Barack Obama

[elcorazon]

Bush was considered an underdog against Ann Richards. He wasn't "anointed" so much as Bud Selig was dragging his feet with regard to his plans, so Bush decided to run for Gov. Being a Governor is much, much more similar to the Presidency than being a legislator. Voters have strongly expressed that sentiment for decades.

The Bush family's plan was for Jeb to win in '94 and then run for President in 2000. His loss, and W's win, changed that formula. But it's factually wrong to claim W was the heir apparent all along.

Obama was a serious underdog in the dem primaries in Illinios.  Not sure how that's relevant though.  Maybe he wasn't the "planned president" initially, but he was certainly the one they ultimately chose to be the guy, rather than someone who had to make his own way in politics.

The only thing making Obama the man of the moment is the force of his own personality.

[Fritz]

Did Obama's appearance on Meet The Press today influence anyone's opinion?  It sounds clear that he *will* run, and frankly I think he's the best option the Democrats have.

[Boris]

Ugh, what are you doing Barack? Seriously, I'm a huge fan of Obama, but we cannot have an inexperienced leader in office come January 20, 2009. I mean, in 2000 we put a six year Governor of Texas - basically an amateur -  into office, and look at how great the world has turned out since then.

Admittedly, I'd probably support Obama in 2008 (his charisma would probably sway me ), but I"d still prefer a more experienced person in the White House. I wouldn't mind Obama at the bottom of the ticket, however.

[Saxwsylvania]

If Obama runs, he's the nominee.  Democrats love him and the media loves him.

Barack has got to be the luckiest politican out there.  No other Senator has a media constantly harping about how great he is, how charismatic he is, how he is so "telegenic" and so on and so forth.  No other politican has become so beloved to the press after one speech.

How about John Thune?  He defeated a sitting party leader for the first time in over forty years!  He'd make a great President!  I hope he runs.  How about David Vitter?  Richard Burr?  Jim DeMint?  Johnny Isakson?  And on the Democratic side, how about Ken Salazar?  All these people have spent just as much time in the Senate as Obama, but you don't see them being mentioned for President after less than two years after being elected.  They don't have the benefit of a mass media following them around everywhere.

Perhaps I am biased against Obama because I'm not a Democrat.  But there are many Democrats out there I'd feel more comfortable with.  Joe Biden, Evan Bayh, Bill Richardson.  Even John Edwards has had more experience!

If he is going to run in 2008, then he is going to run early so he will not accumulate a vote record that will be used against him.  He is not tested and is a dangerous man.  I hope that the Democratic primary voters have sense enough to put experience before good looks and charisma.

[TheresNoMoney]

I hope that the Democratic primary voters have sense enough to put experience before good looks and charisma.

Yeah, that worked so well with John Kerry. Charisma/communication skills are much more important than experience when it comes to getting elected.

[Nym90]

I hope that the Democratic primary voters have sense enough to put experience before good looks and charisma.

Yeah, that worked so well with John Kerry. Charisma/communication skills are much more important than experience when it comes to getting elected.

Exactly. I initially supported Kerry over Edwards in 2004 for the nomination because I figured experience mattered more, especially post 9/11, but in the end Kerry got absolutely no advantage from his more capable resume, and I think Edwards would've been the far stronger nominee.

A lack of experience only matters if it can be clearly shown that the candidate is unprepared to be commander-in-chief. So long as Obama can clearly articulate what he'd do as President, and sound reasonable and intelligent, a lack of experience won't matter.  He'd have to be caught saying something stupid that made it look like he wasn't ready for primetime.

[dazzleman]

I hope that the Democratic primary voters have sense enough to put experience before good looks and charisma.

Yeah, that worked so well with John Kerry. Charisma/communication skills are much more important than experience when it comes to getting elected.

Exactly. I initially supported Kerry over Edwards in 2004 for the nomination because I figured experience mattered more, especially post 9/11, but in the end Kerry got absolutely no advantage from his more capable resume, and I think Edwards would've been the far stronger nominee.

A lack of experience only matters if it can be clearly shown that the candidate is unprepared to be commander-in-chief. So long as Obama can clearly articulate what he'd do as President, and sound reasonable and intelligent, a lack of experience won't matter.  He'd have to be caught saying something stupid that made it look like he wasn't ready for primetime.

Kerry's problem was that he couldn't keep to a consistent position on a major issue.

[sethm0]

  After watching Meet the Press I am pretty much convinced that Obama will be President or Vice President. He is not over-hyped. He is one of the most articulate voices in politics. Tim Russert has made a career of taking not ready for prime time politicians down a peg (think John Edwards), but Obama handled the interview without breaking a sweat.

  As has been said on this board, due to Obama's lack of experience, 2008 is probably not his year. He probably knows this. I draw parallels with John Kennedy in 1954 - carefully putting himself out there to set himself up for either a VP slot or a future Presidential run.

[© tweed]

I didn't see Meet The Press today, what exactly did Obama say or do that leads everyone to believe he's running?  (and TradeSports people think so too, his stock is about at a 10, five times what it was a few weeks ago)

[jokerman]

He is quoted as saying something to that Mark Warner's recent bowing out has pushed him towards running.

[Jake]

Yeah, that worked so well with John Kerry. Charisma/communication skills are much more important than experience when it comes to getting elected.

Experience is more important to actually preforming the job.

[elcorazon]

experience is a crock.  how exactly does 4 more years in the senate make one more able to perform as president.  we don't elect experience.  we elect people.  The person is who is the president.  I hope he runs.  I think he'll run.  I hope he wins.  I think he'll win.  I also believe he'll be a good president if he gets that far.  I hope he's not at the back of the ticket.  I think he's wasted there.

[TheresNoMoney]

experience is a crock.  how exactly does 4 more years in the senate make one more able to perform as president.  we don't elect experience.  we elect people.  The person is who is the president.

Couldn't agree more.

[The Dowager Mod]

Did Obama's appearance on Meet The Press today influence anyone's opinion?  It sounds clear that he *will* run, and frankly I think he's the best option the Democrats have.

I hope not.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

The nomination isn't his, but he would have a good chance at it if he ran.

He's surged to 3rd on TradeSports, up another 1.2% just today.

Clinton 49.3%
Gore 13.1%
Obama 10.7%
Edwards 10.3%
Kerry 4.0%
Bayh 3.3%
Feingold 2.5%
Richardson 2.5%
Vilsack 2.5%
Biden 1.8%
Clark 1.5%
Schweitzer 1.0%
Warner 0.9%
Others <= 0.5%

http://www.tradesports.com/aav2/trading/tradingHTML.jsp?evID=22739&eventSelect=22739&updateList=true&showExpired=false#

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

He's got 5 books.
http://www.amazon.com/s?ie=UTF8&search-type=ss&index=books&field-author=Barack%20Obama&page=1

[YRABNNRM]

Obama/Warner would be a force to be reckoned with.

[dazzleman]

experience is a crock.  how exactly does 4 more years in the senate make one more able to perform as president.  we don't elect experience.  we elect people.  The person is who is the president.  I hope he runs.  I think he'll run.  I hope he wins.  I think he'll win.  I also believe he'll be a good president if he gets that far.  I hope he's not at the back of the ticket.  I think he's wasted there.

I think actually that high-level executive experience is pretty important, which is part of the reason why governors are elected a lot more than senators.

There is really no accountability for senators.  What makes a good senator?  A good senator is one who votes the way you want, but he/she is only one in 100, and can't really be held accountable for the results of the senate's actions.

Can you say what you think is so great about Obama?  I agree he's attractive personally, but for me, more than that is required.

[YRABNNRM]

The problem, for me, with Obama is not that fact that he has less than one term but the fact that he doesn't have any noteworthy accomplishments.

[dazzleman]

The problem, for me, with Obama is not that fact that he has less than one term but the fact that he doesn't have any noteworthy accomplishments.

There's that, plus his very liberal views.

People love the idea of this man.  He's a (half) black politician who doesn't frighten away white voters.  Pretty much a novelty.

But he hasn't done enough for there to be a serious conversation at this time about his running for president.

And once his views are known, much of the bloom is sure to go off this rose.

[Jake]

Obama would lose for much the same reasons as Kerry. The Republican nominee would push them off message by smearing them with distorted Senate votes, the same as Bush did with Kerry's Iraq War votes. It's very easy to do this to Senators and it would take a lot to keep the far left liberal tag from sticking to Obama, especially considering the company he's kept in his first Congress. Based on his Progressive Punch score, he's the 8th most liberal Senator (right there with Kennedy, Boxer, and Clinton) and he's comparatively about as liberal as Tom Coburn is conservative (this ignoring that the Progressive Punch ratings are designed to make the entire GOP caucus look like extremists).

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Approval rating:
Overall:69-25

Democrats: 89-10
Indys: 62-29
Republicans: 52-40

He's >=60% amoung every group except Republicans and conservatives.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=8390707c-aab9-464a-9b0c-80524fbcd75e

[TheresNoMoney]

Obama would lose for much the same reasons as Kerry. The Republican nominee would push them off message by smearing them with distorted Senate votes

Ummm, and I bet you don't think John McCain's 26 years of Senate votes will be a problem either?

[Boris]

Approval rating:
Overall:69-25

Democrats: 89-10
Indys: 62-29
Republicans: 52-40

He's >=60% amoung every group except Republicans and conservatives.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=8390707c-aab9-464a-9b0c-80524fbcd75e

Yes, but that was against Alan Keyes and in Illinois. If Obama wants to be President, he's going to have to win in states far less liberal than Illinois and against a far tougher opponent than Alan Keyes.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I wonder who he'd pick for his running mate.
I think Gore would make the most sense

Other posibilities:
Clinton
Edwards
Clark
Feingold
Richardson
Warner