Which state's rurals offer the Republicans the most room for growth?

[omar04]

My guess is probably Minnesota but I'm not too knowledgeable. North Carolina seems plausible too.

[kwabbit]

Among swing states, Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin could all see their rural areas become more Republican. Among all states, easily Vermont.

[ProgressiveModerate]

A good chunk of the depopulating black belt too, but that’s more Dem loss rather than true R gains.

Anyways, some rural parts of MI/WI/PA still seem to be a bit behind re-alignment. Iowa rurals seem way too D still despite Trumps record performance. A lot of Maine also is very low education WWC and is still re-aligning.

I respectfully disagree strongly with the person who said Vermont, outside a few small pockets of the state. Culturally, VT is a very liberal state, has a lot of higher education and tourism communities which aren’t the kinds of places where the gop have been gaining or seem set to gain. Essex County though, which is sort of the most removed from the rest of the state has a good chance to get redder

Some of upstate NY though still has a lot of room for Rs, especially since the NY/PA political divide is quite extreme.

[Unelectable Bystander]

Rural black areas in the south, from depopulation but also from votes flipping in my opinion. If racial tensions ever take a back seat, there’s literally no other reason for them to be voting blue. I could see it following the same trajectory as the middle south, rural Midwest, and rural Texas. All of these were thought to be insulated from geographic polarization

[ottermax]

Rural black areas in the south, from depopulation but also from votes flipping in my opinion. If racial tensions ever take a back seat, there’s literally no other reason for them to be voting blue. I could see it following the same trajectory as the middle south, rural Midwest, and rural Texas. All of these were thought to be insulated from geographic polarization

New Mexico also... however the population is so urbanized that it might be hard to notice this trend from a higher level.

[omar04]

A good chunk of the depopulating black belt too, but that’s more Dem loss rather than true R gains.

Anyways, some rural parts of MI/WI/PA still seem to be a bit behind re-alignment. Iowa rurals seem way too D still despite Trumps record performance. A lot of Maine also is very low education WWC and is still re-aligning.

I respectfully disagree strongly with the person who said Vermont, outside a few small pockets of the state. Culturally, VT is a very liberal state, has a lot of higher education and tourism communities which aren’t the kinds of places where the gop have been gaining or seem set to gain. Essex County though, which is sort of the most removed from the rest of the state has a good chance to get redder

Some of upstate NY though still has a lot of room for Rs, especially since the NY/PA political divide is quite extreme.

From what I can tell PA rurals appear to be on the whole more tapped out than MI/WI.

[ProgressiveModerate]

In most of central PA, ye, but I could still see Dems collapse a bit more in the Scranton/Luzerne area and the Southwest corner below Pittsburg

[omar04]

In most of central PA, ye, but I could still see Dems collapse a bit more in the Scranton/Luzerne area and the Southwest corner below Pittsburg

Wow, I just looked up Luzerne county and last year the Republicans took all 5 seats up for election on the County Council taking them to a 10-1 majority. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luzerne_County_Council_elections#2021

[If my soul was made of stone]

In most of central PA, ye, but I could still see Dems collapse a bit more in the Scranton/Luzerne area and the Southwest corner below Pittsburg

Wow, I just looked up Luzerne county and last year the Republicans took all 5 seats up for election on the County Council taking them to a 10-1 majority. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luzerne_County_Council_elections#2021

Downballot movement's been pretty sudden there; note, for instance, that it was Sestak '10-Toomey '16, swinging nine points to the right. This is of course much less than the swing it saw presidentially over this period, but Turgid Tea Partier Toomey tended to underperform outside of the major metros and more educated areas. Wolf won it in '18, but Casey lost it to their own Lou Barletta; somehow Shapiro managed to squeeze by two years later, but it went R in both of the other statewide races.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

In most of central PA, ye, but I could still see Dems collapse a bit more in the Scranton/Luzerne area and the Southwest corner below Pittsburg

Wow, I just looked up Luzerne county and last year the Republicans took all 5 seats up for election on the County Council taking them to a 10-1 majority. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luzerne_County_Council_elections#2021

That's only because of that weird (and stupid) voting system. The Republicans got 55.24% overall, which is actually a drop from Trump's 56.6%.

[omar04]

In most of central PA, ye, but I could still see Dems collapse a bit more in the Scranton/Luzerne area and the Southwest corner below Pittsburg

Wow, I just looked up Luzerne county and last year the Republicans took all 5 seats up for election on the County Council taking them to a 10-1 majority. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luzerne_County_Council_elections#2021

That's only because of that weird (and stupid) voting system. The Republicans got 55.24% overall, which is actually a drop from Trump's 56.6%.

Yes, but in 2017 they got 48.93% for the same 5 seats. They also increased their vote share with the other 6 seats from 2015 to 2019.

I'm not sure why they chose such an dumb system-Delaware county appears to have it too but it's all Democrats https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Delaware_County,_Pennsylvania#Delaware_County_Council

[Del Tachi]

No love for New England?

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

There are parts of central Florida that are surprisingly Democratic for their demographics.

[It’s so Joever]

Rural black areas in the south, from depopulation but also from votes flipping in my opinion. If racial tensions ever take a back seat, there’s literally no other reason for them to be voting blue. I could see it following the same trajectory as the middle south, rural Midwest, and rural Texas. All of these were thought to be insulated from geographic polarization

This. I know I was burned with this same prediction a bit in 2020, but I do expect a strong trend among rural black counties in the South to the right this midterm cycle and possibly 2024.

As for white rurals, the Answer is inland Maine.

[omar04]

Rural black areas in the south, from depopulation but also from votes flipping in my opinion. If racial tensions ever take a back seat, there’s literally no other reason for them to be voting blue. I could see it following the same trajectory as the middle south, rural Midwest, and rural Texas. All of these were thought to be insulated from geographic polarization

This. I know I was burned with this same prediction a bit in 2020, but I do expect a strong trend among rural black counties in the South to the right this midterm cycle and possibly 2024.

As for white rurals, the Answer is inland Maine.

Redistricting controversies and charges of splitting up black belt voters might be a headwind for the GOP.

[sting in the rafters]

He did, he did in all of NEPA among people who normally vote. It's just that Trump spent his entire presidency running for re-election and thus got overwhelming turnout from people who both flipped their registration from D---->R and went from nothing---->R once engaged.

It's hard to understate how Trump got the voter outreach in exurban/rural Lackawanna (and the rest of PA, hell rural areas in general) that the GOP's craved for decades. And now with the way things are looking in the country, those former low-propensity voters are Rs for life. We often talk ab how political identity is formed at coming of age, however it's also true for older people who were previously disconnected.

Read it and weep y'allz. Look at VA-GOV and NJ-GOV last November - same story this fall.

[If my soul was made of stone]

In most of central PA, ye, but I could still see Dems collapse a bit more in the Scranton/Luzerne area and the Southwest corner below Pittsburg

Wow, I just looked up Luzerne county and last year the Republicans took all 5 seats up for election on the County Council taking them to a 10-1 majority. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luzerne_County_Council_elections#2021

That's only because of that weird (and stupid) voting system. The Republicans got 55.24% overall, which is actually a drop from Trump's 56.6%.

As my HRT doctor is fond of saying, "the numbers are only meaningful in the context of the numbers". Look at past elections for the county council, even in the Trump years or other good GOP years, and this is clearly seismic. Federal politics determine more downballot in this era than most, sure, but it still doesn't snap so clearly, especially in strange parochial parts of the world like this one.

[Central Lake]

Not saying upstate New York is guaranteed to swing right because I know very little about upstate NY. But I always found the difference between Pennsylvania and upstate NY interesting.

For example in the 2020 presidential elections, Potter county, PA was 79% republican, Tioga county, PA was 74% republican, Bradford county, PA was 71% republican. Allegany county, NY was 68% republican, Steuben county, NY was 63% republican.

[jamestroll]

Virginia is an underrated state on this list, but of course not in the top.