Only one thing stops Wisconsin from voting to Missouri's right...
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  Only one thing stops Wisconsin from voting to Missouri's right...
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Author Topic: Only one thing stops Wisconsin from voting to Missouri's right...  (Read 3586 times)
David Hume
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« Reply #25 on: November 22, 2021, 10:37:15 PM »

Missouri is as much of an anomaly here as Wisconsin is, if not more so. Its the most Republican state in the Country with a majority of people living in major Metro areas.

I respectfully disagree.

Just see this map showing "White Small Town and Rural" voters in the 2020 US Presidential election as per AP Votecast surveys:


Image Link

(No data for gray states)

Here are all the states where this demographic voted even farther to the right than Missouri

R+73 - LA
R+69 - AL
R+67 - MS
R+65 - TX
R+65 - GA
R+64 - OK
R+61 - UT
R+60 - AR
R+55 - SC
R+54 - WV
R+54 - TN
R+52 - MO

Possibly ND too, but not enough data is available

And you might be saying, well those are Southern states! Well, that's what people used to differentiate Missouri from Arkansas at one point. And going even farther, people used to say Tennessee being in the Upper South and South Carolina being Deep South differentiated the two. These days Tennessee votes to the right of South Carolina.

Not to mention there are plenty of other non-Southern states that are incredibly close to Missouri, for example NE and KY, both at R+48

I'd go so far as to say that Maine's likely to experience a similar shift. Regional politics IMHO are mattering less and less these days.

And in any case, Wisconsin definitely stands out on the map above, far more than does Missouri, it looks like Colorado even as the situation remains demographically unstable, especially considering the higher education which is more common among Colorado rural whites keeping them from somewhat Democratic isn't as common in Wisconsin.

The real issue for Wisconsin is if its White Small Town and Rural voters vote even like those do in Iowa, Michigan, or Minnesota, the Wisconsin Democratic Party would be in trouble.



So Wisconsin the the next Iowa which is the next Missouri, then which state is the next Wisconsin?

Northern New England and Upstate NY IMHO
You have to leave the Midwest to find a similar place where higher education isn't common and rural whites vote very Democratic (and that similarly swung hard to Trump in 2016).

(I would call Wisconsin "Wississippi" after it become redder than Mississipi Roll Eyes )

Lol, one day you may be able to
could you share the link for the data source?
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Biden his time
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« Reply #26 on: November 22, 2021, 10:42:51 PM »


Yeah man no problem

https://web.archive.org/web/20210101091744/https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/ap-polls-wisconsin.html

For Wisconsin

Change the state name (and use dashes for spaces) to get data from any other state.

The archive will automatically correct itself to the nearest one taken

Maybe if you got access to thr NYT though you could skip the middleman and just use that website
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David Hume
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« Reply #27 on: November 22, 2021, 10:52:17 PM »


Yeah man no problem

https://web.archive.org/web/20210101091744/https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/ap-polls-wisconsin.html

For Wisconsin

Change the state name (and use dashes for spaces) to get data from any other state.

The archive will automatically correct itself to the nearest one taken

Maybe if you got access to thr NYT though you could skip the middleman and just use that website
Thanks! How would you compare the quality of A.P. VoteCast and CNN/FOX exit polls?
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Biden his time
Abdullah
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« Reply #28 on: November 22, 2021, 10:58:28 PM »


Yeah man no problem

https://web.archive.org/web/20210101091744/https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/ap-polls-wisconsin.html

For Wisconsin

Change the state name (and use dashes for spaces) to get data from any other state.

The archive will automatically correct itself to the nearest one taken

Maybe if you got access to thr NYT though you could skip the middleman and just use that website
Thanks! How would you compare the quality of A.P. VoteCast and CNN/FOX exit polls?

Well, I think it's alright
It's weighted against the actual election result so I'll stick with that, seems to be the best source out there and also provides interesting data for some of the issues, demographics etc.

FOX is the same exact one as New York Times, I think I should use that website in the future honestly if they keep these paywalls up high

CNN I don't know the differences but I personally don't like because they're missing a lot of states.
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David Hume
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« Reply #29 on: November 22, 2021, 11:32:12 PM »


Yeah man no problem

https://web.archive.org/web/20210101091744/https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/ap-polls-wisconsin.html

For Wisconsin

Change the state name (and use dashes for spaces) to get data from any other state.

The archive will automatically correct itself to the nearest one taken

Maybe if you got access to thr NYT though you could skip the middleman and just use that website
Thanks! How would you compare the quality of A.P. VoteCast and CNN/FOX exit polls?

Well, I think it's alright
It's weighted against the actual election result so I'll stick with that, seems to be the best source out there and also provides interesting data for some of the issues, demographics etc.

FOX is the same exact one as New York Times, I think I should use that website in the future honestly if they keep these paywalls up high

CNN I don't know the differences but I personally don't like because they're missing a lot of states.
I did all my analysis with FOX, and didn't notice it's source are the same with AP. Actually there are some slight differences. For example, FOX combined smalltown and rural.

Just found the original data file in case someone is interested https://data.world/associatedpress/ap-votecast
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Abdullah
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« Reply #30 on: November 22, 2021, 11:34:15 PM »


Yeah man no problem

https://web.archive.org/web/20210101091744/https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/ap-polls-wisconsin.html

For Wisconsin

Change the state name (and use dashes for spaces) to get data from any other state.

The archive will automatically correct itself to the nearest one taken

Maybe if you got access to thr NYT though you could skip the middleman and just use that website
Thanks! How would you compare the quality of A.P. VoteCast and CNN/FOX exit polls?

Well, I think it's alright
It's weighted against the actual election result so I'll stick with that, seems to be the best source out there and also provides interesting data for some of the issues, demographics etc.

FOX is the same exact one as New York Times, I think I should use that website in the future honestly if they keep these paywalls up high

CNN I don't know the differences but I personally don't like because they're missing a lot of states.
I did all my analysis with FOX, and didn't notice it's source are the same with AP. Actually there are some slight differences. For example, FOX combined smalltown and rural.

Just found the original data file in case someone is interested https://data.world/associatedpress/ap-votecast

That's actually great, especially the sheets, thanks man

Next time I make one of these maps I don't have to go through 50 different web pages 🤣
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Abdullah
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« Reply #31 on: December 26, 2021, 02:09:45 PM »

How large would the swings be if Rural Frost Belt Whites voted like they did in Missouri:


Darker red is a larger swing towards the Republican Party, increments of 5% (Margin)



Here's how those states would've voted in the 2020 US Presidential election assuming all else remained the same except with the above change in the rural White vote:

R+31.71 - MAINE
R+31.57 - NEW HAMPSHIRE
R+26.17 - VERMONT
R+24.10 - IOWA
R+22.20 - INDIANA
R+15.29 - WISCONSIN
R+11.80 - OHIO
R+7.00 - PENNSYLVANIA
R+6.77 - MICHIGAN
R+3.02 - MINNESOTA
D+12.15 - ILLINOIS
D+16.61 - NEW YORK



Mainly shows that there really isn't that much more room to fall for Dems in Ohio and Downstate Illinois, and any collapse in Rural Minnesota won't put the state out of reach, especially considering growth in MSP.

However, they should be worried certainly about Wisconsin and Upstate New England.
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Schiff for Senate
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« Reply #32 on: January 03, 2022, 08:45:44 PM »
« Edited: January 03, 2022, 08:59:05 PM by Senator-elect CentristRepublican »

This thread is honestly redundant since rural WI doesn't vote like, isn't voting like, and won't vote like rural MO anytime soon, for any number of reasons. Not all rural areas are the same, and if the GOP's path to success in WI is for rural WI to swing hard to the right again, they are doomed (except, of course it isn't - as things currently stand, with rurals as blue in WI as they comparatively are, the state is fairly easily winnable for the GOP under the right circumstances, in the right year and with a decent candidate). WI isn't MO and this statement ignores all differences between the two states. Of course the statement is true, but it's irrelevant. If rural WI started voting like rural MO, of course it would be about as red as MO - both would have 8 districts, 6 solidly Republican and 2 solidly Democratic districts, based in urban areas.

EDIT: Interestingly, by 2023, I expect WI to have the same 6-2 composition that MO currently has, and MO could become 5-3 in the near future depending on redistricting and what happens to MO02 - the only obvious difference is that WI's 6 red districts are only modestly Republican, with no district more than 60% Republican, while in MO, excluding MO02, are at least 65% Republican and one (the ultra-red 8th) crosses the 75% Republican threshold. Looking at CPVI, the 6 WI districts with GOP-leaning CPVIs have CPVIs of R+4, R+7, R+10, R+10, R+11, and R+12. Now MO: R+4, R+18 (already much redder than the reddest WI district, and the 2nd bluest red district in MO), R+20, R+21, R+24 and R+30. This illustrates the difference between WI and MO that will endure.

2ND EDIT: Discussing causes, it's because Bible Belt whites (many in Southern MO) are the most ultra-conservative. The whites in rural areas in the Upper Midwest are less religious, socially and economically conservative, and are much more moderate. Do not confuse the two as they are very distinguishable...Obama won many very white counties in WI in 2012; counties equally white in MO were much redder. Now that difference is probably somewhat narrower but still very larger, and it will not evaporate. In a way it's almost offensive to assume all rurals/rural whites will vote the same way and equally Republican. It's like saying Hispanic voters across the nation are equally liberal - they aren't. It depends greatly on location. For example, the white voters of MA, NH and VT are infinitely more liberal than the white voters of MS, LA and AL. A significantly smalelr, but still visible, difference exists between (rural) white voters in MO and WI, and it's not going to simply vanish, now or in a while, unless drastic changes somehow occur.
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Thunder98
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« Reply #33 on: November 10, 2022, 11:30:01 AM »
« Edited: November 10, 2022, 11:34:36 AM by Thunder98 »

Dane County keeps getting more Dem in each Election Cycle. Evers got a whooping 79% and Barnes 77%. Milwaukee voted around 70% in both the Senate and Gov races. I can see WI become like a MN lite where the Dems win statewide by 2-4%. WI will not become like another OH, let a alone MO.
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bagelman
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« Reply #34 on: November 12, 2022, 02:34:54 PM »

How large would the swings be if Rural Frost Belt Whites voted like they did in Missouri:


Darker red is a larger swing towards the Republican Party, increments of 5% (Margin)



Here's how those states would've voted in the 2020 US Presidential election assuming all else remained the same except with the above change in the rural White vote:

R+31.71 - MAINE
R+31.57 - NEW HAMPSHIRE
R+26.17 - VERMONT
R+24.10 - IOWA
R+22.20 - INDIANA
R+15.29 - WISCONSIN
R+11.80 - OHIO
R+7.00 - PENNSYLVANIA
R+6.77 - MICHIGAN
R+3.02 - MINNESOTA
D+12.15 - ILLINOIS
D+16.61 - NEW YORK



Mainly shows that there really isn't that much more room to fall for Dems in Ohio and Downstate Illinois, and any collapse in Rural Minnesota won't put the state out of reach, especially considering growth in MSP.

However, they should be worried certainly about Wisconsin and Upstate New England.

Here's how an election might look like in this scenario:



Thankfully 2022's results make this scenario seem less likely.
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The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ
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« Reply #35 on: November 16, 2022, 04:43:44 PM »

I agree with what others have said about rural Missouri being naturally more accessible to Republicans than rural Wisconsin. There's undeniably a strong southern/evangelical influence in Missouri that doesn't exist in Wisconsin. That said, you don't even have to get to Missouri levels.

Take Michigan for example, which has a similar white demographic as Wisconsin in terms of ancestry and religiosity (albeit the Dutch influence in Michigan does add an additional layer of social conservatism. According to exit polls, Gretchen Whitmer lost white voters by 3pts, and Evers lost among whites by 5 - or in other words, white Michiganders voted 14 points to the right of the state, and white Wisconsinites by 8 points. What makes Michigan more blue is that there are more minorities, and specifically more black people, who of course overwhelmingly vote D.

If white Wisconsinites leaned even as Republican as white Michiganders, Tim Michels probably would have won the gubernatorial election. So rural white Wisconsin doesn't even have to reach Missouri levels of Republica support, even Michigan levels would tilt the state.
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« Reply #36 on: November 16, 2022, 08:25:16 PM »

In relation to my previous comment - it's actually pretty interesting looking at the white vote across states. I remember a few years ago, Illinois whites were more Republican than Iowa whites - but Illinois obviously has a far larger non-white population, which was the main reason why IL would vote to the left of IA. Now though Iowa whites have probably caught up, if not surpassed, their Illinois counterparts in Republican leaning. A continued rightward shift among white wisconsinites is certainly imaginable, if not likely, but we'll have to see how much further that goes (and whether that is cancelled by a growing minority population)
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Sol
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« Reply #37 on: November 16, 2022, 09:54:00 PM »

Wisconsin does have Madison as a genuinely humongous bloc of white liberals, and that's not even a rural area.
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S019
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« Reply #38 on: November 20, 2022, 01:59:45 AM »

How large would the swings be if Rural Frost Belt Whites voted like they did in Missouri:


Darker red is a larger swing towards the Republican Party, increments of 5% (Margin)



Here's how those states would've voted in the 2020 US Presidential election assuming all else remained the same except with the above change in the rural White vote:

R+31.71 - MAINE
R+31.57 - NEW HAMPSHIRE
R+26.17 - VERMONT
R+24.10 - IOWA
R+22.20 - INDIANA
R+15.29 - WISCONSIN
R+11.80 - OHIO
R+7.00 - PENNSYLVANIA
R+6.77 - MICHIGAN
R+3.02 - MINNESOTA
D+12.15 - ILLINOIS
D+16.61 - NEW YORK



Mainly shows that there really isn't that much more room to fall for Dems in Ohio and Downstate Illinois, and any collapse in Rural Minnesota won't put the state out of reach, especially considering growth in MSP.

However, they should be worried certainly about Wisconsin and Upstate New England.

Here's how an election might look like in this scenario:



Thankfully 2022's results make this scenario seem less likely.

The main problem with this map imo is that even Vermont rural whites have pretty left wing political attitudes in a way that is just unique to Vermont (a bit like western Massachusetts honestly) and also college educated whites in New Hampshire (who are 40%(!) of the state) should keep Democrats in a good position there. As for Maine, I suspect Democrats still have a lot of room to fall in northern Maine, and imo it is by far the likeliest place in New England to start voting like a "normal" rural area.
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mianfei
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« Reply #39 on: March 24, 2023, 07:17:37 PM »

I expect most of the rural counties to top out at around 70% R, and the Driftless to stop at about 60%. The rural D counties in the north and around Madison will be competitive. And this will be largely canceled out by Milwaukee suburbs. IMO Wisconsin will remain competitive for a very long time, probably longer than Pennsylvania (which may become Titanium Lean D during the 2020s) and Michigan (which could move dramatically either right or left from here, it's impossible to say).
A critical difference is that the rural counties in the north that were historically Democratic — Douglas and Ashland voted for McGovern in 1972 after all — have strong resort town and weak-but-measurable Native American influences. These prevent them from moving nearly as far to the right as unionised mining and timber counties in the border states, or even the lower Midwest.

Consider that Trump received over 80 percent in Reynolds County, Missouri — a classic historically unionised border state mining county where Mondale won over 60 percent in 1984 — but only 44 percent in the above-mentioned Ashland County that was a similarly historically unionised primary product area. As an extreme illustration, in Door County on Lake Michigan, Biden actually did better in 2020 than Lyndon Johnson did in 1964.
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Devils30
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« Reply #40 on: April 13, 2023, 10:23:47 PM »

Because it isn't that simple...under this logic Vermont would be a deep red state because it is rural and nearly all white while only moderately educated.
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