Which flip is more feasible?
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  2024 U.S. Presidential Election (Moderators: Likely Voter, GeorgiaModerate, KoopaDaQuick 🇵🇸)
  Which flip is more feasible?
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Poll
Question: Which is more likely to happen?
#1
Trump/Republican flips NE-2
 
#2
Biden/Harris flips ME-2
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 47

Author Topic: Which flip is more feasible?  (Read 552 times)
Chips
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Junior Chimp
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« on: November 24, 2021, 12:27:57 AM »

Definitely the former for me. While ME-2 moved slightly left and NE-2 slightly right from 2020 based on redistricting, I simply don't see a populist Republican losing ME-2 in very many circumstances while I could see NE-2 flipping if the national environment gets bad enough for Biden (or Harris).
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BG-NY
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« Reply #1 on: November 24, 2021, 01:06:37 AM »

The new ME-02 is slightly more democratic, but the bottom really could come out in ME, too.
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The Invincible Brent Boggs
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« Reply #2 on: November 24, 2021, 02:06:40 AM »

Definitely the former for me. While ME-2 moved slightly left and NE-2 slightly right from 2020 based on redistricting, I simply don't see a populist Republican losing ME-2 in very many circumstances while I could see NE-2 flipping if the national environment gets bad enough for Biden (or Harris).

I tend to agree: ME-2 voted for Trump by a higher margin than NE-2 for Biden in 2020 (a somewhat Democrat-friendly year). And, Rs seem to have more of a path to gaining back voters in NE-2 than Ds in ME-2. That said neither seems very likely, especially if Trump is on the ballot.
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MT Treasurer
IndyRep
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« Reply #3 on: November 24, 2021, 01:20:41 PM »
« Edited: November 24, 2021, 01:30:16 PM by MT Treasurer »

No Republican is going to lose ME-02, regardless of whether they are "populist" or not lol. While Democrats are certainly favored in NE-02, it could conceivably flip in this kind of environment.

BTW: It’s beyond hilarious that people keep ignoring the successes of other, less 'populist' Republican candidates in districts/states that have been trending strongly Republican and just chalk it all up to "populism" (as if IA totally didn’t elect Joni Ernst by a wide margin in 2014, OH Republicans didn’t completely crush it in 2014, and noted populist Bruce Poliquin didn’t win in 2014). These R trends very much predate Trump.
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South Dakota Democrat
jrk26
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« Reply #4 on: November 24, 2021, 11:35:55 PM »

No Republican is going to lose ME-02, regardless of whether they are "populist" or not lol. While Democrats are certainly favored in NE-02, it could conceivably flip in this kind of environment.

BTW: It’s beyond hilarious that people keep ignoring the successes of other, less 'populist' Republican candidates in districts/states that have been trending strongly Republican and just chalk it all up to "populism" (as if IA totally didn’t elect Joni Ernst by a wide margin in 2014, OH Republicans didn’t completely crush it in 2014, and noted populist Bruce Poliquin didn’t win in 2014). These R trends very much predate Trump.

Good point, I've noticed this as well.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #5 on: November 26, 2021, 10:50:02 AM »

NE-2 for sure. That said, neither is particulary likely to happen.
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Xing
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« Reply #6 on: November 26, 2021, 12:39:55 PM »

NE-02, in the same way that MN is more likely to flip than IA.
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