Yougov - Biden +4
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  Yougov - Biden +4
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Author Topic: Yougov - Biden +4  (Read 1360 times)
MR DARK BRANDON
Liam
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« on: November 12, 2021, 06:29:18 PM »

Biden -  43%
Trump - 39%

(Was cited in primary section)

Again what is with these undecideds?
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Hollywood
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« Reply #1 on: November 13, 2021, 01:07:51 AM »

Some of this hypothetical.  The election is in 2024. 

This pollster is basically gathering information Democrats need in the Mid-term Election.  The questions are asking about specific issues for Democrats want to highlight as they prepare for an economically tumultuous period of the US economy, which is literally what I have heard people talk about for 10 months.  As predicted by smart people that are making money on these trends (myself included), inflation is a much worse issue than anticipated.  And nobody cares about Trump when they actually have real problems to worry about.  China is telling its citizens to hoard food, and their manufacturing sector is contracting (not good for US supplies).   

The poll numbers are bad.  It's clearly set-up to hit on the most popular issues within the 'Build Biden's Approval Better' Bill.  People clearly don't like Trump, but they also don't think Biden is capable of holding office.  I think 30% of Democrats said they want Biden as their candidate in 2024.  The guy didn't realize energy prices were a problem until after he blew our relations with Saudi Arabia despite them agreeing to lower production under Trump to save the US oil industry, and agreeing to increase production when the economy reopened.  That's the one issue that Trump had covered. 

So now we're literally reading polls where his margin of support among different demographics is a little bit worse than the early Youngkin numbers in Virginia.  You can make the case that it looks like 2016.  Surprisingly Trump is doing decent among Hispanic and white women.  Black and Young people are clearly not motivated to vote.  If Trump's got these numbers among some pretty good pollsters, Democrats are probably F-ed for the Mid-Term.  Nobodies gonna care about Trump and tales of insurrection when they can't afford or gas.  Democrats have already been trying to make it an issue with hearings. 

It's over.  Republicans have reset the table with a coalition of Trump supporters crushing in the rural areas, and Suburban voters that will be courted by more polished and polite politicians. 

Independents hate progressives.  I think over 60% blamed them for holding up the spending legislation. They are more hated than Trump.  Drop them. 

I think undecideds are just waiting to see what exactly happens. 

It's important to note that Rasmussen has started to level out with their disapproval rating of Biden, so the momentum has clearly shifted a bit since the Democrat Bill was passed.  The polls that have Biden near 50% can be thrown out.  Once all the legitimate pollsters were showing Biden underwater, the Democrats ones pretty much shifted after a medium period of time.

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redjohn
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« Reply #2 on: November 13, 2021, 03:55:02 PM »

18% undecided is very reasonable between an unpopular elderly President, and an unpopular elderly ex-President who recently lost re-election. Neither of these individuals are popular. It doesn't truly mean 18% (or any close number) would vote independent.
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Hollywood
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« Reply #3 on: November 22, 2021, 10:24:12 AM »

18% undecided is very reasonable between an unpopular elderly President, and an unpopular elderly ex-President who recently lost re-election. Neither of these individuals are popular. It doesn't truly mean 18% (or any close number) would vote independent.

It's good to have polls with undecideds, because it gives you an idea about the enthusiasm and motivation of voters. 

YouGov is no Trafalgar, but it's a useful D pollster.  It had good results in 2020, but not in a lot of 2016 polls.  However, you don't get credit for calling a race, and missing the mark by an Avg. of 5 points.  BTW... YouGov brought up every policy and talking point that Democrats have been mulling over for the past several weeks as they try to sell the infrastructure Bill as a drug cost reduction legislation.   
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #4 on: November 22, 2021, 10:36:43 AM »

While the poll is (again) worthless with that amount of undecideds, a pattern is emerging. Seems this kind of resembles the situation during the 2016 election, when 2 unpopular candidates faced off each other. Name rec for sure isn't an issue here, so the large share of undecideds can only be explained by general unpopularity/dislike of both (potential) candidates.

If election seasons nears and the campaign heats up, and Biden and Trump indeed are the nominees again, the amount of undecideds will eventually shrink. At least to a degree. If neither candidate is close to 50%, especially in swing state polling, an election becomes much less predictable. A 4 pts. lead with 43-39% is much different from a 50-46% lead.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #5 on: November 22, 2021, 11:21:03 AM »

Worth pointing out that just because a party experiences a harsh midterm, it doesn't mean they are doomed in the next presidential election too. If that were true, the past 100 years of American elections would be far different, with many more one-term presidents. Reagan, Clinton, Obama all had bad midterms and went on to win reelection comfortably (or better).
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Hollywood
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« Reply #6 on: November 22, 2021, 01:17:19 PM »

Worth pointing out that just because a party experiences a harsh midterm, it doesn't mean they are doomed in the next presidential election too. If that were true, the past 100 years of American elections would be far different, with many more one-term presidents. Reagan, Clinton, Obama all had bad midterms and went on to win reelection comfortably (or better).

It's not that complicated.  People will give leeway to people whose personalities they adore.  Bush was considered a War Criminal by leftists on this forum, and now he's just one of elite cool kids.  That's really all you need to carry yourself to victory in an election, particularly when the media uses buzzwords, photos, and videos to highlight those cool charismatic features and engrains them in the minds of voters.  It's primitive dude.  You can feel it from some people, because they have the power to make it seem like they're talking directly to you. 

Reagan, Clinton, Obama, and Bush Jr. were all very likable characters that could command an audience without raising their voices.  Cool kids usually get a second term in modern American politics.  Jimmy Carter and Bush Senior were basically nerds that had trouble looking people in the eyes without it being creepy.  The difference in personalities between the nerds and cool kids is usually a decisive factor in taking action against a blameworthy party.  Jeb Bush was so lame that nothing could help him. 

During the Democrat Primary, the media had decided that the best choice was a senile old white dude that used to be cool, because all the other contestants were so a goddamn lame.  Warren is a fake Native American too uncomfortable in her own skin.  Harris is a shifty former pig that's uncomfortable in a political party with a voter based she gladly sent to prison for tiny infractions.  Bernie Sanders is an old Larry David without the comedy, and Bootylicious is a hobbit with a inferiority complex.  Only Tulsi Gabbard was cool. 

Elections are really that simple. 
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Virginiá
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« Reply #7 on: November 22, 2021, 02:27:41 PM »
« Edited: November 22, 2021, 02:31:57 PM by Virginiá »

During the Democrat Primary, the media had decided that the best choice was a senile old white dude that used to be cool, because all the other contestants were so a goddamn lame.  Warren is a fake Native American too uncomfortable in her own skin.  Harris is a shifty former pig that's uncomfortable in a political party with a voter based she gladly sent to prison for tiny infractions.  Bernie Sanders is an old Larry David without the comedy, and Bootylicious is a hobbit with a inferiority complex.  Only Tulsi Gabbard was cool. 

I don't disagree with you on the argument of how charisma plays into elections, but you're letting your preference for conservatives skew your evaluation of Democratic primary candidates. Gabbard got a national profile because of her proximity to Bernie's 2016 campaign, but now is not liked among Democrats and widely seen as an opportunist seeking better fortunes among conservatives. She got 0.7% in the 2020 Democratic primary not because she is a Strong Charismatic Leader, but because voters didn't care for what she was selling or how she was selling it.

At any rate, charisma isn't a partisan attribute. It really doesn't have anything to do with political positions. Trump has a certain kind of charisma himself even if he is a mean-spirited bully. Obama, Clinton and Reagan all had it too. Biden and Harris don't (imo). Gabbard has even less charisma than them. If charisma was all it took to win an election, Trump should have beat Biden.
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Hollywood
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« Reply #8 on: November 22, 2021, 03:36:20 PM »

During the Democrat Primary, the media had decided that the best choice was a senile old white dude that used to be cool, because all the other contestants were so a goddamn lame.  Warren is a fake Native American too uncomfortable in her own skin.  Harris is a shifty former pig that's uncomfortable in a political party with a voter based she gladly sent to prison for tiny infractions.  Bernie Sanders is an old Larry David without the comedy, and Bootylicious is a hobbit with a inferiority complex.  Only Tulsi Gabbard was cool. 

I don't disagree with you on the argument of how charisma plays into elections, but you're letting your preference for conservatives skew your evaluation of Democratic primary candidates. Gabbard got a national profile because of her proximity to Bernie's 2016 campaign, but now is not liked among Democrats and widely seen as an opportunist seeking better fortunes among conservatives. She got 0.7% in the 2020 Democratic primary not because she is a Strong Charismatic Leader, but because voters didn't care for what she was selling or how she was selling it.

I think you forgot the reason Tulsi got into hot water with the establishment Democrats, because it's certainly not what you just expressed to me.  She pissed off Democrats cause she was anti-war like the Squad is anti-comprise with moderate Democrats.  I remember her telling the truth about Assad when the media baselessly claimed that the regime launched chemical weapons at ISIS (AKA moderate Muslims) that the US supported and funded similar to Al Qaeda.  I remember Tulsi voting against a bill that would continue neocon foreign policies.  I remember when debate moderators on pro-war networks refused to ask her, Yang and others for responses cause the moderate garbage candidates needed some room to fly.  I remember the whole primary in 2016 and 2020 being a complete sham for the presumptive nominee.  You guys kicked Tulsi out of the party cause she disagreed on some issues, so she found some air time on Fox News.  Bernie Sanders, Yang and all other misfit toys the Democrats threw away use to come on Fox News just like Ron Paul use to go on CNN and MSNBC when those networks decided they were no longer pro-war.  I remember all the media outlets were calling her Russian and an Assad toady.  One of the authors of false attacks against Tulsi actually went on Rogan, and she realized that she believed a total fabrication cause everyone else in the media just starting saying it.  That's why Rogan's long interview format is so popular.

Every Democrat is an F-ing opportunist pandering this insane dysfunctional hatred of the last President, and they've relied on attack him so much that it's become a crutch that's badly worn out from armpit sweat.  It's a competition over who can say or fabricate the most BS about Trump.  And it's not just Democrats.  All politicians are opportunists.  That's the job. Except opportunity doesn't exist in the Democrat Party when Clinton and Biden are running for the top spot.  Tulsi Gabbard is the one politician who isn't doing this out of opportunity.  She has pretty much been excommunicated from her party for not falling in line on a number of policy issues, and she's come over to the right like many other Democrats cause the left-wing has gone completely bat poop.   If someone even mentions that Kyle Rittenhouse had a gun pointed at him before he shot in self-defense, tat person would also be banished by the establishment and brand racist cause the truth is bad for the cause as Don Lemon expressed. 

A year after Cuomo klls tens of thousands of people with a policy adopted in other liberal states, the Democrats put him out to pasture with a sex scandal they've been holding onto just to blackmail him at the right opportunity.  That opportunity came when the Democrats finally had to get rid of him cause he is undoubtedly the worst Gubernatorial figure of the entire pandemic.  He's faking Covid number while lefties that attack Tulsi are alleging that DeSantis is fudging numbers cause some nutcase is unhappy with the manner that medical officials are counting infections.   

I could go on and on and on and on.   The Democrat completely warped reality in this country.  I remember in November of 2019 when videos and pictures started coming out of China about a virus coming from lab and killing people by the tens of thousands.  No?  I happened in November and December and January.   The same social and multi media companies censoring that information and branding it fake news during the impeachment hearings did this country such a great disservice.  All in the hopes of beating Trump.  Democrats don't even know the most important issues facing Americans at the moment.  It's been inflation for about 6 or 7 months.  Welcome to reality. 
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Da2017
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« Reply #9 on: November 22, 2021, 08:04:56 PM »

I don't disagree with you on the argument of how charisma plays into elections, but you're letting your preference for conservatives skew your evaluation of Democratic primary candidates. Gabbard got a national profile because of her proximity to Bernie's 2016 campaign, but now is not liked among Democrats and widely seen as an opportunist seeking better fortunes among conservatives. She got 0.7% in the 2020 Democratic primary not because she is a Strong Charismatic Leader, but because voters didn't care for what she was selling or how she was selling it.

At any rate, charisma isn't a partisan attribute. It really doesn't have anything to do with political positions. Trump has a certain kind of charisma himself even if he is a mean-spirited bully. Obama, Clinton and Reagan all had it too. Biden and Harris don't (imo). Gabbard has even less charisma than them. If charisma was all it took to win an election, Trump should have beat Biden.

Buttigieg does not have charisma either.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #10 on: November 22, 2021, 11:23:50 PM »

Although support for President Biden is weak,  support for former-President Trump i even weaker. both are known qualities, and President Biden's bad luck on Afghanistan (not his fault, as trump cut the deal). The politics involving the infrastructure bill was stressful -- but the hard struggle for it is over. I expect Democrats to now push the John Lewis Voting Rights Act, which if successful could ensure that the infamous Southern Strategy of the GOP fails outside the South.

The Capitol Putsch keeps getting convictions from participants, and this will leave a shadow over anyone in the GOP who has failed to separate himself from Donald Trump. Democrats will soon be running against an opposition in ideological disarray.  
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