South African elections in the 1980s

[Libertas Vel Mors]

There is a map of divisions in 1989 (not sure when the boundaries changed, but think they were at least the same in ‘87) available online, but unfortunately I am not allowed to post the link until I have posted 20 times - happy to message it to someone so they can post it here (if the site will let me do that …)

I have a cleaned up version, but don’t know how to post images here.

There is clearly a bit of a problem with the boundaries as shown in the Witwatersrand / surrounds, notably with Losberg and Germiston District.

If you message me I can post it.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Link has been shared by icc on another forum (thanks!) and is here: https://ur.booksc.eu/book/36224960/3b9a97

Maps are featured on pages 60 and 61 of the attached pdf.

[Estrella]

I made a thing. (sorry for ninjaing you icc, in case you made something like this)



Here's the basemap I used, clumsily traced from the above article.

[Hash]

Truly the ultimate holy grail of online electoral geography discussions. Thank you to parochialboy, Estrella and icc!

[parochial boy]

I made a thing. (sorry for ninjaing you icc, in case you made something like this)



Here's the basemap I used, clumsily traced from the above article.

Magnificent! And thank you ICC!

You guys have turned this thread into a real gold mine  

(athough, being totally pedantic, the Orange Free State seat of Virginia should be National Party rather than DP, at least the results I have suggest NP - which seems more likely as no way is a rural seat in the Platteland voting DP)

[Estrella]

(athough, being totally pedantic, the Orange Free State seat of Virginia should be National Party rather than DP, at least the results I have suggest NP - which seems more likely as no way is a rural seat in the Platteland voting DP)

I thought it was strange that DP won there, but Virginia sounds very English, so I figured it's that

_{(also what did I do to poor Lesotho)}

[Estrella]

What parochial boy pointed out has been fixed and I decided to have a go at 1987 - I think there's enough info in the article for that, though there may be some errors.

[Estrella]

ta-da!

[icc]

There are a couple of other little errors in the original map which you have copied across:
Roodepoort (western Witwatersrand) should be Conservative not National (in 1987 too)
Uitenhage (Eastern Cape, next to PE) should be Conservative not Democratic

Also Fauresmith (western OFS) did go National in the re-run election, but in the original general election it was actually a tie between the National and Conservative candidates.

[parochial boy]

(athough, being totally pedantic, the Orange Free State seat of Virginia should be National Party rather than DP, at least the results I have suggest NP - which seems more likely as no way is a rural seat in the Platteland voting DP)

I thought it was strange that DP won there, but Virginia sounds very English, so I figured it's that

_{(also what did I do to poor Lesotho)}

The reltionship between place names and languages spoken can be delightfully unpredictable... after all, you have places like Worcester, Caledon and Upington that are entirely devoid of English speakers; but also Rondebosch or Pietermaritzburg; or Umhlanga and Amanzimtoti, where English in the main language

(and Chris Hani's murderer was an Afrikaner with the name of... Clive Derby-Lewis)

[Estrella]

[Estrella]

1974, the last hurrah of the old United Party and that poor sod De Villiers Graaff. How he didn't go mad after twenty-one years as the leader of an increasingly pathetic opposition is beyond me.

[Conservatopia]

I know it isn't exactly what this thread is for but I'd be interested to see all the election results in Helen Suzman's seat of Houghton please.  Was she ever in danger of not making it into parliament?

We were discussing her over the weekend here - she was a tremendously interesting personality.

[parochial boy]

I know it isn't exactly what this thread is for but I'd be interested to see all the election results in Helen Suzman's seat of Houghton please.  Was she ever in danger of not making it into parliament?

We were discussing her over the weekend here - she was a tremendously interesting personality.

She won it unconstested in 1977, by a ~75-25 margin over the NRP in 1981 and about a 65-35 margin over the NP in 1987. So by that stage - as in the stage it wasn't their only seat - it was pretty safe.

As things go for earlier elections... well we have a familiar problem as far as finding numbers goes. In 1961 she won the seat by a ~500 vote / 5% margin (she got 52.4% of the vote) over the UP (and the PP came within 80 odd votes in the neighbouring constituency of Parktown). In 1966 she improved marginally to 52.9% while the PP did worse overall. After that, the trail dries up, but it seems likely that it would have remained fairly marginal until the UP went into it's death throes in the 1970s.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

I have absolutely nothing of value to add to this but just wanted to say a huge thank you to all of you who contributed to this. Threads like this are why I find it hard to leave Atlas even when 80% of this website is unreadable. Nowhere else will you find something like the content you get here.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I wonder if there were also results and turnout figures for the Tricarmel Parliament for Indians and Colored available as well as the electoral boundaries ?

[parochial boy]

I wonder if there were also results and turnout figures for the Tricarmel Parliament for Indians and Colored available as well as the electoral boundaries ?

Yes, I've got results for 1984 and 1989. I haven't shared them up until now out of the logic that they were essentiallya farce with no real legimitacy (and turnouts were consequently, derisory - 30% in 1984 and 18% in 1989 for the coloured election; and around 20% for both Indian ones).

Boundaries would be even more tricky I suspect - all the more as the Coloured constituencies will be overwhelmingly concentrated in the former Cape province and the Indian ones in Natal (iirc, Indians were even banned from living in the Orange Free State).

Give me a couple hours and I'll try to work some logic into them

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I wonder if there were also results and turnout figures for the Tricarmel Parliament for Indians and Colored available as well as the electoral boundaries ?

Yes, I've got results for 1984 and 1989. I haven't shared them up until now out of the logic that they were essentiallya farce with no real legimitacy (and turnouts were consequently, derisory - 30% in 1984 and 18% in 1989 for the coloured election; and around 20% for both Indian ones).

Boundaries would be even more tricky I suspect - all the more as the Coloured constituencies will be overwhelmingly concentrated in the former Cape province and the Indian ones in Natal (iirc, Indians were even banned from living in the Orange Free State).

Give me a couple hours and I'll try to work some logic into them

Thanks would be very interested in looking at them. Generally how much was the malapportionment in favour of the white minority? I know that both Tricarmel parliaments could be outvoted by the white parliament but just how bad was the split ?

[parochial boy]

OK here we go, 1984 Indian and Coloured results. I've not split them out by province for the reasons mentioned above, but tried to do something that is a bit more revealing. Old caveats about potential mistakes and stuff but the overall results do tie up with what I expected.

Indian election '84      
   
Gauteng      
Independent   42.14%   (3 seats)
National People's Party   28.45%   (1 seat)
Solidarity   22.42%   (1 seat)
Progressive Independent Party   3.67%   (1 seat)
National Federal Party   3.31%   
KwaZulu-Natal      
National People's Party   40.61%   (5 seats)
Solidarity   36.29%   (2 seats)
Independent   20.18%   (1 seat)
Progressive Independent Party   2.88%   
National Democratic Party   0.04%   
Durban      
Solidarity   41.04%   (12 seats)
National People's Party   35.04%   (7 seats)
Independent   22.38%   (2 seats)
Progressive Independent Party   0.79%   
National Federal Party   0.74%   
National Democratic Party   0.01%   
Transvaal      
Independent   38.86%   (1 seat)
Solidarity   34.83%   (1 seat)
National People's Party   26.31%   
Cape Province      
National People's Party   59.82%   (2 seats)
Independent   23.81%   (1 seat)
Solidarity   16.37%   

I probably should have split Durban between Chatsworth and non-Chatsworth electorates, but... laziness got the better of me. Fwiw "Solidarity" were allegedly a little bit more pro-regime and had higher support among people with Southern Indian origins

Coloured election '84         
Eastern Cape      
Labour Party   81.86%   (5 seats)
People's Congress Party   9.55%   
Freedom Party   6.78%   
Reformed Freedom Party   1.82%   
Free State      
Labour Party   82.98%   (5 seats)
Freedom Party   5.31%   
Reformed Freedom Party   5.17%   
People's Congress Party   3.77%   
Independent   2.78%   
Gauteng      
Labour Party   68.51%   (8 seats)
Freedom Party   19.99%   (1 seat)
People's Congress Party   7.02%   
Independent   3.64%   
Reformed Freedom Party   0.83%   
KwaZulu-Natal      
Labour Party   68.22%   (5 seats)
People's Congress Party   25.17%   
Independent   6.61%   
Northern Cape      
Labour Party   78.52%   (9 seats)
Freedom Party   7.95%   
People's Congress Party   6.55%   
Independent   5.83%   
Reformed Freedom Party   1.16%   
Western Cape      
Labour Party   73.04%   (21 seats)
People's Congress Party   15.03%   
Independent   9.49%   (1 seat)
Freedom Party   1.74%   
Reformed Freedom Party   0.70%   
Cape Flats      
Labour Party   68.10%   (11 seats)
Independent   21.42%   (1 seat)
People's Congress Party   9.58%   
Reformed Freedom Party   0.90%
(Western) Cape Flats      
People's Congress Party   59.09%   (2 seats)
Labour Party   40.17%   (4 seats)
Reformed Freedom Party   0.75%   
Transvaal      
Labour Party   78.10%   (1 seat)
Freedom Party   13.62%   
People's Congress Party   8.28%   
Cape Town      
Labour Party   79.01%   (6 seats)
People's Congress Party   16.09%   
Independent   4.22%   
Reformed Freedom Party   0.68%   
   
On a hunch I split out the Western-most Cape Flats suburbs, as in anything west of Philippi, from the rest of them on the basis that they tend to be wealther (although, actually very, very not the case for a few of them); but more specifically they tend to be more anglophone and more Muslim/Cape Malay than the suburbs further east. Was it worth doing? I think so...

Should maybe have split out the rest of the Western Cape a bit more - but given the one sided nature of the results it wouldn't really have said much

Thanks would be very interested in looking at them. Generally how much was the malapportionment in favour of the white minority? I know that both Tricarmel parliaments could be outvoted by the white parliament but just how bad was the split ?

It was more that there were three separate chambers, so malapportionment didn't really matter in that case as each communitiy elected their own parliament. In theory, each chamber would look after it's own community's matters and then collaborate one ones affecting all three. In practice, the white one had essentially all the say and the Coloured and Indian parliaments were totally subordinate.

The parliaments themselves do seem to be quite unevenly representative in any case. For instance, the modern day Northern Cape seems to be humungously overrepresented (10 seats) relative to the Eastern Cape, which only has 5 despite a much larger coloured population overall. Hard to say for sure though, as there are a bunch of seats that could quite easily cross the boundaries of the modern provinces. For example, the "Outeniqua" seat seemingly covers the entire Garden Route - ie on both sides of the modern day Eastern/Western Cape Border. Same with the likes of Mid-Karoo, which was probably geographically huge.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I know it isn't exactly what this thread is for but I'd be interested to see all the election results in Helen Suzman's seat of Houghton please.  Was she ever in danger of not making it into parliament?

We were discussing her over the weekend here - she was a tremendously interesting personality.

She won it unconstested in 1977, by a ~75-25 margin over the NRP in 1981 and about a 65-35 margin over the NP in 1987. So by that stage - as in the stage it wasn't their only seat - it was pretty safe.

As things go for earlier elections... well we have a familiar problem as far as finding numbers goes. In 1961 she won the seat by a ~500 vote / 5% margin (she got 52.4% of the vote) over the UP (and the PP came within 80 odd votes in the neighbouring constituency of Parktown). In 1966 she improved marginally to 52.9% while the PP did worse overall. After that, the trail dries up, but it seems likely that it would have remained fairly marginal until the UP went into it's death throes in the 1970s.

Out of curiosity how does the area that seat covered vote now ?

[parochial boy]

I know it isn't exactly what this thread is for but I'd be interested to see all the election results in Helen Suzman's seat of Houghton please.  Was she ever in danger of not making it into parliament?

We were discussing her over the weekend here - she was a tremendously interesting personality.

She won it unconstested in 1977, by a ~75-25 margin over the NRP in 1981 and about a 65-35 margin over the NP in 1987. So by that stage - as in the stage it wasn't their only seat - it was pretty safe.

As things go for earlier elections... well we have a familiar problem as far as finding numbers goes. In 1961 she won the seat by a ~500 vote / 5% margin (she got 52.4% of the vote) over the UP (and the PP came within 80 odd votes in the neighbouring constituency of Parktown). In 1966 she improved marginally to 52.9% while the PP did worse overall. After that, the trail dries up, but it seems likely that it would have remained fairly marginal until the UP went into it's death throes in the 1970s.

Out of curiosity how does the area that seat covered vote now ?

The ward covering Houghton went 59% DA, 18% ActionSA, 12% ANC in the municipal elections. Pretty standard for a white, anglophone area and probably the only place in the country that has voted for the same party uninterrupted since the 60s.

By the way of comparison, the nearby former safe PFP/DP safe seat of Yeoville voted 39% ANC, 21% ActionSA, 18% DA, 15% EFF - but has seen huge demographic changes since the beginning of the 90s

[Estrella]

I know it isn't exactly what this thread is for but I'd be interested to see all the election results in Helen Suzman's seat of Houghton please.  Was she ever in danger of not making it into parliament?

We were discussing her over the weekend here - she was a tremendously interesting personality.

She won it unconstested in 1977, by a ~75-25 margin over the NRP in 1981 and about a 65-35 margin over the NP in 1987. So by that stage - as in the stage it wasn't their only seat - it was pretty safe.

As things go for earlier elections... well we have a familiar problem as far as finding numbers goes. In 1961 she won the seat by a ~500 vote / 5% margin (she got 52.4% of the vote) over the UP (and the PP came within 80 odd votes in the neighbouring constituency of Parktown). In 1966 she improved marginally to 52.9% while the PP did worse overall. After that, the trail dries up, but it seems likely that it would have remained fairly marginal until the UP went into it's death throes in the 1970s.

Out of curiosity how does the area that seat covered vote now ?

The ward covering Houghton went 59% DA, 18% ActionSA, 12% ANC in the municipal elections. Pretty standard for a white, anglophone area and probably the only place in the country that has voted for the same party uninterrupted since the 60s.

By the way of comparison, the nearby former safe PFP/DP safe seat of Yeoville voted 39% ANC, 21% ActionSA, 18% DA, 15% EFF - but has seen huge demographic changes since the beginning of the 90s

Did it in 1994? Who actually voted for DP that year? Because they actually got 90k less votes than in 1989.

[parochial boy]

I know it isn't exactly what this thread is for but I'd be interested to see all the election results in Helen Suzman's seat of Houghton please.  Was she ever in danger of not making it into parliament?

We were discussing her over the weekend here - she was a tremendously interesting personality.

She won it unconstested in 1977, by a ~75-25 margin over the NRP in 1981 and about a 65-35 margin over the NP in 1987. So by that stage - as in the stage it wasn't their only seat - it was pretty safe.

As things go for earlier elections... well we have a familiar problem as far as finding numbers goes. In 1961 she won the seat by a ~500 vote / 5% margin (she got 52.4% of the vote) over the UP (and the PP came within 80 odd votes in the neighbouring constituency of Parktown). In 1966 she improved marginally to 52.9% while the PP did worse overall. After that, the trail dries up, but it seems likely that it would have remained fairly marginal until the UP went into it's death throes in the 1970s.

Out of curiosity how does the area that seat covered vote now ?

The ward covering Houghton went 59% DA, 18% ActionSA, 12% ANC in the municipal elections. Pretty standard for a white, anglophone area and probably the only place in the country that has voted for the same party uninterrupted since the 60s.

By the way of comparison, the nearby former safe PFP/DP safe seat of Yeoville voted 39% ANC, 21% ActionSA, 18% DA, 15% EFF - but has seen huge demographic changes since the beginning of the 90s

Did it in 1994? Who actually voted for DP that year? Because they actually got 90k less votes than in 1989.

Ah, you pendant the IEC have helpfully not got 1994 results in that detail available*, but I assume so on the basis that the NA's huge score relative to the DP in 1994 was largely down to Coloured voters in the Western Cape - who aren't numerous in Gauteng, even less so in an apartheid era white suburb, as well as some segment of the Conservative Party choosing the NP over the new FF+. Again, not many of those people in Houghton.

On that basis, my back of a  cigarette packet calculation was that the DP's 5,3% in Gauteng in '94 - which at the time was slightly over 20% white - probably means 15-20% of the white vote. That being a conservative estimate (I would love to see the results from Lenasia and the Indian townships in Durban in 1994 too, on that note). If the DP getting 19% of the white vote translated into around 70% support in Houghton in 1989, I feel fairly confident they won the place in 1994  - but yes that is speculation, and yes I probably should have included that disclaimer. Still a remarkable consistency relative to anywhere else in the country. Although that said, I imagine there are CP seats from the 80s where the white electorate voted FF+ in 2019/21.

*or, as they say themselves, as they didn't run the 1994 elections, which were run by a temporary electoral commission - no detailed data is available

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I know it isn't exactly what this thread is for but I'd be interested to see all the election results in Helen Suzman's seat of Houghton please.  Was she ever in danger of not making it into parliament?

We were discussing her over the weekend here - she was a tremendously interesting personality.

She won it unconstested in 1977, by a ~75-25 margin over the NRP in 1981 and about a 65-35 margin over the NP in 1987. So by that stage - as in the stage it wasn't their only seat - it was pretty safe.

As things go for earlier elections... well we have a familiar problem as far as finding numbers goes. In 1961 she won the seat by a ~500 vote / 5% margin (she got 52.4% of the vote) over the UP (and the PP came within 80 odd votes in the neighbouring constituency of Parktown). In 1966 she improved marginally to 52.9% while the PP did worse overall. After that, the trail dries up, but it seems likely that it would have remained fairly marginal until the UP went into it's death throes in the 1970s.

Out of curiosity how does the area that seat covered vote now ?

The ward covering Houghton went 59% DA, 18% ActionSA, 12% ANC in the municipal elections. Pretty standard for a white, anglophone area and probably the only place in the country that has voted for the same party uninterrupted since the 60s.

By the way of comparison, the nearby former safe PFP/DP safe seat of Yeoville voted 39% ANC, 21% ActionSA, 18% DA, 15% EFF - but has seen huge demographic changes since the beginning of the 90s

Did it in 1994? Who actually voted for DP that year? Because they actually got 90k less votes than in 1989.

Ah, you pendant the IEC have helpfully not got 1994 results in that detail available*, but I assume so on the basis that the NA's huge score relative to the DP in 1994 was largely down to Coloured voters in the Western Cape - who aren't numerous in Gauteng, even less so in an apartheid era white suburb, as well as some segment of the Conservative Party choosing the NP over the new FF+. Again, not many of those people in Houghton.

On that basis, my back of a  cigarette packet calculation was that the DP's 5,3% in Gauteng in '94 - which at the time was slightly over 20% white - probably means 15-20% of the white vote. That being a conservative estimate (I would love to see the results from Lenasia and the Indian townships in Durban in 1994 too, on that note). If the DP getting 19% of the white vote translated into around 70% support in Houghton in 1989, I feel fairly confident they won the place in 1994  - but yes that is speculation, and yes I probably should have included that disclaimer. Still a remarkable consistency relative to anywhere else in the country. Although that said, I imagine there are CP seats from the 80s where the white electorate voted FF+ in 2019/21.

*or, as they say themselves, as they didn't run the 1994 elections, which were run by a temporary electoral commission - no detailed data is available

IS VF+ still a white-supremacist party or have they kinda moderated ? What do they typicaly do in parliament ?

[parochial boy]

IS VF+ still a white-supremacist party or have they kinda moderated ? What do they typicaly do in parliament ?

I would preface an answer by saying the FF+ could have been a lot worse than they actually are. Viljoen's mere decision to take part in the 1994 election did play a certain role in de-escalating the potential for violence among radical nationalist Afrikaners, especially in the light of the Bophuthatswana crisis (where a big far-right Afrikaner militia had attempted to defend the homeland's leader Lucas Mangope against a coup seeking to install a government that would accept its reincorporation into South Africa). Especially in so far as it led most of the radicals to accept the democratic elections and kneecapped outright nazi movements like the AWB.

Otherwise, yes, the party has moderated since 1994. Back then it was largely pushing for a quasi-independent Afrikaner Volkstaat, a concept which these days has essentially dissapeared from view. Overtime it has turned more into a Afrikaner minority interests party, which in recent times has gone through varying (and varyingly succesful) attempts to branch out into being a party representing the interests of all Afrikaans speakers, ie including coloureds. For example, in 2019 it had Peter Marais* leading it in the Western Cape provincial elections; and it also recently supported coloured prison guards in a Black Economic Empowerment related labour dispute. Which is probably a good indication of what they are up to these days, mostly hotly opposing BBBEE and land redistribution, defending Afrikaans language institutions, and basically setting itself up as a minority rights party.

I wouldn't overestimate their coloured support, or the degree to which it might have moved towards a non-racial, purely linguistic outlook tbh. It's electorate remains overwhelmingly white and Afrikaner speaking, mostly people who have deeply dubious opinions regarding race or what they want South Africa to look like.

*An odd character, leader of the People's Congress Party, which won 2 seats in the 1984 coloureds-only election, and a guy who has gone through multiple political, er, transformations since then