Chris Christie 2012

[Samof94]

What happens if he runs in 2012???

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Romney beats him by going hard line on immigration, just like he did with Newt.

[NewYorkExpress]

He'd do quite a bit better than he did in 2016, and probably gives Santorum a much bigger margin in Iowa by draining much of Romney's support there, but his best state early on would probably be Florida (much like Giuliani's strategy in 2008 was).

He'd probably have to win one of New Hampshire/South Carolina, and I think that assuming Romney still struggles at the debates ahead of the South Carolina Primary, Christie would be in a very good position to beat Gingrich there and and in Florida and force Newt (and probably Santorum) from the race. I don't think he be able to win anything else until Arizona and Michigan, and he'd have to run a perfect campaign and capitalize on Romney gaffes to win Michigan, and he could pick up Ohio and Virginia on Super Tuesday (and Georgia if Santorum and Gingrich have already dropped out), but ultimately his campaign ends after losing to Romney in Illinois.

He'd probably be in a better position to be on the ticket as Romney's running mate if he actually ran than he actually was, due to the more controversial details of his past coming out during the race, though it's more likely Romney would offer him Attorney General if he actually beat Obama.