Sweden election 2022

[mileslunn]

M + KD + SD could win a majority although hard to say.  I believe C and L prefer coalition with M + KD but unwilling to support a government that relies on SD so may vote to continue current coalition.  Left wing one of S + MP + V seems extremely unlikely.

[mileslunn]

I thought that all parties agreed never to form any coalition with the neo-Nazis in SD?

Could be wrong, but I believe M and KD okay with it, but C and L are not.  Denmark, Norway, and Finland have had governments that relied on votes from far right (Progress Party in Norway, DPP in Denmark, and Finns Party in Finland) but probably would be a minority with SD propping them up but not actually part of coaltiion.

Germany, Netherlands, and Belgium however do have cordon sanitaires not to work with far right but Austria, Spain, and Italy do not so its mixed.  Be interesting in upcoming Portuguese election if right willing to work with far right Chega which is new. 

[mileslunn]

I thought that all parties agreed never to form any coalition with the neo-Nazis in SD?

Could be wrong, but I believe M and KD okay with it, but C and L are not.  Denmark, Norway, and Finland have had governments that relied on votes from far right (Progress Party in Norway, DPP in Denmark, and Finns Party in Finland) but probably would be a minority with SD propping them up but not actually part of coaltiion.

Germany, Netherlands, and Belgium however do have cordon sanitaires not to work with far right but Austria, Spain, and Italy do not so its mixed.  Be interesting in upcoming Portuguese election if right willing to work with far right Chega which is new.  

Not all extreme right parties have the same baggage or histories. The Progress Parties in Norway and Denmark have their roots in populist anti-taxation/libertarian movements dating back to the 70s and 80s...they then later adopted some standard issue anti-immigrant xenophobia. The Norwegian Progress Party most definitely does NOT see itself as the heir to Vidkun Quisling's party of Nazi collaborators.

In contrast the Sweden Democrats have much more of a history with people who literally supported Hitler and wished Germany had won world war 2! They have paramilitary goons affiliated with them who wear swastikas and which are blatantly anti-Semitic - so its a whole different kettle of fish.  

It wouldn't be a coalition, would be a minority propped up by them, but yeah still could look bad as Sweden Democrats definitely are one of the more extreme ones.

I don't think either Blue or Red alliance is likely to get a majority thus will be some type of agreement either M + KD - propped up by SD but not part of coalition or S + MP propped up by C + L + V.

[mileslunn]

I believe Andersson is more left wing so no surprise Liberals would ditch party as unlike in North America, I believe Swedish Liberals are more your classical liberal type as right wing on economics, left wing on social issues.  Any link that gives details of budget from government and opposition?  Be curious on that.

[mileslunn]

Among voters aged 18-21: M 26, SD 22, S 19.

https://twitter.com/indubioproreto/status/1569159936919371777

Idea Millennials and Gen Z lean left is more an Anglosphere phenomenon than global.  Outside Anglosphere its a mix and general trend is more non-traditional parties, not necessarily left or right.  Even in Anglosphere, UK is real outlier where Millennials/Gen Z massively favour Labour.  In US once you adjust for race and education, age gap largely disappears.  Democrat dominance of Millennials/Gen Z has more to do with fact less white and more educated.  In Canada that was more a one off in 2015 when Trudeau first won and yes Millennials then voted massively Liberal but in last two elections Conservative support amongst Millennials/Gen Z has only been 3-5 points lower than overall support and even there big gender divide with Conservatives winning males under 35 but losing badly amongst females under 35. 

In case of UK, when polled on issues age gap is much smaller than voter intention is so I think its more a reflection of Tories being in power for over a decade and younger voters feeling they are not getting ahead.  I suspect if Labour was in power for 10 years, it would be a very different story.

[mileslunn]

I am still confused why the North votes SD, is it because of Sami voters, is it like Northern MN where it's more because of unions?

Northern and central Sweden is very industrial, so northern MN is the right idea. In the far north (Norbotten) you have a lot of mining for example.

It's also, not as rural as it might appear. Don't get me wrong, there a clearly very left-wing rural areas in the North, but if you look at Norbotten, the most left-wing region in the country, 37% of the population lives in the two major settlements of Luleå and Piteå at the coast.  

To add on to this, I hate to paint things with very broad brushes, but this is one case where such things apply. There are really only three reasons why people choose live in the earth's extremes - deserts, mountaintops, frozen wastes - if they have the opportunity to choose and live elsewhere:

1) Tradition. "My parents and their parents and their parents lived here and so shall I." Does not exclusively apply to native/indigenous/minority groups, though they are a large component. Abandoning community is a big ask, especially in a part of the world where such ties are strong. Usually votes left for identity, the necessity of local government access and services, or community related reasons.

2) Money. Usually obtained through resource extraction. Oil workers align right, miners usually left and pro-union. If transitory, where no single group of residents wants to be there for more than needed, against whatever will demand more of them than the contract asked.

3) Military. Self-explanatory and usually votes Right.

If you plot right vs. left in relation to population density you get more a U shape then straight line less dense is more right wing.  Its just that outside Canada, Norway, Sweden, and Finland you don't really have much of those sparsely populated areas.  North of Norway, Finland and Canada all generally go left so I think living in a cold harsh climate, people rely more on government services.  I also noticed that municipalities with highest tax rates are mostly in the North too.  Average municipal rate is 32%, but in Southern Sweden most are in the 29-32% whereas in the North most are 34-35% so probably due to logistics, things require more government funding so people favour parties that will favour an activist government vs. smaller (Yeah I know Sweden right is not your small government like in English speaking world, but still talking relative)

[mileslunn]

North of Norway, Finland and Canada all generally go left

North of Finland does not go left. It's Centre Party territory, and the Finnish Centre is very much a bourgeois party notwithstanding its current coalition with the left.

But is the north of Finland particularly "bourgeois" socio-culturally?

I thought Centre party dominated more the central rural parts while Lapland is strongly Social Democrat and while not exactly same it seems rural areas where you can still farm lean right while rural areas that are mostly forests and too far north to farm go for S.  Be interesting in both Canada, Norway, Finland, and Sweden to see map of voting patterns compared to arable land as could be wrong but kind of have hunch things swing left once you get above point where it is suitable for farming.  Just a guess, but an educated one.

[mileslunn]

Any updates on the talks between M, SD, KD and L?

Unfortunately not many, as the negotiations are being conducted with great secrecy.

There are unofficial reports that the conservative bloc quickly reached consensus on immigration and criminal policies, but those were always the easiest lift. Back in May 2021, the four parties agreed to seven points regarding migration policy, and SD said this was acceptable as "a minimum":

• Limit the new grounds for residence permits on humanitarian grounds.
• Legislate on requirements for knowledge of Swedish and social studies for a permanent residence permit.
• The exceptions to the requirements for a permanent residence permit must be limited.
• Tightening requirements for support in the case of family members immigrating with regard to alternative protection needs.
• The exceptions to the support requirement for family immigration must be limited.
• Other criteria for relative immigration must be limited.
• Limit the deadline for the immigration of relatives of quota refugees.

Now they are reportedly moving onto the budget negotiations, which are probably the most divisive debates. M and L want to slash the elevated unemployment benefits put in place during the pandemic, SD is opposed. The parties also disagree on cutting other benefits, which benefits and by how much are a mix-and-match game amongst the four parties. SD and M want to slash foreign aid, KD and L want the current levels to stay. Tax policy and housing policy will also be divisive points. However, they probably will agree on scrapping plans for new high-speed trains through Sweden, and instead maintain current investments into existing rail infrastructure.

But otherwise, can't really say much.


It will also be interesting to see if SD returns to their roots as a viciously anti-union party that wants a wholesale repeal of the LAS and MBL; they have successfully hidden this for most of the past 8 years but occasionally let the facade slip as we saw with the November 2019 budget vote. It is a common misconception both inside and outside of Sweden that SD is just S-with-fewer-immigrants, but for most of its history, SD has hated the unions just as much as the Social Democrats.

In other news:

- Andersson has reached out to Kristersson and informed him that S would be open to voting for a Moderate for Speaker of the Riksdag, arguing that the Speaker should have broad consensus and "it is a question of Sweden's image in the world". Dunno how that will play out, and either way I think Norlen will continue as Speaker for another 4 years as he earned a lot of respect over the past 4 years for being a no-nonsense and impartial Speaker. The Greens are also open for this, but no word from V yet.

- V and Mp reported that they saw record numbers of new members since the election, with V gaining 3,000 net new members and Mp 2,000 net new members. V expects their dues-paying membership to exceed 30,000 well before the year-end.

- Aftonbladet has published a very informative interactive guide to the election "So Voted Sweden", which breakdowns where SD has its strongholds, where it gained the most, where C lost the most and why, and also focuses on smaller parties like Nyans. The page works very well with the Chrome Translate extension if you cannot read Swedish (recommend desktop instead of mobile): https://www.aftonbladet.se/valresultat2022/sa-rostade-sverige/

What are tax policy views?  Are parties for cutting income rates or just more tax credits for those below certain income, or perhaps raising threshold in which federal 20% rate kicks in?  How about housing, is that a huge issue there and what are party views.