Guess the previous county's location and demographics based on it's voting history
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  Guess the previous county's location and demographics based on it's voting history
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Author Topic: Guess the previous county's location and demographics based on it's voting history  (Read 1210 times)
Schiff for Senate
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« Reply #25 on: November 26, 2021, 03:06:14 PM »

1980: Reagan + 28
1984: Reagan + 36
1988: Bush + 22
1992: Bush + 5
1996: Dole + 11
2000: Bush + 18
2004: Bush + 12
2008: Obama + 3
2012: Romney + 6
2016: Trump + 3
2020: Biden + 5

I'm guessing a county in the Upper-Midwest with a population that's about 90% white, that was previously rural but is either in the exurbs of a major city or has a growing small city of its own.

And for the next county:

1960: Kennedy +34.3
1964: Johnson +45.4
1968: Humphrey +23.8
1972: Nixon +8.4
1976: Carter +20.7
1980: Reagan +0.1
1984: Reagan +0.4
1988: Dukakis +29.1
1992: Clinton +27.7
1996: Clinton +24.1
2000: Bush +6.2
2004: Bush +18.1
2008: McCain +8.0
2012: Romney +37.2
2016: Trump +44.5
2020: Trump +45.9

Would've been so much cooler had Carter in '80 and Mondale had won it, but any guesses?
It sounds like somewhere in Coal Country that is over 95% white and less than 20% have bachelor's degree or higher. My county was Leelanau, MI.

Would agree, expect the 2008 swing doesn't add up...most counties in coal county actually swung pretty hard rightward in 2008, not leftward.
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Sol
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #26 on: November 26, 2021, 03:25:52 PM »

Giving a Southern Illinois/Indiana vibe.
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Schiff for Senate
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« Reply #27 on: November 26, 2021, 09:27:11 PM »

1980: Reagan + 15
1984: Reagan + 31
1988: Bush + 13
1992: Clinton + 5
1996: Clinton + 11
2000: Gore + 1
2004: Kerry + 2
2008: Obama + 19
2012: Obama + 9
2016: Trump + 4
2020: Trump + 3

Midwestern but semi-suburban (if it were rural I'd expect a larger rightward shift).
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GregTheGreat657
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« Reply #28 on: December 15, 2021, 02:44:52 PM »

1980: Reagan + 15
1984: Reagan + 31
1988: Bush + 13
1992: Clinton + 5
1996: Clinton + 11
2000: Gore + 1
2004: Kerry + 2
2008: Obama + 19
2012: Obama + 9
2016: Trump + 4
2020: Trump + 3

Midwestern but semi-suburban (if it were rural I'd expect a larger rightward shift).
That was Isabella, MI

1980: Reagan + 7
1984: Reagan + 31
1988: Bush + 11
1992: Bush  + 7
1996: Clinton + 5
2000: Bush + 9
2004: Bush + 14
2008: McCain + 0.1
2012: Romney + 2
2016: Trump + 7
2020: Trump + < 0.1
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Schiff for Senate
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« Reply #29 on: December 16, 2021, 07:45:46 PM »
« Edited: December 16, 2021, 07:49:27 PM by Senator-elect CentristRepublican »

1980: Reagan + 15
1984: Reagan + 31
1988: Bush + 13
1992: Clinton + 5
1996: Clinton + 11
2000: Gore + 1
2004: Kerry + 2
2008: Obama + 19
2012: Obama + 9
2016: Trump + 4
2020: Trump + 3

Midwestern but semi-suburban (if it were rural I'd expect a larger rightward shift).
That was Isabella, MI

1980: Reagan + 7
1984: Reagan + 31
1988: Bush + 11
1992: Bush  + 7
1996: Clinton + 5
2000: Bush + 9
2004: Bush + 14
2008: McCain + 0.1
2012: Romney + 2
2016: Trump + 7
2020: Trump + < 0.1

I'm going to say either a rural area in New England, or a semi-suburban part of NY. Pretty white either way.

Fictional, but it'd be interesting to see the input:

2020: Trump+6
2016: Trump+5
2012: Romney+8
2008: McCain+13
2004: Bush+17
2000: Bush+20
1996: Dole+9
1992: Bush+14
1988: Bush+30
1984: Reagan+40
1980: Reagan+33
1976: Ford+17
1972: Nixon+55
1968: Nixon+32 (over Humphrey; he was about 60 points ahead of Wallace)
1964: Johnson+3
1960: Nixon+12
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GregTheGreat657
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #30 on: December 16, 2021, 07:55:54 PM »
« Edited: December 16, 2021, 08:49:44 PM by Lincoln General Court Member GregTheGreat657 »

1980: Reagan + 15
1984: Reagan + 31
1988: Bush + 13
1992: Clinton + 5
1996: Clinton + 11
2000: Gore + 1
2004: Kerry + 2
2008: Obama + 19
2012: Obama + 9
2016: Trump + 4
2020: Trump + 3

Midwestern but semi-suburban (if it were rural I'd expect a larger rightward shift).
That was Isabella, MI

1980: Reagan + 7
1984: Reagan + 31
1988: Bush + 11
1992: Bush  + 7
1996: Clinton + 5
2000: Bush + 9
2004: Bush + 14
2008: McCain + 0.1
2012: Romney + 2
2016: Trump + 7
2020: Trump + < 0.1

I'm going to say either a rural area in New England, or a semi-suburban part of NY. Pretty white either way.

Fictional, but it'd be interesting to see the input:

2020: Trump+6
2016: Trump+5
2012: Romney+8
2008: McCain+13
2004: Bush+17
2000: Bush+20
1996: Dole+9
1992: Bush+14
1988: Bush+30
1984: Reagan+40
1980: Reagan+33
1976: Ford+17
1972: Nixon+55
1968: Nixon+32 (over Humphrey; he was about 60 points ahead of Wallace)
1964: Johnson+3
1960: Nixon+12

You were right about my county, which was Ontario, NY. I'd say your county would be in Utah, with a sizable Mormon population, but one that was nowhere near majority status in that county. Your county would be whiter than the national average

This one is also fictional:
1980: Carter + 4
1984: Mondale + 3
1988: Bush + 0.4
1992: Clinton + 6
1996: Clinton + 8
2000: Bush + 4
2004: Bush + 7
2008: Obama + 2
2012: Romney + 1
2016: Clinton + 1
2020: Biden + 7
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CookieDamage
cookiedamage
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« Reply #31 on: December 16, 2021, 10:58:53 PM »


You were right about my county, which was Ontario, NY. I'd say your county would be in Utah, with a sizable Mormon population, but one that was nowhere near majority status in that county. Your county would be whiter than the national average

This one is also fictional:
1980: Carter + 4
1984: Mondale + 3
1988: Bush + 0.4
1992: Clinton + 6
1996: Clinton + 8
2000: Bush + 4
2004: Bush + 7
2008: Obama + 2
2012: Romney + 1
2016: Clinton + 1
2020: Biden + 7


I'm gonna say it's a Upper Peninsula/North Michigan County with a sizable city or semi suburb.

Mine is real

2020: Biden +19
2016: Clinton +15
2012: Obama +18
2008: Obama +18
2004: Kerry +7
2000: Gore +16
1996: Clinton +16
1992: Clinton +5
1988: Bush +18
1984: Reagan +22
1980: Reagan +13
1976: Carter +2
1972: Nixon +26
1968: Nixon +5
1964: Johnson +30
1960: Nixon +3
1956: Eisenhower +23
1952: Eisenhower +9
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CookieDamage
cookiedamage
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« Reply #32 on: December 19, 2021, 12:29:38 PM »

You were right about my county, which was Ontario, NY. I'd say your county would be in Utah, with a sizable Mormon population, but one that was nowhere near majority status in that county. Your county would be whiter than the national average

This one is also fictional:
1980: Carter + 4
1984: Mondale + 3
1988: Bush + 0.4
1992: Clinton + 6
1996: Clinton + 8
2000: Bush + 4
2004: Bush + 7
2008: Obama + 2
2012: Romney + 1
2016: Clinton + 1
2020: Biden + 7


I'm gonna say it's a Upper Peninsula/North Michigan County with a sizable city or semi suburb.

Mine is real

2020: Biden +19
2016: Clinton +15
2012: Obama +18
2008: Obama +18
2004: Kerry +7
2000: Gore +16
1996: Clinton +16
1992: Clinton +5
1988: Bush +18
1984: Reagan +22
1980: Reagan +13
1976: Carter +2
1972: Nixon +26
1968: Nixon +5
1964: Johnson +30
1960: Nixon +3
1956: Eisenhower +23
1952: Eisenhower +9
Sounds like an NYC suburb, though it probably isn't

Mine is not real:
1960: Kennedy + 5
1964: Johnson + 26
1968: Nixon + 1 (2nd place was Humphrey)
1972: Nixon + 8
1976: Ford + 3
1980: Reagan + 10
1984: Reagan + 23
1988: Bush + 6
1992: Clinton + 1
1996: Dole + 1
2000: Bush + 8
2004: Bush + 18
2008: McCain + 8
2012: Romney + 10
2016: Trump + 24
2020: Trump + 21


It actually was very close! It was Burlington County NJ. Technically Philly suburbs but NYC is pretty much right there. Good job.

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GregTheGreat657
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #33 on: July 21, 2022, 06:11:22 PM »

You were right about my county, which was Ontario, NY. I'd say your county would be in Utah, with a sizable Mormon population, but one that was nowhere near majority status in that county. Your county would be whiter than the national average

This one is also fictional:
1980: Carter + 4
1984: Mondale + 3
1988: Bush + 0.4
1992: Clinton + 6
1996: Clinton + 8
2000: Bush + 4
2004: Bush + 7
2008: Obama + 2
2012: Romney + 1
2016: Clinton + 1
2020: Biden + 7


I'm gonna say it's a Upper Peninsula/North Michigan County with a sizable city or semi suburb.

Mine is real

2020: Biden +19
2016: Clinton +15
2012: Obama +18
2008: Obama +18
2004: Kerry +7
2000: Gore +16
1996: Clinton +16
1992: Clinton +5
1988: Bush +18
1984: Reagan +22
1980: Reagan +13
1976: Carter +2
1972: Nixon +26
1968: Nixon +5
1964: Johnson +30
1960: Nixon +3
1956: Eisenhower +23
1952: Eisenhower +9

Southern suburb that is currently plurality black or has a small black majority

1980: Carter + 4
1984: Reagan + 13
1988: Dukakis + 4
1992: Clinton  + 13
1996: Clinton + 30
2000: Gore + 24
2004: Kerry + 12
2008: Obama + 17
2012: Obama + 18
2016: Trump + 1
2020: Biden + 8


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