Division of America scenario #811

[bagelman]

This is less of election what-if and more just what-if, but whatever.

The dust has settled after a long Second American Civil War. Here are the US successor states:

Atlantic Federation: All 6 New England States, New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Delaware. Most of Maryland (Eastern Shore, Baltimore metro, Frederick, western panhandle), small part of West Virginia (Morgantown, counties of Marion Taylor Preston Berkeley Morgan all controlled by Maryland). Attempting to gain control of the beltway (Montgomery and Prince George MD and DC) and a couple more WV counties including Jefferson to control all the eastern panhandle. The capital city is Albany.

The Atlantic Federation retains a democratic republican form of government, although it is dominated by the Democratic Party. The President is a Democrat and the bicameral legislature is dominated by Democrats. The GOP is reviving itself with a strong performance in the recent elections but it is dominated by Phil Scott and Larry Hogan types and needs to remind people of this. Canada is trying to flex its muscle to become the main power in North America, and it has found a partner in the Atlantic Federation. Various Democratic proposals for the country are often carbon copies of Canadian policies. Climate change is also an issue as there are fears of a future drowning of New York City.

American Union of the Great Lakes: Ohio, Indiana, Michigan, Illinois, Wisconsin in full. Controls 16 Kentucky counties, most being in a cluster that includes Cincinnati's southern suburbs  and Louisville ("North Kentucky"), the other 2 are McCracken (Paducah) and Ballard (administered by Illinois). Controls 9 Missouri counties on the MS river from St. Charles down to Mississippi ("St. Louis"). Controls 3 West Virginia counties in the panhandle, administered by Ohio. Capital is Indianapolis.

The AUGL retains a democratic republican form of government, and is evenly divided between Democrats and Republicans. The area voted R+0.4 in 2016 and D+1.1 in 2020. Democrats currently control the Presidency and the unicameral legislature, but power is in the hands of the most moderate members of the party, including the folksy President herself. The President is a moderate Democrat from Ohio and is fairly popular in Ohio, Michigan, and Chicagoland but very unpopular in St. Louis. They are loosely allied with the AF and Canada but not too closely.

The AUGL faces opposition in St. Louis from conservatives in the area that want to join the CAS, while liberals in St. Louis and immediate suburbs oppose this. The CAS wants more of the Mississippi river valley and does wish to reunite Missouri, but the AUGL also wants as much of the Mississippi river valley as it can get so wishes to keep a hold of the state. The AUGL's claim over Northern Kentucky has only solidified as the RSA continues to slide into dictatorship. People in Wheeling don't like being ruled by Ohio but the AF (or AUGL) will not allow RSA West Virginia to gain more territory.

Republican States of America: All of Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina. All of Louisiana that has not been evacuated due to recent hurricanes. The vast majority of Virginia save some rural counties on the Chesapeake bay. The vast majority of Tennessee and North Carolina. Most of West Virginia, Kentucky, and Florida. The buildings that hosted the old US Federal government in downtown Washington DC including the White House.

The RSA is a one party authoritarian regime that does not successfully maintain a democratic republican form of government. It is still technically in a state of civil war: the ruling Red Clique of the GOP has driven the (slightly) more moderate Gold Clique down to the west coast of Florida, from St. Petersburg south to the Florida Keys, and has cut off Lake Okeechobee from the coast. The Gold Clique was led by Rick Scott, while the Red Clique is lead by a far-right university student from Clemson, originally from eastern Tennessee, who became a staffer for MTG. He has not created any sort of cult of personality around himself, instead he has become a part of an oligarchic structure that is ostensibly a Republic. The Democratic party has been outlawed, as they caused the United States to collapse. The Red Clique is not satisfied with having a capital city be a place that voted Democratic, especially not Atlanta, and Charleston WV is way too far north to be secure. So government institution are spread across the country. This both limits government authority (in theory) and prevents a single nexus of power from being targeted by external or internal enemies (in practice).

The RSA is also fighting an undeclared war with the AF for control of remaining territories in the Beltway region. Both sides must play a careful game of tactical diplomacy with the remnant US Federal government aligned that rule in the unclaimed territories that still exist, especially in Prince George's and Montgomery MD. The overwhelming majority of the local populace favor the AF over the RSA. That was also true for NOVA, which is solidly in RSA hands. A number of political refugees have left NOVA for Jefferson County WV which remains neutral territory at the moment. The RSA has control over the White House and various federal buildings in downtown Washington DC, and has secured much of Charles County MD with the cooperation of the city government of La Plata. Mineral and Hampshire Counties in WV are also still unclaimed but the locals there are probably pro-RSA. RSA forces are spread kinda thin and thus the AF is the favorite to control the MD beltway and some in the RSA fear they could come down into Virginia's eastern shore.

Much of the Albemarle and Pamlico sounds of North Carolina are still under of independent militas that the RSA is trying to co-opt, as are Gulf and Franklin Counties in Florida. They should have no problem, more concerning is the situation in the northern neck and eastern shore of Virginia, but if they gain them they also might get St. Marys MD.  Plaquemines Parish is largely ruined by a major hurricane that hit Louisiana, one that thankfully did not damage New Orleans itself that much.

Confederation of American States: Texas (El Paso currently autonomous), Oklahoma, Arkansas, Kansas, Nebraska, most of Missouri, a slice of western Iowa centered on Council Bluffs (governed by Nebraska), and a small slice of western Tennessee to secure control of the Mississippi river (including all of Lake County, all military governed, and the Kentucky Bend for good measure). Capital Oklahoma City.

Overwhelmingly dominated by the Republican Party, the CAS nevertheless maintains a democratic republican form of government and is disappointed about what is going on in their eastern neighbor, especially for not sharing the rich water resources of the Mississippi willingly. This does not mean they are friendly with the AUGL which illegally occupies eastern Missouri. Agrarian landowners and interests are an important power bloc in the CAS. While Texas is the most powerful state, Oklahoma City isn't so liberal like Austin and gives the appearance of equality.   

Free Association of America: Minnesota, both Dakotas, Wyoming, Montana, Idaho, most of Iowa. Capital Pierre. The FAA is a libertarian confederation of state governments and does little other than act as a night watchman and conduct diplomacy. Corporations have great power here, even more so then the fiscally conservative CAS. In Minnesota, the Twin cities were evacuated during the collapse of the United States, refugees are still trickling in. The Iowa state government is rather barebones and is doing little to reunify the state.

Colorado: Colorado is an independent state and state government is divided between the fiscally moderate socially liberal Democrats and the fiscally conservative socially moderate Republicans. Colorado has opened itself up to marijuana tourism.

Arizona-New Mexico Union: What is on paper an agreement between two states is actually the conquest of New Mexico by Arizona, as ruled by a militant faction of the old US military and border patrol. The military dictatorship gives more leeway to municipal governments than the RSA but ruthlessly secures its borders, believing Mexico helped the USA collapse. To be fair the Mexican government was a little too cheery when it did happen. If you're in an English speaking neighborhood or on a native reservation, things are OK if a little more tense than usual. If you're in a Spanish speaking neighborhood or anywhere near the border, you'll see the boots on the ground and on your face if you cause trouble. Illegal immigrants that cannot be thrown into Mexico, a category which includes troublemakers and activists who were born in the old US, are dumped into El Paso, which is becoming overcrowded.

Union of Deseret: Utah's state government fought to protect its water rights and ended up taking control of Nevada with the cooperation of local Republicans. The one party state is less concerned with political orthodoxy than the RSA, instead it seeks to slowly blend church and state and eventually convert most Nevadans to Mormonism. However, downtown Las Vegas continues to be a libertine paradise, and the mayor increasingly sees directives from Salt Lake City as suggestions, especially with a friendly California nearby. Liberals in SLC or Reno don't have it so lucky.

California: has changed the least since the collapse of the US. Still struggling with drought, still greedily flexing its muscles to protect its water rights, still wealthy and powerful and liberal. California is not scared of the grunts in Phoenix or the zealots in Utah. However it is ultimately what is in the best interests of California, not liberal ideology, that drives Sacramento to action.

Cascadia: Simply a union between Oregon and Washington, a liberal paradise where weed shops can be found everywhere in the western cities and conservative eastern farmers are happy to make money selling the stuff. They are trying to compete with Colorado for weed tourism and secure cooperation with California and Canada. They seek to create a liberal western bloc. Like Colorado and California they act as a unitary state government.

Alaska: A stable state government, Alaska has no reason to fear Russian invasion, as Russia has little to gain from taking Alaska and plenty to lose by acting so aggressive on the world stage and ruling over a population of English speaking people. However Canadian ideas that maybe Alaska should join them have been become legitimately worrying for Alaska, and Alaska has closed the border with Canada.

Hawaii: A stable state government, Hawaii is trying to strengthen ties with the rest of Polynesia.

Smaller factions:

Various beltway micro-states, some in rural areas, others controlling urban zones in the beltway, are old US federal government forces. Some are delusional, others are sane enough to work with either the AF or RSA and eventually join one or the other. Most of the local population in the urban areas support the AF over the RSA.

Various independent militas in eastern North Carolina and the south coast of the Florida panhandle, as mentioned before are generally right wing and likely to join the RSA.

The remaining Gold Clique of the Republican Party of the RSA still controls cities such as Clearwater, St. Petersburg, Sarasota, Fort Myers, Naples, and the Keys. They view the dominant Red Clique as bloodthirsty lunatics and themselves as True Conservatives that Donald Trump would be proud of. The area is a mess. The CAS is thinking of propping them up as a competing Florida state government, but that would be a provocative move. Cut off from the Gold Clique are their allies around Lake Okoeechobee who have given up ideology and joined forces with various poor black and hispanic refugees to fight the RSA as much as they are able. The Cubans eye Florida with some interest, perhaps some insurgents may relight the old fire of socialism.

Southeast Iowa is under the control of a loose association of county commissioners and an charismatic if benign Indian American preacher and Christian convert. This figure seems to legitimately care more about practicing his faith and helping people than gaining power for himself, which is very good. The weak Iowa state government, part of the FAA, hasn't really pressed the issue of reunification.

Finally, El Paso. Still officially part of Texas and the CAS, but the mayor of the city has made the city a haven for refugees for quite a while now. Arizona-New Mexico sends anyone it doesn't like into the city, and Texas is beginning to become angry about it.

Question to anyone: What would you do if you knew this was going to happen and had no way of preventing it? I would probably just stay put.

[gerritcole]

interesting premise, i find it unlikely that the same d/r party splits persist after a second civil war, similarly i expect entire cities/regions/states to be uninhabitable after such a conflict

[bagelman]

Hmmm, I feel like this would work better if I didn't have it be the aftermath of a civil war at all, and instead a world without a unified US (or Canada).

Here's a revised version. Still not my best work and has lots of convergent names, but much improved:

Atlantic Federation: All 6 New England States, New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Delaware. Most of Maryland (Eastern Shore, Baltimore metro, Frederick, western panhandle), small part of West Virginia (Morgantown, counties of Marion Taylor Preston Berkeley Morgan all controlled by Maryland). Territorial dispute with Republica regarding some rural areas across from the Upper Potomac. The capital city is Albany.

The Atlantic Federation retains a democratic republican form of government. Conservatives tend to be Phil Scott and Larry Hogan types. The Atlantics are trying to become the premier power of North America. Climate change is a major issue as there are fears of a future drowning of New York City.

Canada A French speaking nation never ruled by any English speaking polity long-term. Take away the northern hinterland of our Quebec but add the core of Ontario, a trade that works in favor of Quebec City. The result is a stable and prosperous nation that maintains its own flavor of democracy. They are allied with the Atlantics. There isn't much of a south Asian minority but there is a larger African minority including immigrants from the RSA. As long as they are good citizens that speak good French they are welcome.

American Union of the Great Lakes: Ohio, Indiana, Michigan, Illinois, Wisconsin in full. Controls 3 Ontario counties east of the St. Clair and Detroit rivers. Controls 16 Kentucky counties, most being in a cluster that includes Cincinnati's southern suburbs  and Louisville ("South Ohio"), the other 2 are McCracken (Paducah) and Ballard (administered by Illinois). Controls 9 Missouri counties on the MS river from St. Charles down to Mississippi ("St. Louis"). Controls 3 West Virginia counties in the panhandle, administered by Ohio. Capital is Indianapolis.

The AUGL retains a democratic republican form of government, and is similar to what an evenly divided purple state would look like in our US. The more working class oriented party currently enjoys power over the executive and legislative branches (unicameral congress) but they are moderate and the President is known more for her folksy small town personality than bold policies. The President is from Ohio and is fairly popular in Ohio, Michigan, and Chicagoland but very unpopular in St. Louis, a region that tends to strongly support the opposition party. They are loosely allied with the Atlantics but not too closely.

The AUGL faces opposition in St. Louis from more radical conservatives in the area that want to join the CAS, while urban liberals oppose this. The CAS wants more of the Mississippi river valley and does wish control all west of the river, but the AUGL also wants as much of the Mississippi river valley as it can get so wishes to keep a hold of the state. The AUGL's claim over lands south of the Ohio has only solidified as the RSA continues to slide into dictatorship. While many people on the other side of the river tend to support the opposition party, they really don't want to be under the neighboring regime.

Republican States of America: All of Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina. All of Louisiana that has not been evacuated due to recent hurricanes. The vast majority of Virginia save some rural counties on the Chesapeake bay. The vast majority of Tennessee and North Carolina. Most of West Virginia, Kentucky, and Florida. The RSA is often referred to as "Republica". It exists in the aftermath of a civil conflict, one where left wing reformist forces were defeated by populist right wing forces. While the bloodshed was less than it could have been the collapse of the long decaying aristocratic order lead to anarchy that still persists in some regions.

The RSA is a one party authoritarian regime that does not successfully maintain a democratic republican form of government. It is still technically in a state of civil war: the ruling Red Clique of has driven the (slightly) more moderate and paternalistic Gold Clique down to the west coast of Florida, from St. Petersburg south to the Florida Keys, and has cut off Lake Okeechobee from the coast. The Gold Clique was led by a wealthy right wing politician, while the Red Clique is lead by a far-right university student from Clemson, originally from eastern Tennessee. He has not created any sort of cult of personality around himself, instead he has become a part of an oligarchic structure that is ostensibly a Republic, similar in that way to what Republica was in the past but with young blood. Left wing and minority interest political organizations have been outlawed, as they contribute to "division". The Red Clique is not satisfied with having a single capital city that could support a liberal intelligentsia. So government institution are spread across the country. This both limits government authority (in theory) and prevents a single nexus of power from being targeted by external or internal enemies (in practice). 

Much of the Albemarle and Pamlico sounds of North Carolina are still under of independent militas that the RSA is trying to co-opt, as are Gulf and Franklin Counties in Florida. They should have no problem, more concerning is the situation in the northern neck and eastern shore of Virginia which is still fairly lawless and too close to the Atlantics and Potomacs. Plaquemines Parish is largely ruined by a major hurricane that hit Louisiana, one that thankfully did not damage New Orleans itself that much.

Potomac Free State: An attempt by African Americans of the RSA to form their own nation free from RSA oppression. Located in what in our world is the DC beltway. While the Atlantics support them, the revolutionary founders of the country are increasingly up their own butts and the promise of a democratic republican form of government is fading. The country is recognized by many African and third world nations and is being courted by International Communism despite a lack of socialist dogma. The Atlantics and most other North American nations do not recognize them officially yet as this would be extremely provocative towards the RSA.

African Americans have been emigrating from the RSA for a long time after slavery and before that country fell into civil war. They have been welcomed into the

*AF (a bit less than OTL)
*Great Lakes (about the same numbers as OTL and with race relations slightly better),
*CAS (mainly joining existing AA minorities),
*Colorado (a little more than OTL but not much),
*California (more than OTL),
*Cascadia (in recent decades, the country once banned black immigrants),
*Canada (very accepting but requires them to learn French),

and many into Latin American countries which of course vary amongst themselves. Few have migrated into the FAA or Arizona. Overall the current African American minority in the RSA is less than OTL because of this outward migration. The Gold Clique for their part is just as white supremacist as the Red Clique. 

Confederation of American States: Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Kansas, Nebraska, most of Missouri, a slice of western Iowa centered on Council Bluffs, and a small slice of western Tennessee to secure military control of the Mississippi river. Capital Oklahoma City.

Dominated by conservative ranching interests, the CAS nevertheless maintains a democratic republican form of government and is disappointed about what is going on in their eastern neighbor, especially for not sharing the rich water resources of the Mississippi willingly. This does not mean they are friendly with the AUGL which illegally occupies lands east of the Mississippi river. Agrarian landowners and interests are an important power bloc in the CAS. However living standards are pretty good.

El Paso is a special city in that is very liberal and internationalist. It sees itself as a place of refuge. Neighboring Arizona have been forcing people it doesn't like into the city. The CAS is increasingly angry at Arizona regarding this issue and may close the border.

Free Association of America: Minnesota, both Dakotas, Wyoming, Montana, Idaho, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, most of Iowa, what we call Northern Ontario, most of British Columbia's land area. Capital Minneapolis, which is a much smaller city than in our world. The FAA is a libertarian confederation of state and local governments and does little other than act as a night watchman and conduct diplomacy. Corporations have great power here. Mining, agrarian, and logging interests compete against each other. Worker's unions exist and mainly support themselves, and have successfully prevented laws against their existence.

Colorado: A small liberal country that was the first nation in the world to fully legalize marijuana.

Arizona: Includes all of what we call New Mexico. This nation has a history similar to our Texas, white Anglophone settlers moved into a region of Mexico and successfully fought for independence. They allied with native interests as well. They have not successfully maintained a democratic republican form of government and is currently ruled by a authoritarian regime. The military dictatorship gives more leeway to municipal governments than the RSA but ruthlessly secures its borders, continuing to despite Mexico. To be fair the Mexican government has done little to improve relations. If you're in an English speaking neighborhood or on a native reservation, things are OK, if still noticeably more "orderly" then in the democratic states of North America. If you're in a Spanish speaking neighborhood or anywhere near the border, you'll see the boots on the ground and on your face if you cause trouble. Illegal immigrants that cannot be thrown into Mexico, a category which includes troublemakers and activists who were born in the old US, are dumped into El Paso, which is becoming overcrowded. The CAS is starting to become Annoyed at their city being used as a dumping ground by a neighboring country, while they not the sort of people with a penchant for liberal international activism may nonetheless start Doing Something About It.

Union of Deseret: Essentially a Mormon settler state, though it was once a secular libertarian democratic republic similar to the FAA. This right wing one party state is less concerned with political orthodoxy than the RSA, instead it seeks to convert Catholic Hispanics and anyone else it can to Mormonism and enforce religious doctrine as law. However, downtown Las Vegas continues to be a libertine paradise, and the mayor increasingly sees directives from Salt Lake City as suggestions, especially with a friendly California nearby. Liberals in SLC or Reno don't have it so lucky.

California: Wealthy, powerful, and liberal. California is not scared of the grunts in Arizona or the zealots in Deseret. However it is ultimately what is in the best interests of California, not liberal ideology, that drives Sacramento to action. Water is a major concern.

Cascadia: All of Oregon and Washington, much of British Columbia. Seen as a liberal paradise where weed shops can be found everywhere in the western cities and conservative eastern farmers are happy to make money selling the stuff. This is largely accurate. They are trying to compete with Colorado for weed tourism and are friendly towards their neighbors. The Cascadian national government is a carbon copy of the Coloradan one and this has been working out well for them. 

Alaska: Never sold by Russia but instead conquered by the Japanese Empire during their rise. Remains Japanese and officially still ruled by the emperor, but in practical terms is independent from the Japan after the collapse of fascism in the mainland. Japan in this world was a major fascist world power, but thankfully this world has never seem Nazism. None of what we call Alaska was ever ruled by an English speaking polity and the country sees itself as North American only geographically.

Hawaii: The Kingdom of Hawai'i transitioned from British puppet to Japanese puppet and is now independent. The monarchy has to be fiercely independent from foreign influence to avoid being overthrown or replaced by a Republic by their angry populace. While much of the population are non-Polynesian Asians, they still consider themselves Hawaiians rather than Japanese or Chinese. White people including Hispanics are more likely to be tourists than locals.

Smaller factions:

Various independent militas in eastern North Carolina and the south coast of the Florida panhandle, as mentioned before are generally right wing and likely to rejoin the RSA.

The remaining Gold Clique of the RSA still controls cities such as Clearwater, St. Petersburg, Sarasota, Fort Myers, Naples, and the Keys. They view the dominant Red Clique as bloodthirsty lunatics and themselves as True Conservatives that their (slaveowning) ancestors would be proud of. The area is a mess. The CAS is thinking of propping them up to weaken the RSA, but that would be a provocative move. Cut off from the Gold Clique are their allies around Lake Okoeechobee who have given up ideology and joined forces with various poor black and hispanic refugees to fight the RSA as much as they are able. International Communism eyes Florida with some interest, perhaps some insurgents may rekindle the old fire of socialism.

Southeast Iowa is under the control of a loose association of county commissioners and an charismatic if benign Indian American preacher and Christian convert. This figure seems to legitimately care more about practicing his faith and helping people than gaining power for himself, which is very good, but there's still time for power to corrupt. The weak government of the FAA doesn't seem to consider this a threat to their national sovereignty.