An Evangelical Resurgence among White Americans during the Era of Trump

[Biden his time]

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The Pew Research Center recently published an analysis of a survey they conducted in November 2020, showing some interesting data.

It is a well-known fact that the majority of Evangelical Protestant Christians, particularly White Evangelical Protestant Christians, are a reliably Republican voting bloc. In fact, in 2020, White Evangelical Protestant Christians in particular swung towards the incumbent President Trump by double-digits, as his vote share among the group increased from 77% to 84%.

This does not extend to non-White Evangelical Protestant Christians, of whom only 30% cast their ballots for Trump last year (and this percentage drops to 12% among Black Evangelical Protestant Christians).

There has been much speculation and discussion, however, as to how the Trump presidency has affected the Evangelical Protestant Christian religious movement. Would it call Evangelicals disillusioned by the church's embracing of Trump to leave? Would the opposite happen? Or something in between?

Well, some data's in now, so let's have a look.

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Evangelical Protestant Christianity made gains during Trump's presidency, particularly among Whites. In fact. The data above suggests that the proportion of Evangelical Protestant Christians among American adults rose from 25.4% in 2016 to 27.4% in 2020 (as the percentage of Non-Evangelical Protestant Christians decreased from 19.6% to 16.2%, the percentage of Catholics grew from 19.8% to 20.7%, and the percentage of Unaffiliated grew from 24.6% to 26.9%).

(As 63.3% of American adults were White in 2016 and 60.8% were in 2020, extrapolating from the results of the 2010 and 2020 US Censuses)

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Moreover, while White Americans who expressed warm views towards Donald Trump were much more likely to adopt Evangelical Protestant Christianity than those who rejected Trump.

On the other hand, White Evangelical Protestant Christians who were not keen on Trump weren't considerably more likely to leave the church than Trump's supporters.


What are your thoughts?

[Samof94]

Marriage is between a man and his third wife.

[Kamala's side hoe]

Evangelical identifiers have been steadily growing as a share of Christians for a generation now.  What I find most interesting if these charts are accurate is that Catholicism seems to have stabilized over the past several years and no longer looks like it is going the way of the Mainline.

Yes, indeed.
It's an intriguing yet foreseeable reversal, especially as more devout Hispanic and Southeast Asian Catholics in the South and West replace the largely lapsed White "Cafeteria" Catholics in the Midwest and Northeast due to the recent scandals and generally having been irreligious even for the last few decades (maybe?). It will be interesting to watch over the coming decades how the Roman Catholic Christian church changes in the US.

And yet the Catholic percentage among White Americans remains unchanged. But yeah it'd be cool to see a more racially and environmentally conscious Religious Left emerge on the backs of Latino and Asian Catholics.

[TJ in Oregon]

The only things about this that are probably statistically significant are the slight evangelical gain among whites and the mainline decline among everyone.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The only things about this that are probably statistically significant are the slight evangelical gain among whites and the mainline decline among everyone.

Yeah. I wish these mainstream surveys reported confidence intervals the way more academic studies do.

[H. Ross Peron]

Would be interesting to compare to numbers on frequency of church attendance. How much of this is a genuine adoption of Evangelical beliefs vs Trump supporters adopting an evangelical identity as a tribal marker?

[RFayette]

Would be interesting to compare to numbers on frequency of church attendance. How much of this is a genuine adoption of Evangelical beliefs vs Trump supporters adopting an evangelical identity as a tribal marker?

Ligonier does surveys on this and unsurprisingly, people don't seem to be getting more orthodox over time.  Of course, this includes both churchgoers and non-churchgoers.

[Skill and Chance]

The only things about this that are probably statistically significant are the slight evangelical gain among whites and the mainline decline among everyone.

The decline in Catholicism over 2000-15 or so was quite significant and it seems to have stabilized now.  That could be important. 

[PSOL]

Within Evangelicalism, I would expect there to be some interesting trends on which denominations grew and shrank these past four years, and indeed the past decade. I know that Pentecostalism is growing, but what does the data tell on other denominations?

[vitoNova]

I feel the 'Great Awakening 2.0' was much more of a Bush-era zeitgeist (shrub, not the daddy) than a Trumpian thing. 

[DC Al Fine]

Within Evangelicalism, I would expect there to be some interesting trends on which denominations grew and shrank these past four years, and indeed the past decade. I know that Pentecostalism is growing, but what does the data tell on other denominations?

In broad strokes:

The big winners were Pentecostals and non-denominational Evangelicals (read: hip Baptists). Baptists declined as did conservative Lutherans for the most part. Reformed churches experienced modest growth or broke even more or less, as did the Evangelical Free Church, and conservative Methodist churches.

[PSOL]

Within Evangelicalism, I would expect there to be some interesting trends on which denominations grew and shrank these past four years, and indeed the past decade. I know that Pentecostalism is growing, but what does the data tell on other denominations?

In broad strokes:

The big winners were Pentecostals and non-denominational Evangelicals (read: hip Baptists). Baptists declined as did conservative Lutherans for the most part. Reformed churches experienced modest growth or broke even more or less, as did the Evangelical Free Church, and conservative Methodist churches.

1. What are the theological differences between these denominations
2. What are the main geographic and demographic differences (ethnicity, income, education)
3. What are the differences in religious practice and church services
4. Can these be attributed to conversion or natural reproduction or loss of members
5. What are their political affiliations

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Spiritual Rapture is getting to be more common for Patrons, because the Wrld is becoming so evil God must comeback, the zjews, Pharaohs and Arabs built the Pyramids as a vessel for the Ancient Aliens or God's to make a Rapture

But, every Evangel Church including the 700 Club say that the Arab resurgence will call Jesus to comeback and make Israel the new Hebrew nation after the anti Christ and the Priest are believing now that a comet will come and destroy the old order

[DC Al Fine]

Within Evangelicalism, I would expect there to be some interesting trends on which denominations grew and shrank these past four years, and indeed the past decade. I know that Pentecostalism is growing, but what does the data tell on other denominations?

In broad strokes:

The big winners were Pentecostals and non-denominational Evangelicals (read: hip Baptists). Baptists declined as did conservative Lutherans for the most part. Reformed churches experienced modest growth or broke even more or less, as did the Evangelical Free Church, and conservative Methodist churches.

Prefacing this, Evangelicalism is the messiest major faith tradition in America. Everything I say has nuance, and umpteen exceptions.

1. What are the theological differences between these denominations

Before we get into the nitty gritty, I would divide these churches into two main groups.

The Lutherans, Reformed, and conservative Methodists are what I call Confessional Protestants or conservative Mainlines. The Mainline churches, which were the historic American religious establishment, tend to be older, and have major founders, and confessions outlining their doctrines. Beginning in 1920 or so, these churches began to liberalize and treat their confessions more loosely. Confessional churches are churches from these traditions that either broke away from the liberalizing Mainlines, or churches which rejected liberalism and stuck to their traditional teachings. The non-denominationals, Pentecostals, Baptists etc generally cannot trace their lineage back to the religious establishment and are closer to the secular person's stereotype of Evangelicalism.

It's hard to properly do the doctrinal differences properly, so I'll just list some distinctives. Wikipedia is actually pretty helpful if you want to search further.

Lutherans are the oldest Protestant tradition. They have a strong focus salvation on total reliance on God's grace for salvation. As the oldest tradition, they have held on to more Catholic practices than most Protestant churches.

Reformed churches emphasize God's predestining Christians/non-Christians to their eventual fates. They tend to eschew images of God in their churches, and place a strong emphasis on abstaining from work on Sunday.

Methodist churches reject the Reformed emphasis on predestination, and focus more on free will. They are often teetotalers.

Evangelical Free Church and Non-denominationals are extremely diverse. They usually reject infant baptism (unlike the above churches), stress local governance of churches. Doctrinally I can't really say there's much besides the usual Evangelical teachings.

2. What are the main geographic and demographic differences (ethnicity, income, education)

Lutherans, are mostly Scandinavian or German background, with the conservatives tending more German. They are strongest in the midwest.

Reformed are Scotch-Irish, Dutch, and Korean mostly. They are more prominent in Appalachia, but also in urban areas. Reformed Christians are often stereotyped as upper middle class professional types.

I honestly don't know Methodist demographics.

Evangelical Free Church is historically Scandinavian.

Non-denominational are extremely diverse, but trend more southern.

3. What are the differences in religious practice and church services

Confessional churches tend towards more traditional liturgies, set orders of worship, and older music. Reformed churches also often sing the Psalms in worship. Non-confessional churches are more likely to have praise bands, guitars and less structured worship.

4. Can these be attributed to conversion or natural reproduction or loss of members

Evangelicals actually don't have a huge birth rate (maybe half a kid per woman more than seculars), so growth would have to mostly be conversions mixed with strong retention of children.

5. What are their political affiliations

Probably easier to just show this one:

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

I didn't know that SDAs were Evangelical, but okay. What makes them such a Democratic-leaning demographic?

[DC Al Fine]

I didn't know that SDAs were Evangelical, but okay. What makes them such a Democratic-leaning demographic?

SDA's are majority-minority.

[Continential]

I am surprised to see that 25% of the Jehovah Witnesses's polled vote considering that I thought that they abstained from citizenship/voting.

[H. Ross Peron]

Within Evangelicalism, I would expect there to be some interesting trends on which denominations grew and shrank these past four years, and indeed the past decade. I know that Pentecostalism is growing, but what does the data tell on other denominations?

In broad strokes:

The big winners were Pentecostals and non-denominational Evangelicals (read: hip Baptists). Baptists declined as did conservative Lutherans for the most part. Reformed churches experienced modest growth or broke even more or less, as did the Evangelical Free Church, and conservative Methodist churches.

Prefacing this, Evangelicalism is the messiest major faith tradition in America. Everything I say has nuance, and umpteen exceptions.

1. What are the theological differences between these denominations

Before we get into the nitty gritty, I would divide these churches into two main groups.

The Lutherans, Reformed, and conservative Methodists are what I call Confessional Protestants or conservative Mainlines. The Mainline churches, which were the historic American religious establishment, tend to be older, and have major founders, and confessions outlining their doctrines. Beginning in 1920 or so, these churches began to liberalize and treat their confessions more loosely. Confessional churches are churches from these traditions that either broke away from the liberalizing Mainlines, or churches which rejected liberalism and stuck to their traditional teachings. The non-denominationals, Pentecostals, Baptists etc generally cannot trace their lineage back to the religious establishment and are closer to the secular person's stereotype of Evangelicalism.

It's hard to properly do the doctrinal differences properly, so I'll just list some distinctives. Wikipedia is actually pretty helpful if you want to search further.

Lutherans are the oldest Protestant tradition. They have a strong focus salvation on total reliance on God's grace for salvation. As the oldest tradition, they have held on to more Catholic practices than most Protestant churches.

Reformed churches emphasize God's predestining Christians/non-Christians to their eventual fates. They tend to eschew images of God in their churches, and place a strong emphasis on abstaining from work on Sunday.

Methodist churches reject the Reformed emphasis on predestination, and focus more on free will. They are often teetotalers.

Evangelical Free Church and Non-denominationals are extremely diverse. They usually reject infant baptism (unlike the above churches), stress local governance of churches. Doctrinally I can't really say there's much besides the usual Evangelical teachings.

The only thing I would add here is that the line tends to blur with the Methodists, Baptists, and arguably even "New School" Presbyterians all of whom partook in "stereotypical" Evangelical practices such as revivals despite also having mainline and confessional roots. On the other hand, the Northern Baptists or the American Baptist Churches is considered part of the Seven Sisters of American Mainline Protestantism.

[PSOL]

So what I am getting at here is that middle class whites with strong education left the more strict churches that are old fashioned and conservative while more low churches of more diverse demographics gained. Generally those more mixed income denominations in evangelicalism that voted more democratic or even did not vote stayed while these suburbanites left the church these past few years.

[ilikeverin]

I honestly don't know Methodist demographics.

The UMC is one of the most widespread Protestant denominations. They have a couple of strongholds: the Lower Midwest (OH/IL/IA) has a lot of Methodists, and the South has a lot of Methodists. My dad is the offspring of two Methodists, one with Arkansas roots and the other with Ohio roots. (It was unusual to grow up Methodist in Minnesota, where the UMC is small; the ELCA has soaked up all the mainline Protestant infrastructure.)

In the South, Methodists tend to be the "liberal" counterpart of the Baptists, but that's relative to the Christians of the South, which are not a liberal bunch. I had a friend who grew up in a proudly atheist family in western North Carolina; the local UMC let her play on their girls' basketball team even though she did not profess any faith, but the local Baptists shunned her. As such, the UMC is one of the most conservative of the mainline denominations, just because such a large chunk of their membership is Southern - but in that context they are among the more liberal ones (and to the extent that the South has liberal/progressive congregations/congregants, they are often Methodists)

However, it's also worth noting that the UMC is about to fracture on LGBT cleavage lines (it has maintained a solidly anti-LGBT social plank or two in their general social principles, but has more or less been in a state of civil war for a decade and many congregations and even regional agglomerations have openly revolted against this plank), so we'll see how that changes the landscape once they do split.

[H. Ross Peron]

I honestly don't know Methodist demographics.

The UMC is one of the most widespread Protestant denominations. They have a couple of strongholds: the Lower Midwest (OH/IL/IA) has a lot of Methodists, and the South has a lot of Methodists. My dad is the offspring of two Methodists, one with Arkansas roots and the other with Ohio roots. (It was unusual to grow up Methodist in Minnesota, where the UMC is small; the ELCA has soaked up all the mainline Protestant infrastructure.)

In the South, Methodists tend to be the "liberal" counterpart of the Baptists, but that's relative to the Christians of the South, which are not a liberal bunch. I had a friend who grew up in a proudly atheist family in western North Carolina; the local UMC let her play on their girls' basketball team even though she did not profess any faith, but the local Baptists shunned her. As such, the UMC is one of the most conservative of the mainline denominations, just because such a large chunk of their membership is Southern - but in that context they are among the more liberal ones (and to the extent that the South has liberal/progressive congregations/congregants, they are often Methodists)

However, it's also worth noting that the UMC is about to fracture on LGBT cleavage lines (it has maintained a solidly anti-LGBT social plank or two in their general social principles, but has more or less been in a state of civil war for a decade and many congregations and even regional agglomerations have openly revolted against this plank), so we'll see how that changes the landscape once they do split.

A good way to sum up the "big tent" nature of the UMC is that both George W. Bush and Hillary Clinton are faithful members.

[Kamala's side hoe]

I didn't know that SDAs were Evangelical, but okay. What makes them such a Democratic-leaning demographic?

SDA's are majority-minority.

The Seventh-day Adventist Church is the most racially diverse religious group in the United States according to the Pew Research Center in its 2014 Religious Landscape Study. Of adults who identify as Seventh-day Adventist, it found that:
37% are white
32% are black
15% are Hispanic
8% are Asian
8% are another race or mixed race.

Among other things, Seventh-Day Adventists are notorious for their encouragement of vegetarianism and their longevity.

[LabourJersey]

Have to say I'm most interested in learning more about the Catholics who identify as "Evangelical."
Is that solely because of the political connotations?

[Central Lake]

As for the Catholic evangelicals, I think it is conservative Catholics who share some beliefs with Evangelical Protestants. Rick Santorum might be an example.

Also there are charismatic Catholics. There is a movement called the Catholic charismatic renewal.

[TJ in Oregon]

Have to say I'm most interested in learning more about the Catholics who identify as "Evangelical."
Is that solely because of the political connotations?

As for the Catholic evangelicals, I think it is conservative Catholics who share some beliefs with Evangelical Protestants. Rick Santorum might be an example.

Also there are charismatic Catholics. There is a movement called the Catholic charismatic renewal.

I think it has more to do with the latter. Some Catholics are trying to reclaim the word evangelical because it really just means people who are trying to evangelize -- which Catholics should be trying to do. While most Catholics who ascribe to it are going to be politically conservative, it is not really used as a political term.