Selzer-iowa- Trump +11
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Author Topic: Selzer-iowa- Trump +11  (Read 1841 times)
Matty
boshembechle
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« on: November 13, 2021, 06:51:28 PM »



God help us
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #1 on: November 13, 2021, 06:53:58 PM »
Doesn't mean he will be the nominee
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neostassenite31
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« Reply #2 on: November 13, 2021, 06:58:37 PM »
I suppose this is meant to be a good poll for Dems since if the vaunted VA/NJ "uniform swing" narrative is true IA would be roughly around R+20. Though of course generic Rs could well outperform Trump here     
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #3 on: November 13, 2021, 07:11:36 PM »
How are Republicans so good at appealing to rural voters?
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Bootes Void
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« Reply #4 on: November 13, 2021, 07:18:56 PM »
👏👏👏Iowa is not a swing state 👏👏👏
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S019
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« Reply #5 on: November 13, 2021, 07:27:34 PM »
This poll is great news for Biden, he's underwater in terms of favorability by 30 in a state trending to the right that voted for Trump by 8 last time, this would be perfectly in line with a 2024 electorate similar to 2020, though there is still a lot of time left. At least we can put the stupid "Biden=Carter" memes to rest now.
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MR DARK BRANDON
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« Reply #6 on: November 13, 2021, 08:03:38 PM »
If this is the result in Iowa Biden should win re election
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Shaula🏳️‍⚧️
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« Reply #7 on: November 13, 2021, 08:14:46 PM »
Quote from: S019 on November 13, 2021, 07:27:34 PM
This poll is great news for Biden, he's underwater in terms of favorability by 30 in a state trending to the right that voted for Trump by 8 last time, this would be perfectly in line with a 2024 electorate similar to 2020, though there is still a lot of time left. At least we can put the stupid "Biden=Carter" memes to rest now.
Polls underestimate Trump in the midwest
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #8 on: November 13, 2021, 08:25:44 PM »
Quote from: The Pieman on November 13, 2021, 08:14:46 PM
Quote from: S019 on November 13, 2021, 07:27:34 PM
This poll is great news for Biden, he's underwater in terms of favorability by 30 in a state trending to the right that voted for Trump by 8 last time, this would be perfectly in line with a 2024 electorate similar to 2020, though there is still a lot of time left. At least we can put the stupid "Biden=Carter" memes to rest now.
Polls underestimate Trump in the midwest

Most do, but Selzer has an excellent track record. 
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Hollywood
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« Reply #9 on: November 13, 2021, 08:32:37 PM »
Quote from: Roll Roons on November 13, 2021, 08:25:44 PM
Quote from: The Pieman on November 13, 2021, 08:14:46 PM
Quote from: S019 on November 13, 2021, 07:27:34 PM
This poll is great news for Biden, he's underwater in terms of favorability by 30 in a state trending to the right that voted for Trump by 8 last time, this would be perfectly in line with a 2024 electorate similar to 2020, though there is still a lot of time left. At least we can put the stupid "Biden=Carter" memes to rest now.
Polls underestimate Trump in the midwest

Most do, but Selzer has an excellent track record. 

Just checked.  Selzer underestimated Trump 44-43, 48-1
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #10 on: November 13, 2021, 08:39:33 PM »
Probably more like Trump +15. 2024 will be ugly.
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RFayette
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« Reply #11 on: November 13, 2021, 08:47:45 PM »
Excellent poll.  Tremendous to see!
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #12 on: November 13, 2021, 09:01:03 PM »
It's an R plus 9 state Kim Reynolds is hugely popular it doesn't change the 304 map
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2016
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« Reply #13 on: November 13, 2021, 09:11:28 PM »
Quote from: Roll Roons on November 13, 2021, 08:25:44 PM
Quote from: The Pieman on November 13, 2021, 08:14:46 PM
Quote from: S019 on November 13, 2021, 07:27:34 PM
This poll is great news for Biden, he's underwater in terms of favorability by 30 in a state trending to the right that voted for Trump by 8 last time, this would be perfectly in line with a 2024 electorate similar to 2020, though there is still a lot of time left. At least we can put the stupid "Biden=Carter" memes to rest now.
Polls underestimate Trump in the midwest

Most do, but Selzer has an excellent track record. 
This Poll underscores one thing. How tough the Political Environment will be for Democratic Midwestern Governors. I wouldn't want to be in Tim Walz, Gretchen Whitmers or Tony Evers Shoes right now. All 3 got swept into Office during the 2018 Anti-Trump Midterm Wave and now they have potentially defend themselves in an Anti-Biden Wave in 2022.

If Biden is at 33 % in IA he is very likely severly underwater in MI, WI and MN.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #14 on: November 14, 2021, 05:18:27 AM »
Iowa is the equivalent of Colorado for the Democrats. A continental state formerly a battleground now out of reach for the other party.
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Vaccinated Russian Bear
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« Reply #15 on: November 14, 2021, 05:24:55 AM »
It starts, indeed, look like a slaughter.


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Vaccinated Russian Bear
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« Reply #16 on: November 14, 2021, 05:27:22 AM »
Quote from: SnowLabrador on November 13, 2021, 07:11:36 PM
How are Republicans so good at appealing to rural voters?

They don't despise them and don't call them deplorables?
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Woody
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« Reply #17 on: November 14, 2021, 05:39:59 AM »
At this point, it's starting to look like complete annihilation.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #18 on: November 14, 2021, 10:43:27 AM »

Lol we lost IA by nine pts and we still won the 304 map, it's inflated because Kim Reynolds is popular
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #19 on: November 14, 2021, 10:46:07 AM »
Tbh, with Harris IA could end up voting like MO or even to the right of MO.
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Senator Incitatus
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« Reply #20 on: November 14, 2021, 10:50:32 AM »
Obviously safe but would be surprised if the final margin is this close.
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THG
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« Reply #21 on: November 14, 2021, 01:53:01 PM »
Quote from: Sir Mohamed on November 14, 2021, 10:46:07 AM
Tbh, with Harris IA could end up voting like MO or even to the right of MO.

I disagree. I could easily see Iowa being R+17-18 or so in a Youngkin-Harris matchup, but Missouri will probably be more Republican than it was even in 2016 in that scenario.
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BlueSwan
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« Reply #22 on: November 14, 2021, 02:09:06 PM »
Awful.

How the voters are rewarding lying about the election and undermining democracy is just baffling. It's absolutely insane.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #23 on: November 14, 2021, 02:22:47 PM »
Quote from: THG on November 14, 2021, 01:53:01 PM
Quote from: Sir Mohamed on November 14, 2021, 10:46:07 AM
Tbh, with Harris IA could end up voting like MO or even to the right of MO.

I disagree. I could easily see Iowa being R+17-18 or so in a Youngkin-Harris matchup, but Missouri will probably be more Republican than it was even in 2016 in that scenario.


You guys only won IA by nine pts it won't be anymore than 11
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South Dakota Democrat
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« Reply #24 on: November 14, 2021, 02:25:29 PM »
Quote from: SnowLabrador on November 13, 2021, 08:39:33 PM
Probably more like Trump +15. 2024 will be ugly.

Not only are you a concern troll, but you're one of the most annoying concern trolls.
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