Rate GA in 2024 with a non-Trump GOP Nominee
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November 26, 2021, 06:24:27 PM

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  2024 U.S. Presidential Election (Moderators: Likely Voter, TJ in Oregon, YE)
  Rate GA in 2024 with a non-Trump GOP Nominee
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Poll
Question: Georgia in 2024?
#1
Safe R
 
#2
Likely R
 
#3
Lean R
 
#4
Tilt R
 
#5
Toss Up
 
#6
Tilt D
 
#7
Lean D
 
#8
Likely D
 
#9
Safe D
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 71

Author Topic: Rate GA in 2024 with a non-Trump GOP Nominee  (Read 588 times)
DPKdebator
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« Reply #25 on: November 21, 2021, 08:05:10 AM »

The GOP's challenge in Georgia isn't about Trump, it's about the rapid population growth in the Atlanta metro that has slowly moved the state to the left. The GOP was asleep at the wheel in 2020 with Georgia and probably could've held it if they played their cards better, but by 2024 it won't be doable. If black turnout falls enough in 2022 the Republicans may hold on to the governor seat and sink Warnock, but it would be their last hurrah.
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Mr. MANDELA BARNES
olawakandi
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« Reply #26 on: November 21, 2021, 08:46:10 AM »

It's a tossup like AZ DS will win VA Tim Kaine is in ballot, GA has changed since 1996, but it won't vote D before WI like many Atlas memes believe so

Unless Abrams is GOV Its a Tossup, if she is Gov it's Tilt D anf WARNOCK without Abrams is headed for a Runoff
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Southern Governor LouisvilleThunder
LouisvilleThunder
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« Reply #27 on: November 21, 2021, 12:08:02 PM »

GA probably votes close to whatever the national popular vote will be.
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Mr. MANDELA BARNES
olawakandi
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« Reply #28 on: November 21, 2021, 12:19:33 PM »

GA probably votes close to whatever the national popular vote will be.

Did you know Obama, Gore, Clinton and Kerry didn't need GA to win

GA or AZ  aren't VA it's a 278 map
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G
gracile
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« Reply #29 on: November 21, 2021, 01:02:34 PM »

Lean D, still. As others have stated much of the Democratic gains here have been motivated by hard factors - specifically generational displacement by younger minorities and transplants to the Atlanta metro - as opposed to more persuadable voters switching over (I think displacement/demographic change is a bit of an overrated factor nationwide, but this is one state where it really has uniformly benefitted the Democrats and hurt the GOP). Furthermore, the 2021 runoffs already gave a test case in how two federal candidates with somewhat different branding performed, and the more staid candidate only just barely outperformed the candidate branded as a more generic Trumpist Republican. The areas where there was significant ticket-splitting (the Northern suburbs of Fulton/Cobb/DeKalb) are a small section of the state that is not even wholly favorable to the GOP - and would not be able to withstand further erosion in places like Gwinnett and Henry.

GA probably votes close to whatever the national popular vote will be.

This is probably true in most scenarios, but I think GA would only just barely budge right (and vote left of the NPV by a few points) in a scenario where the GOP has a firm NPV win and has clearly flipped AZ/MI/PA/WI/maybe NV.
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Chips
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« Reply #30 on: November 21, 2021, 05:09:52 PM »

Like with Trump, pure tossup.
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Vern
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« Reply #31 on: November 21, 2021, 07:42:45 PM »

Tilt to lean R
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #32 on: November 25, 2021, 11:08:45 AM »

Pure tossup, as it would be anyway.
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Mr. MANDELA BARNES
olawakandi
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« Reply #33 on: November 25, 2021, 11:20:56 AM »

It's Tilt D but it won't vote to the left of WI, like users think MI, WI, PA gets us to 265 and VA, AZ and GA gets us to 304, it's part of the 304 blue wall not the 278 if we didn't win 1 wave INSURANCE seat for the rest of time MI, WI, PA, VA, CO, NV, NH will give us 278 then AZ and GA

Warnock won by the sane margin as Biden won WI bye he didn't win more and it was against Kelly Loeffler 85 K votes
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Senator Spark
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« Reply #34 on: November 25, 2021, 01:03:04 PM »

Without Trump GA is lean R. The suburbs will easily come back. Most suburbanites were turned off by Trump's rhetoric and perceived incompetence.

If Trump runs again, however, I'd say the state is a toss-up.
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CentristRepublican
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« Reply #35 on: Today at 02:41:35 PM »

Trump lost by 0.24%. Yes, Perdue and Loeffler lost by more but that's because of their association with Trump and the very high stakes. I can easily see a non-Trump Republican nominee doing better than him in the suburbs, and this suburban backlash being enough to outweigh demographic change and growth for the state to flip, though it'd flip narrowly. Tilt Republican is what I am going to go with.
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Southern Delegate Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #36 on: Today at 02:44:56 PM »

Lean D. Winnable, but a hard climb.
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