

How'd you guess?

-SKIP-
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Forumlurker161
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« Reply #10 on: November 21, 2021, 06:57:23 PM »

Suburban NY?
(Without looking Iím guessing Rockland county)


60% Non Hispanic White
20% Hispanic
15% Black
5% Other

Right on! Rockland County it is! And the racial breakdown:

60.9% Non-Hispanic White Alone
19.6% Hispanic of any race
10.0% Non-Hispanic Black Alone
6.0% Non-Hispanic Asian Alone
3.4% Other

Great job with the demographics too!

How'd you guess?

-SKIP-
The heavy R swing in 2020 limits much of the map.
The fact it was Republican except for 1964 when it was heavily Dem suggests itís in the North. Al Gore dominating and then it slowly swinging R reminded me of Long Island, but Nassau and Suffolk donít fit the 2020 results, then I thought of Orange and then Rockland because that had a heavy swing.
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SANTA IS A GLOBAL CONSPIRACY!!!
GregTheGreat657
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« Reply #11 on: November 22, 2021, 08:02:04 PM »

1980: Carter + 9
1984: Mondale + 5
1988: Dukakis + 19
1992: Clinton + 17
1996: Clinton + 4
2000: Bush + 18
2004: Bush + 27
2008: McCain + 47
2012: Romney + 54
2016: Trump + 62
2020: Trump + 64

Central Arkansas

85% Non-Hispanic White Alone
10% Non-Hispanic Black Alone
5% Other

How close was I?



1960: R+9.8
1964: D+27.5
1968: R+4.7
1972: R+28.8
1976: R+3.4
1980: R+22.7
1984: R+22.0
1988: R+14.4
1992: D+5.9
1996: D+20.2
2000: D+17.2
2004: R+0.7
2008: D+5.9
2012: D+6.7
2016: D+6.2
2020: D+1.7
Suburban NY?
(Without looking Iím guessing Rockland county)


60% Non Hispanic White
20% Hispanic
15% Black
5% Other


1980: R+22
1984: R+42
1988: R+21
1992: R+1
1996: D+3
2000: R+13
2004: R+17
2008: R+3
2012: R+11
2016: R+39
2020: R+36
It seems like a rural county in the Upper Midwest with these demographics:

95% White
2% Black
1% Hispanic
1% Asian
1% Native American/Other

1980: Reagan + 28
1984: Reagan + 36
1988: Bush + 22
1992: Bush + 5
1996: Dole + 11
2000: Bush + 18
2004: Bush + 12
2008: Obama + 3
2012: Romney + 6
2016: Trump + 3
2020: Biden + 5
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Forumlurker
Forumlurker161
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« Reply #12 on: November 22, 2021, 09:44:14 PM »

1980: Carter + 9
1984: Mondale + 5
1988: Dukakis + 19
1992: Clinton + 17
1996: Clinton + 4
2000: Bush + 18
2004: Bush + 27
2008: McCain + 47
2012: Romney + 54
2016: Trump + 62
2020: Trump + 64

Central Arkansas

85% Non-Hispanic White Alone
10% Non-Hispanic Black Alone
5% Other

How close was I?



1960: R+9.8
1964: D+27.5
1968: R+4.7
1972: R+28.8
1976: R+3.4
1980: R+22.7
1984: R+22.0
1988: R+14.4
1992: D+5.9
1996: D+20.2
2000: D+17.2
2004: R+0.7
2008: D+5.9
2012: D+6.7
2016: D+6.2
2020: D+1.7
Suburban NY?
(Without looking Iím guessing Rockland county)


60% Non Hispanic White
20% Hispanic
15% Black
5% Other


1980: R+22
1984: R+42
1988: R+21
1992: R+1
1996: D+3
2000: R+13
2004: R+17
2008: R+3
2012: R+11
2016: R+39
2020: R+36
It seems like a rural county in the Upper Midwest with these demographics:

95% White
2% Black
1% Hispanic
1% Asian
1% Native American/Other

1980: Reagan + 28
1984: Reagan + 36
1988: Bush + 22
1992: Bush + 5
1996: Dole + 11
2000: Bush + 18
2004: Bush + 12
2008: Obama + 3
2012: Romney + 6
2016: Trump + 3
2020: Biden + 5
Yep! It was Lapeer MI.
(Skip)
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SANTA IS A GLOBAL CONSPIRACY!!!
GregTheGreat657
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« Reply #13 on: November 24, 2021, 11:01:55 PM »

1980: Reagan + 28
1984: Reagan + 36
1988: Bush + 22
1992: Bush + 5
1996: Dole + 11
2000: Bush + 18
2004: Bush + 12
2008: Obama + 3
2012: Romney + 6
2016: Trump + 3
2020: Biden + 5
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LAB-LIB
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« Reply #14 on: November 24, 2021, 11:11:23 PM »
« Edited: November 25, 2021, 08:49:34 AM by LAB-LIB »

1980: Reagan + 28
1984: Reagan + 36
1988: Bush + 22
1992: Bush + 5
1996: Dole + 11
2000: Bush + 18
2004: Bush + 12
2008: Obama + 3
2012: Romney + 6
2016: Trump + 3
2020: Biden + 5

I'm guessing a county in the Upper-Midwest with a population that's about 90% white, that was previously rural but is either in the exurbs of a major city or has a growing small city of its own.

And for the next county:

1960: Kennedy +34.3
1964: Johnson +45.4
1968: Humphrey +23.8
1972: Nixon +8.4
1976: Carter +20.7
1980: Reagan +0.1
1984: Reagan +0.4
1988: Dukakis +29.1
1992: Clinton +27.7
1996: Clinton +24.1
2000: Bush +6.2
2004: Bush +18.1
2008: McCain +8.0
2012: Romney +37.2
2016: Trump +44.5
2020: Trump +45.9

Would've been so much cooler had Carter in '80 and Mondale had won it, but any guesses?
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SANTA IS A GLOBAL CONSPIRACY!!!
GregTheGreat657
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« Reply #15 on: November 25, 2021, 09:44:47 AM »

1980: Reagan + 28
1984: Reagan + 36
1988: Bush + 22
1992: Bush + 5
1996: Dole + 11
2000: Bush + 18
2004: Bush + 12
2008: Obama + 3
2012: Romney + 6
2016: Trump + 3
2020: Biden + 5

I'm guessing a county in the Upper-Midwest with a population that's about 90% white, that was previously rural but is either in the exurbs of a major city or has a growing small city of its own.

And for the next county:

1960: Kennedy +34.3
1964: Johnson +45.4
1968: Humphrey +23.8
1972: Nixon +8.4
1976: Carter +20.7
1980: Reagan +0.1
1984: Reagan +0.4
1988: Dukakis +29.1
1992: Clinton +27.7
1996: Clinton +24.1
2000: Bush +6.2
2004: Bush +18.1
2008: McCain +8.0
2012: Romney +37.2
2016: Trump +44.5
2020: Trump +45.9

Would've been so much cooler had Carter in '80 and Mondale had won it, but any guesses?
It sounds like somewhere in Coal Country that is over 95% white and less than 20% have bachelor's degree or higher. My county was Leelanau, MI.

1980: Reagan + 8
1984: Reagan + 22
1988: Bush + 14
1992: Clinton + 4
1996: Clinton + 10
2000: Gore + 8
2004: Kerry + 2
2008: Obama + 6
2012: Romney + 1
2016: Trump + 13
2020: Trump + 14
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Big Joey
Abdullah
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« Reply #16 on: November 25, 2021, 09:55:28 AM »

It sounds like somewhere in Coal Country that is over 95% white and less than 20% have bachelor's degree or higher. My county was Leelanau, MI.

1980: Reagan + 8
1984: Reagan + 22
1988: Bush + 14
1992: Clinton + 4
1996: Clinton + 10
2000: Gore + 8
2004: Kerry + 2
2008: Obama + 6
2012: Romney + 1
2016: Trump + 13
2020: Trump + 14

Without looking, is it Volusia County, FL?

60% Non-Hispanic White Alone
17% Hispanic of any race
17% Non-Hispanic Black Alone
3% Non-Hispanic Asian Alone
3% Other

Last four elections suggest that to me

-SKIP-
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SANTA IS A GLOBAL CONSPIRACY!!!
GregTheGreat657
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« Reply #17 on: November 25, 2021, 09:57:02 AM »

It sounds like somewhere in Coal Country that is over 95% white and less than 20% have bachelor's degree or higher. My county was Leelanau, MI.

1980: Reagan + 8
1984: Reagan + 22
1988: Bush + 14
1992: Clinton + 4
1996: Clinton + 10
2000: Gore + 8
2004: Kerry + 2
2008: Obama + 6
2012: Romney + 1
2016: Trump + 13
2020: Trump + 14

Without looking, is it Volusia County, FL?

Last four elections suggest that to me

-SKIP-
Yeah, it is.
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Big Joey
Abdullah
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« Reply #18 on: November 25, 2021, 10:05:08 AM »

1960: R+19.7
1964: D+24.5
1972: R+34.5
1976: D+1.3
1980: R+26.0
1984: R+47.2
1988: R+22.0
1992: R+20.5 (Ross Perot was second place)
1996: R+39.8
2000: R+43.8
2004: R+51.6
2008: R+35.3
2012: R+39.0
2016: R+31.0
2020: R+24.6
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LAB-LIB
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« Reply #19 on: November 25, 2021, 10:22:58 AM »
« Edited: November 25, 2021, 10:53:26 AM by LAB-LIB »

1980: Reagan + 28
1984: Reagan + 36
1988: Bush + 22
1992: Bush + 5
1996: Dole + 11
2000: Bush + 18
2004: Bush + 12
2008: Obama + 3
2012: Romney + 6
2016: Trump + 3
2020: Biden + 5

I'm guessing a county in the Upper-Midwest with a population that's about 90% white, that was previously rural but is either in the exurbs of a major city or has a growing small city of its own.

And for the next county:

1960: Kennedy +34.3
1964: Johnson +45.4
1968: Humphrey +23.8
1972: Nixon +8.4
1976: Carter +20.7
1980: Reagan +0.1
1984: Reagan +0.4
1988: Dukakis +29.1
1992: Clinton +27.7
1996: Clinton +24.1
2000: Bush +6.2
2004: Bush +18.1
2008: McCain +8.0
2012: Romney +37.2
2016: Trump +44.5
2020: Trump +45.9

Would've been so much cooler had Carter in '80 and Mondale had won it, but any guesses?
It sounds like somewhere in Coal Country that is over 95% white and less than 20% have bachelor's degree or higher. My county was Leelanau, MI.

1980: Reagan + 8
1984: Reagan + 22
1988: Bush + 14
1992: Clinton + 4
1996: Clinton + 10
2000: Gore + 8
2004: Kerry + 2
2008: Obama + 6
2012: Romney + 1
2016: Trump + 13
2020: Trump + 14


It is a county with a history of coal mines, but it's not what is usually described as "coal country" (not in WV or KY). It's also predominantly white but not 95%.

EDIT: I will answer yes or no questions btw
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SANTA IS A GLOBAL CONSPIRACY!!!
GregTheGreat657
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« Reply #20 on: November 25, 2021, 11:07:23 AM »

1960: R+19.7
1964: D+24.5
1972: R+34.5
1976: D+1.3
1980: R+26.0
1984: R+47.2
1988: R+22.0
1992: R+20.5 (Ross Perot was second place)
1996: R+39.8
2000: R+43.8
2004: R+51.6
2008: R+35.3
2012: R+39.0
2016: R+31.0
2020: R+24.6

It seems like a DC exurb in Virginia that is about 70% white
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SANTA IS A GLOBAL CONSPIRACY!!!
GregTheGreat657
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« Reply #21 on: November 25, 2021, 11:10:39 AM »

1980: Reagan + 15
1984: Reagan + 31
1988: Bush + 13
1992: Clinton + 5
1996: Clinton + 11
2000: Gore + 1
2004: Kerry + 2
2008: Obama + 19
2012: Obama + 9
2016: Trump + 4
2020: Trump + 3
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Big Joey
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« Reply #22 on: November 25, 2021, 11:44:33 AM »

1960: R+19.7
1964: D+24.5
1972: R+34.5
1976: D+1.3
1980: R+26.0
1984: R+47.2
1988: R+22.0
1992: R+20.5 (Ross Perot was second place)
1996: R+39.8
2000: R+43.8
2004: R+51.6
2008: R+35.3
2012: R+39.0
2016: R+31.0
2020: R+24.6

It seems like a DC exurb in Virginia that is about 70% white

You may be surprised. This is Finney County, Kansas, a county in the state's Southwest, in the great plains region. It is centered around the town of Garden City. Its population is 40K, 30K of which live in the town. It's very isolated, so much so that the closest city that's larger is Wichita, which is 200 miles to the east.

Demographics

51.7% Hispanic of any race
37.7% Non-Hispanic White Alone
3.9% Non-Hispanic Asian Alone
3.5% Non-Hispanic Black Alone
3.1% Other

-SKIP-
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« Reply #23 on: Today at 02:57:17 PM »

1980: Reagan + 9
1984: Reagan + 29
1988: Bush + 9
1992: Bush + 4
1996: Clinton + 7
2000: Bush + 7
2004: Bush + 15
2008: McCain + 9
2012: Romney + 8
2016: Trump + 33
2020: Trump + 30



Itís giving like Rural Montana

No offense meant but how do you figure a county in rural MT swings leftward in 2012?
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CentristRepublican
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« Reply #24 on: Today at 02:59:56 PM »

1980: Carter + 9
1984: Mondale + 5
1988: Dukakis + 19
1992: Clinton + 17
1996: Clinton + 4
2000: Bush + 18
2004: Bush + 27
2008: McCain + 47
2012: Romney + 54
2016: Trump + 62
2020: Trump + 64

Central Arkansas

85% Non-Hispanic White Alone
10% Non-Hispanic Black Alone
5% Other

Don't want to be nitpicky but I don't think it'd be in AR since most counties in rural AR trended harder to the right in 2020.
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