Sweden election 2022

[DL]

I see the Social Democrats have a new leader and that Lofven has resigned. Seems like as good a time as any to have a thread on Swedish politics with an eye to general elections next year

[DL]

I thought that all parties agreed never to form any coalition with the neo-Nazis in SD?

[DL]

I thought that all parties agreed never to form any coalition with the neo-Nazis in SD?

Could be wrong, but I believe M and KD okay with it, but C and L are not.  Denmark, Norway, and Finland have had governments that relied on votes from far right (Progress Party in Norway, DPP in Denmark, and Finns Party in Finland) but probably would be a minority with SD propping them up but not actually part of coaltiion.

Germany, Netherlands, and Belgium however do have cordon sanitaires not to work with far right but Austria, Spain, and Italy do not so its mixed.  Be interesting in upcoming Portuguese election if right willing to work with far right Chega which is new.  

Not all extreme right parties have the same baggage or histories. The Progress Parties in Norway and Denmark have their roots in populist anti-taxation/libertarian movements dating back to the 70s and 80s...they then later adopted some standard issue anti-immigrant xenophobia. The Norwegian Progress Party most definitely does NOT see itself as the heir to Vidkun Quisling's party of Nazi collaborators.

In contrast the Sweden Democrats have much more of a history with people who literally supported Hitler and wished Germany had won world war 2! They have paramilitary goons affiliated with them who wear swastikas and which are blatantly anti-Semitic - so its a whole different kettle of fish.  

[DL]

Is there any realistic possibility that anyone other than the Social Democrats will lead the next government in Sweden? Right now S+V+MP has a big lead over M+KD+C+L and with the SDs surging and mainly taking votes from the more respectable right of centre parties doesnt that make it impossible for the so-called "blue block" to forma  government? Especially since i think I read that C (and maybe L) refuse to be part of any government that depends on SD for support.

[DL]

Is there any realistic possibility that anyone other than the Social Democrats will lead the next government in Sweden? Right now S+V+MP has a big lead over M+KD+C+L and with the SDs surging and mainly taking votes from the more respectable right of centre parties doesnt that make it impossible for the so-called "blue block" to forma  government? Especially since i think I read that C (and maybe L) refuse to be part of any government that depends on SD for support.

You have the math wrong. 2018 is 4 years ago. C is no longer effectively part of the Blue Bloc. The Blues have accepted SD as one of their own, though it would be a confidence partner with significant influence over any potential government and not a leader. SD and C (as well as other Social Democratic allies) are mutually incompatible. C made this clearer earlier in the month. So the math now is S+MP+V+C vs M+KD+L+SD.

And that math means the blocks are effectively tied. Pick your poll and one block won't be leading by more than 2%, often times less than 1%.

So in other words a vote for the Liberals or the Moderaterna is now effectively a vote for the neo-Nazis in the SD.

[DL]

it is interesting how Sweden is now following Norway in this new configuration whereby the Centre/Sentre party is part of the red bloc rather than the blue bloc. Any explanation for this? What parties in Finland and Denmark would be equivalent to the Centre party?   

[DL]

What is the "raison d'etre" of the Liberals in Sweden? What do they stand for that isn't already amply covered either by the Centre Party or the Moderates?

At one time they billed themselves as a socially liberal middle of the road party that would appeal to teachers and intellectuals - but now they have decided to support a government dependent on and at the beck and call of the neo-Nazis in SD - so they are now basically identical to the Moderates. Why do they exist at all?

[DL]

What is the "raison d'etre" of the Liberals in Sweden? What do they stand for that isn't already amply covered either by the Centre Party or the Moderates?

At one time they billed themselves as a socially liberal middle of the road party that would appeal to teachers and intellectuals - but now they have decided to support a government dependent on and at the beck and call of the neo-Nazis in SD - so they are now basically identical to the Moderates. Why do they exist at all?

The impression I get is still kinda serving that very small base of those too progressive for any other Right party, to fiscally conservative for C or M. But the real reason for existing still is to just get over the threshold. The right as a whole can't see them waste 2% of the vote, as polls during the off-season these days say, so voters act tactically.

I can understand why some people might still vote for the Liberals to keep them above the 4% hurdle...but my question is why do they exist at all? Why don't they just fold as a party? If the reason for them to exist is to give socially liberal but fiscally conservative people a party to vote for - doesn't the Centre party already offer that and C is not selling its soul by agreeing to the formation of a government that includes neo-Nazis.

[DL]

Asking again:

Do absentees usually lean one way or the other in Sweden?

They have usually tended to be good for the Moderates and Greens. This is mostly thanks to Swedish citizens voting from abroad often tend to be well-off educated middle-class types. But with the Social Democrats gains among that very demographic this time around, it's hard to tell how it'll play out this time. 

Given the makeup of Swedish citizens voting from abroad, they will likely skew heavily against the SDs so its not inconceivable that maybe M gains a seat but it comes from SD and that leaves the two blocs still at 175-174

[DL]

Some very specific questions to our Swedes:

1. Why is SD so strong in Dalarna compared to surrounding regions?
2. What's the deal with Gotland? Left-wing overperformance, SD weak, etc.
3. What would be a good explanation for SD's relative weakness in Västerbotten (also compared to Norrbotten)?

I'm afraid that I don't really have any good answers to these questions.

I have also wondered why SD does so poorly on Gotland, considering how well they do in other rural areas. If you find out, please tell me.

I mean C historically has strong ties and a loyal base on Gotland - them aligning with S this time partially explains the block's overperformance.

Well yes, that part is very easy to explain. It's more the weakness of the Sweden Democrats that perplexes me.

Are there maybe just not a meaningful number of immigrants in Gotland? I can see why residents of an isolated island might feel immigration and perceived related crime on the mainland are less of an issue to them than even other rural areas with few immigrants in the same country, thus making SD uniquely less appealing.

That being said, there is a common phenomenon of anti-immigrant parties doing really well in rural backwaters that have zero immigrants. LePen doesnt get votes in Paris or Lyons where there are tons of immigrants. She does well in rural backwaters that no immigrant would ever want to move to in the first place since there are no jobs! To make a Canadian analogy i suspect the political attitudes on Gotland and likely more like Prince Edward Island (very small l liberal with a big Green party) and like like rightwing rural Ontario

[DL]

Seems like it might make a lot of sense for the Blue Bloc to kick out the Liberals and bring in the Cs, no? Pad the majority and get rid of a group of MPs who seem particularly insufferable

I'm no expert on Swedish politics but i would imagine that since C ran on such a very explicitly anti-SD platform in this election, many (if not most) C Riksdag members would also be very averse to supporting a government that involves the neo-Nazi party and might also rebel