Only one thing stops Wisconsin from voting to Missouri's right...

[Biden his time]

Only one thing stops Wisconsin from voting to Missouri's right, and it's the abnormal Democratic strength throughout Wisconsin's small towns and rural areas.

Just take a look at this side-by-side comparison of Wisconsin's and Missouri's urban and rural areas voting patterns in the 2020 US Presidential election using numbers from the AP Vote-cast survey (whose data has been adjusted to the final results of the 2020 US Presidential election).

Image Link Wisconsin (Left Picture)
Image Link Missouri (Right Picture)

As you all can see, despite there being little difference between the voting patterns of Missouri and Wisconsin's urban areas and suburbs, there is a massive divergence in the small town and rural area categories, whereas Wisconsin's voted R+15 in 2020, Missouri's voted R+50.

In fact, if Wisconsin's small towns and rural areas also voted R+50, like Missouri's, the state as a whole would shockingly vote to the right of Missouri, and this is because Wisconsin's small towns and rural areas make up a larger proportion of the state's population than Missouri's (49% vs. 43%)

Of course, this pattern holds true all throughout the Upper Midwest, but nowhere is this more the case than it is in Wisconsin.


Here is a hypothetical map of Wisconsin where every county not predominantly urban or suburban has been shifted 35% to the right, to be more in line with Missouri-style voting. While not to be taken seriously, it does reveal interesting patterns.

WISCONSIN: R+16.4

Image Link

Map uses Wikipedia color scheme for presidential elections

[R] Republican Candidate - 57.3% ✔️
[D] Democratic Candidate - 41.0%


So what do you all think are the root causes of this pattern?*
And do you all expect this pattern to break in the future? How hard?

* TBH I know many of these, the second question's what I'm more interested in but I still am curious to hear answers for the first question

[Roll Roons]

A lot of it is because rural areas in Wisconsin were largely settled by Germans and Scandinavians rather than Southerners, so they're much less influenced by Evangelicalism compared to those in Missouri.

[Hope For A New Era]

Wisconsin rurals will not vote like Missouri rurals anytime soon unless we're getting into 1972/1984 territory.

I expect most of the rural counties to top out at around 70% R, and the Driftless to stop at about 60%. The rural D counties in the north and around Madison will be competitive. And this will be largely canceled out by Milwaukee suburbs. IMO Wisconsin will remain competitive for a very long time, probably longer than Pennsylvania (which may become Titanium Lean D during the 2020s) and Michigan (which could move dramatically either right or left from here, it's impossible to say).

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

A lot of it is because rural areas in Wisconsin were largely settled by Germans and Scandinavians rather than Southerners, so they're much less influenced by Evangelicalism compared to those in Missouri.

Wisconsin is Mainline Protestant, while Missouri is Southern Baptist and part of the Bible Belt.

[Skill and Chance]

I'm like 90% confident this will eventually happen within the next 20 years.

[thebeloitmoderate]

Not all of Missouri is simply southern redneck baptists/evangelicals. The German americans in the state is mostly Lutheran with some Protestant/Catholic in the mix. There is also a french american community in St Francois county/Ste Genevieve. Northern MO is mostly midwestern in influence. 

[OSR stands with Israel]

I'm like 90% confident this will eventually happen within the next 20 years.

Keep in mind Missouri 20 years ago looked like this

[Xing]

The difference in urban percentage is significant, though, and considering that this is where Wisconsin is growing the most, I don’t think it’s headed the way of Missouri, at least not yet. This also does show that Democrats have enormous untapped potential in the suburban parts of both states.

[If my soul was made of stone]

The difference in urban percentage is significant, though, and considering that this is where Wisconsin is growing the most, I don’t think it’s headed the way of Missouri, at least not yet. This also does show that Democrats have enormous untapped potential in the suburban parts of both states.

I could never see the Fox Valley counties (Brown, Outagamie, Winnebago) voting like they do in the example map in the OP. The baseline for Dems in Green Bay, Appleton, Oshkosh, and some smaller cities in the region (Menasha, Neenah, etc) where HRC generally still managed around 45% while bottoming out in more rural corners of the world, is fairly stable if not particularly impressive for nominally urban counties. They remain steadily right of where they "should" be in the current alignment and in relative trend stasis, but they're a needed growth area for Dems to offset losses elsewhere. It would be difficult for them to undergo the same transformation seen in inner-ring Milwaukee suburbs like Wauwatosa or West Allis, or to diversify like similar areas in the Sun Belt, for less obvious cultural reasons, but they probably won't fall that far.

[GregTheGreat657]

The reason why rural whites in Wisconsin are more Democrat than rural whites in Missouri is religion. Rural whites in Missouri tend to be more religious, and those religious whites in Missouri tend to be more likely to belong to sects of Christianity that vote more R and are more conservative (evangelicalism).

[David Hume]

Wisconsin rurals will not vote like Missouri rurals anytime soon unless we're getting into 1972/1984 territory.

I expect most of the rural counties to top out at around 70% R, and the Driftless to stop at about 60%. The rural D counties in the north and around Madison will be competitive. And this will be largely canceled out by Milwaukee suburbs. IMO Wisconsin will remain competitive for a very long time, probably longer than Pennsylvania (which may become Titanium Lean D during the 2020s) and Michigan (which could move dramatically either right or left from here, it's impossible to say).

I did some research about exit polls. Rural WI is the least polarized among midwestern states. If they start to vote like MI or MN, the state is gone for Dem. I believe within a few circles, WI>MI>PA will happen.

[Hope For A New Era]

Wisconsin rurals will not vote like Missouri rurals anytime soon unless we're getting into 1972/1984 territory.

I expect most of the rural counties to top out at around 70% R, and the Driftless to stop at about 60%. The rural D counties in the north and around Madison will be competitive. And this will be largely canceled out by Milwaukee suburbs. IMO Wisconsin will remain competitive for a very long time, probably longer than Pennsylvania (which may become Titanium Lean D during the 2020s) and Michigan (which could move dramatically either right or left from here, it's impossible to say).

I did some research about exit polls. Rural WI is the least polarized among midwestern states. If they start to vote like MI or MN, the state is gone for Dem. I believe within a few circles, WI>MI>PA will happen.

Eventually, yes. And WI will very likely be a Lean R state in the near future, possibly by the end of the decade. All I'm saying is it's not likely to vote like Missouri. If it does vote like Missouri, it's more likely to be from Missouri moving left (which it is currently, at an absolutely glacial pace) than Wisconsin moving RGV 2020-level right.

[David Hume]

Wisconsin rurals will not vote like Missouri rurals anytime soon unless we're getting into 1972/1984 territory.

I expect most of the rural counties to top out at around 70% R, and the Driftless to stop at about 60%. The rural D counties in the north and around Madison will be competitive. And this will be largely canceled out by Milwaukee suburbs. IMO Wisconsin will remain competitive for a very long time, probably longer than Pennsylvania (which may become Titanium Lean D during the 2020s) and Michigan (which could move dramatically either right or left from here, it's impossible to say).

I did some research about exit polls. Rural WI is the least polarized among midwestern states. If they start to vote like MI or MN, the state is gone for Dem. I believe within a few circles, WI>MI>PA will happen.

Eventually, yes. And WI will very likely be a Lean R state in the near future, possibly by the end of the decade. All I'm saying is it's not likely to vote like Missouri. If it does vote like Missouri, it's more likely to be from Missouri moving left (which it is currently, at an absolutely glacial pace) than Wisconsin moving RGV 2020-level right.

WWC in WI don't need to vote like Missouri. If they just vote like PA, WI will be a safe R state. It is already a tilt to lean R state right now. Given the trend in WWC, by the end of the decade it will be at least where OH and IA are right now.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Wisconsin rurals will not vote like Missouri rurals anytime soon unless we're getting into 1972/1984 territory.

I expect most of the rural counties to top out at around 70% R, and the Driftless to stop at about 60%. The rural D counties in the north and around Madison will be competitive. And this will be largely canceled out by Milwaukee suburbs. IMO Wisconsin will remain competitive for a very long time, probably longer than Pennsylvania (which may become Titanium Lean D during the 2020s) and Michigan (which could move dramatically either right or left from here, it's impossible to say).

I did some research about exit polls. Rural WI is the least polarized among midwestern states. If they start to vote like MI or MN, the state is gone for Dem. I believe within a few circles, WI>MI>PA will happen.

Eventually, yes. And WI will very likely be a Lean R state in the near future, possibly by the end of the decade. All I'm saying is it's not likely to vote like Missouri. If it does vote like Missouri, it's more likely to be from Missouri moving left (which it is currently, at an absolutely glacial pace) than Wisconsin moving RGV 2020-level right.

I mean in 2000 if someone told you that rural Missouri would vote like rural Oklahoma, they would have completely laughed that possibility off but that is what ended up happening.  

[Hope For A New Era]

Wisconsin rurals will not vote like Missouri rurals anytime soon unless we're getting into 1972/1984 territory.

I expect most of the rural counties to top out at around 70% R, and the Driftless to stop at about 60%. The rural D counties in the north and around Madison will be competitive. And this will be largely canceled out by Milwaukee suburbs. IMO Wisconsin will remain competitive for a very long time, probably longer than Pennsylvania (which may become Titanium Lean D during the 2020s) and Michigan (which could move dramatically either right or left from here, it's impossible to say).

I did some research about exit polls. Rural WI is the least polarized among midwestern states. If they start to vote like MI or MN, the state is gone for Dem. I believe within a few circles, WI>MI>PA will happen.

Eventually, yes. And WI will very likely be a Lean R state in the near future, possibly by the end of the decade. All I'm saying is it's not likely to vote like Missouri. If it does vote like Missouri, it's more likely to be from Missouri moving left (which it is currently, at an absolutely glacial pace) than Wisconsin moving RGV 2020-level right.

I mean in 2000 if someone told you that rural Missouri would vote like rural Oklahoma, they would have completely laughed that possibility off but that is what ended up happening.  

Would they have?

The cultural difference between Missouri and Wisconsin is much bigger than the one between Missouri and Oklahoma.

[Del Tachi]

The difference in urban percentage is significant, though, and considering that this is where Wisconsin is growing the most, I don’t think it’s headed the way of Missouri, at least not yet. This also does show that Democrats have enormous untapped potential in the suburban parts of both states.

Do they?  I didn't expect Biden to have won suburban voters outright in either MO or WI, yet these exit polls suggest he did in 2020.  I suspect Biden's 2020 performance here is closer to a hypothetical ceiling than a floor. 

Neither MO nor WI really has suburbs of the type that Democrats have been doing well in recently (i.e., very diverse, wealthy, connected to Alpha-tier global cities, etc.)

[Biden his time]

Wisconsin rurals will not vote like Missouri rurals anytime soon unless we're getting into 1972/1984 territory.

I expect most of the rural counties to top out at around 70% R, and the Driftless to stop at about 60%. The rural D counties in the north and around Madison will be competitive. And this will be largely canceled out by Milwaukee suburbs. IMO Wisconsin will remain competitive for a very long time, probably longer than Pennsylvania (which may become Titanium Lean D during the 2020s) and Michigan (which could move dramatically either right or left from here, it's impossible to say).

I did some research about exit polls. Rural WI is the least polarized among midwestern states. If they start to vote like MI or MN, the state is gone for Dem. I believe within a few circles, WI>MI>PA will happen.

Eventually, yes. And WI will very likely be a Lean R state in the near future, possibly by the end of the decade. All I'm saying is it's not likely to vote like Missouri. If it does vote like Missouri, it's more likely to be from Missouri moving left (which it is currently, at an absolutely glacial pace) than Wisconsin moving RGV 2020-level right.

I mean in 2000 if someone told you that rural Missouri would vote like rural Oklahoma, they would have completely laughed that possibility off but that is what ended up happening.  

Would they have?

The cultural difference between Missouri and Wisconsin is much bigger than the one between Missouri and Oklahoma.

Remember than Missouri's only a stone's throw away from Iowa, and Iowa's only a stone's thtow away from Wisconsin...

[Neptunium]

So Wisconsin the the next Iowa which is the next Missouri, then which state is the next Wisconsin?

(I would call Wisconsin "Wississippi" after it become redder than Mississipi )

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Missouri is as much of an anomaly here as Wisconsin is, if not more so. Its the most Republican state in the Country with a majority of people living in major Metro areas.

[Biden his time]

Missouri is as much of an anomaly here as Wisconsin is, if not more so. Its the most Republican state in the Country with a majority of people living in major Metro areas.

I respectfully disagree.

Just see this map showing "White Small Town and Rural" voters in the 2020 US Presidential election as per AP Votecast surveys:

Image Link

(No data for gray states)

Here are all the states where this demographic voted even farther to the right than Missouri

R+73 - LA
R+69 - AL
R+67 - MS
R+65 - TX
R+65 - GA
R+64 - OK
R+61 - UT
R+60 - AR
R+55 - SC
R+54 - WV
R+54 - TN
R+52 - MO

Possibly ND too, but not enough data is available

And you might be saying, well those are Southern states! Well, that's what people used to differentiate Missouri from Arkansas at one point. And going even farther, people used to say Tennessee being in the Upper South and South Carolina being Deep South differentiated the two. These days Tennessee votes to the right of South Carolina.

Not to mention there are plenty of other non-Southern states that are incredibly close to Missouri, for example NE and KY, both at R+48

I'd go so far as to say that Maine's likely to experience a similar shift. Regional politics IMHO are mattering less and less these days.

And in any case, Wisconsin definitely stands out on the map above, far more than does Missouri, it looks like Colorado even as the situation remains demographically unstable, especially considering the higher education which is more common among Colorado rural whites keeping them from somewhat Democratic isn't as common in Wisconsin.

The real issue for Wisconsin is if its White Small Town and Rural voters vote even like those do in Iowa, Michigan, or Minnesota, the Wisconsin Democratic Party would be in trouble.

So Wisconsin the the next Iowa which is the next Missouri, then which state is the next Wisconsin?

Northern New England and Upstate NY IMHO
You have to leave the Midwest to find a similar place where higher education isn't common and rural whites vote very Democratic (and that similarly swung hard to Trump in 2016).

(I would call Wisconsin "Wississippi" after it become redder than Mississipi )

Lol, one day you may be able to

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

This is a map of states where a majority of people live in major Metros vs those where a majority of people live outside of major Metros. Missouri is easily the most Republican state in the Country where a majority of people live in major Metros (as its combined segment of the St. Louis and Kansas City Metros total just over half of the states population).

[Biden his time]

-SNIP-

Missouri is easily the most Republican state in the Country where a majority of people live in major Metros (as its combined segment of the St. Louis and Kansas City Metros total just over half of the states population).

Yeah, that's a fact
I wasn't disputing that.
However it's irrelevant to the statement right before it that is the subject of this thread

I was disputing the idea that the true anomaly in terms of rural white partisan lean is Missouri (and in the Midwest nearly all rural folks are white) and not Wisconsin.

Wisconsin is the anomaly.

[Xing]

The difference in urban percentage is significant, though, and considering that this is where Wisconsin is growing the most, I don’t think it’s headed the way of Missouri, at least not yet. This also does show that Democrats have enormous untapped potential in the suburban parts of both states.

Do they?  I didn't expect Biden to have won suburban voters outright in either MO or WI, yet these exit polls suggest he did in 2020.  I suspect Biden's 2020 performance here is closer to a hypothetical ceiling than a floor. 

Neither MO nor WI really has suburbs of the type that Democrats have been doing well in recently (i.e., very diverse, wealthy, connected to Alpha-tier global cities, etc.)

And yet, the trend in counties like Waukesha, Ozaukee, Clay, and Platte is very clear, and don't merely exist with Trump on the ballot. While they're not comparable to Gwinnett, Democrats still have more room for growth in these places.

[Tartarus Sauce]

I'm like 90% confident this will eventually happen within the next 20 years.

Being 90% confident on twenty year trend lines is a fool’s game. Imagine a person right after the 2000 election correctly predicting the current state of political affairs.

[TheReckoning]

I'm like 90% confident this will eventually happen within the next 20 years.

Being 90% confident on twenty year trend lines is a fool’s game. Imagine a person right after the 2000 election correctly predicting the current state of political affairs.

I mean, 43 out of 50 states voted the same way in 2020 (and 5 out of the 7 who voted differently were close in either 2000 or 2020) so it’s not that ridiculous.