What if the GOP stopped talking about abortion and started talking about reducing legal immigration?

[BG-NY]

How do coalitions and the map change?

To clarify, the GOP would not be openly pro-abortion. They would just remove it from the platform, and elected officials would stop talking about it and Roe. The same types of judges would likely be nominated I guess.

In terms of legal immigration, it would be framed in terms of labor supply/demand, not cultural or racial reasons.

[RFayette]

Removing it from the platform gives the impression the GOP won't pursue pro-life policy at all.  I would have a difficult time voting for any party that didn't actively oppose the Hyde amendment and at least communicate a desire to appoint anti-Roe judges (I wouldn't vote for the Democrats either, but I'd be more likely to back a 3rd party in this scenario).  

EDIT:  As for how it changes coalitions, what Roons said.  Evangelicals and conservative Catholics would support the party in smaller numbers, especially among those with higher education levels.  I don't think the Midwest and Northeast would shift Dem as much as he suggests, though.

[Roll Roons]

Democrats would make significant gains with white Southerners and Mormons. They solidify their hold on GA and turn TX and NC into Lean D states, while MS, SC and LA get close. WV, KY and TN all trend left, but stay GOP-leaning. UT would also become a Lean D state, and ID would get much closer. The West would become the Dem base region.

The GOP would gain big in the Midwest and Northeast. OH and IA are solid R, with WI, MI, PA, ME and NH becoming Lean R and IL, NJ, DE, CT and RI becoming tossups. VT and even NY and MA become much closer.

[Frodo]

Democrats would make significant gains with white Southerners and Mormons. They solidify their hold on GA and turn TX and NC into Lean D states, while MS, SC and LA get close. WV, KY and TN all trend left, but stay GOP-leaning. UT would also become a Lean D state, and ID would get much closer. The West would become the Dem base region.

The GOP would gain big in the Midwest and Northeast. OH and IA are solid R, with WI, MI, PA, ME and NH becoming Lean R and IL, NJ, DE, CT and RI becoming tossups. VT and even NY and MA become much closer.

I can live with that.

[_.]

Every election

Democrats would make significant gains with white Southerners and Mormons. They solidify their hold on GA and turn TX and NC into Lean D states, while MS, SC and LA get close. WV, KY and TN all trend left, but stay GOP-leaning. UT would also become a Lean D state, and ID would get much closer. The West would become the Dem base region.

The GOP would gain big in the Midwest and Northeast. OH and IA are solid R, with WI, MI, PA, ME and NH becoming Lean R and IL, NJ, DE, CT and RI becoming tossups. VT and even NY and MA become much closer.

Way too many immigrants live in NJ for that to happen...
Also I'd say that WV would trend right and not left

Overall good analysis though

[GregTheGreat657]

]

Every election

I think FL would stay competitive

[Xing]

How is reducing legal immigration a winning issue? I thought this was about “law and order”, and not xenophobia…

[darklordoftech]

The GOP coaliton would look more like Trump 2016 and less like Bush 2000/2004 or Trump 2020.

[S019]

Reducing legal immigration is not really a good strategy given how many immigrants live in America, and descendants of immigrants, etc. This idea that they'd flip IL and NJ by running on, as Xing called it, xenophobia is delusional wish casting not actually based in reality.

[chalmetteowl]

How is reducing legal immigration a winning issue? I thought this was about “law and order”, and not xenophobia…

let's just say it. a lot of R's are xenophobes and there's nothing wrong with that

[CEO Mindset]

Shutting up about abortion alone would help the GOP so much it's ridiculous.

[Skill and Chance]

The GOP coaliton would look more like Trump 2016 and less like Bush 2000/2004 or Trump 2020.

Which is a dead end for Republicans by the end of the decade.  They were smart not to go all the way down this road.