Sweden election 2022

[Oryxslayer]

Here's Wikipedia's list/average of polls presently as we approach the actual election. If we treat the 4 aligned Right parties as one block, and their opposition as another - even though it isn't as formally linked - it is effectively a tied race. The issue is that MP/The Greens are below the threshold and if they don't make it in then its GG, Conservative majority barring any surprises. Maybe therefore S shouldn't be running such a personalistic campaign, since a presidential-style contest will lead to a percentage of voters within each camp migrating to the "presidential" candidates.

[Oryxslayer]

Are the Swedish democrats still too toxic to be included in any possible goverment ?

Not really, I believe. The Moderates, Liberals and Christian Democrats have a "collaboration agreement" with SD and they have presented some conjoint policies. Not sure if they will be part of a coalition government, but SD will support a proposed Moderate PM and, unlike 2018, M-L-KD will accept that support.

Yeah, M-L-KD-SD are basically the right bloc now, M and KD had already been on board with an SD backed government and then around a year ago, the Liberals left the current centre-left government and said they’d be okay with a government supported by the Swedish Democrats.

This is why I consider Loof and Centre part of the government block, even though they might dispute this assertation. M and their allies have committed themselves to SD which means Loof has only S and the present government as potential partners.  Loof refusing to work with some of the Left parties post-election, or vice versa, would make the Conservative position all the stronger.

[Oryxslayer]

https://www.dn.se/sverige/annie-loof-vi-ar-beredda-att-sitta-i-en-s-regering/

Well she's finally gone and made it official. Annie Lööf has now said that her preferred Prime Minister is Magdalena Andersson. Obviously with a lot caveats about a future government needing to lean towards the centre ground of politics and the Left Party having as little influence as possible, but a lot of C members, including the youth league, are still very critical.

But she really didn't have much of a choice. C has lost 2-3% in opinion polls compared to last year, and most of those voters appear to have gone to the Social Democrats. If she's going to have any hope of winning some of those people back, tying herself closer to Andersson is probably the smart move.

There also obviously is no place for her in a Conservative government presently - though that might have been an unsaid assumption.

[Oryxslayer]

How much of an issue has the crime surge been?

It's one of the major points of discussion in the election campaign. I think one poll showed law and order as the most important issue for voters and Magdalena Andersson has tried to cultivate an image as tough on crime, although she is under attack from the opposition who says that since the Social Democrats haven't been able to do anything about crime for 8 years it's hard to believe they'll be succesful this time around.

If the blue bloc win this election I think crime and the energy crisis are the two major factors behind it. 

Care to elaborate a bit on the energy crisis? Is is any different from the rest of the continent? Something unique I have seen recently is that Sweden started up Gas plants again to deal with the high demand. This seems like an ideal point of attack by the nuclear-devoted Conservative Alliance, since specifically burning Russian Gas in an emergency caused by Russia while also attempting to join NATO seem contradictory.

[Oryxslayer]

Is there any realistic possibility that anyone other than the Social Democrats will lead the next government in Sweden? Right now S+V+MP has a big lead over M+KD+C+L and with the SDs surging and mainly taking votes from the more respectable right of centre parties doesnt that make it impossible for the so-called "blue block" to forma  government? Especially since i think I read that C (and maybe L) refuse to be part of any government that depends on SD for support.

You have the math wrong. 2018 is 4 years ago. C is no longer effectively part of the Blue Bloc. The Blues have accepted SD as one of their own, though it would be a confidence partner with significant influence over any potential government and not a leader. SD and C (as well as other Social Democratic allies) are mutually incompatible. C made this clearer earlier in the month. So the math now is S+MP+V+C vs M+KD+L+SD.

And that math means the blocks are effectively tied. Pick your poll and one block won't be leading by more than 2%, often times less than 1%.

[Oryxslayer]

Is there any realistic possibility that anyone other than the Social Democrats will lead the next government in Sweden? Right now S+V+MP has a big lead over M+KD+C+L and with the SDs surging and mainly taking votes from the more respectable right of centre parties doesnt that make it impossible for the so-called "blue block" to forma  government? Especially since i think I read that C (and maybe L) refuse to be part of any government that depends on SD for support.

You have the math wrong. 2018 is 4 years ago. C is no longer effectively part of the Blue Bloc. The Blues have accepted SD as one of their own, though it would be a confidence partner with significant influence over any potential government and not a leader. SD and C (as well as other Social Democratic allies) are mutually incompatible. C made this clearer earlier in the month. So the math now is S+MP+V+C vs M+KD+L+SD.

And that math means the blocks are effectively tied. Pick your poll and one block won't be leading by more than 2%, often times less than 1%.

So in other words a vote for the Liberals or the Moderaterna is now effectively a vote for the neo-Nazis in the SD.

Congats, you now know why things are awful. Though M and KD weren't exactly to different from SD the last four years, it was the Liberals who had to jump through a few hoops.

[Oryxslayer]

New question: are there any preparations being made for a 'deadlocked' government? Basically, all the polls say that one block or the other will have a majority with the margin between them in seats likely measurable on one hand. I'm reminded of the reaction to the surprise near-tied 2018 results, but that time there was potential negotiations to get C+L to either agree to SD support or a S government. Unless someone decides to consistently break the blocks (L?) Sweden will seemingly be back to the pre-election parliamentary gridlock and that situation was barely and unhappily maintained to prevent an early election right before the regular one.

[Oryxslayer]

Exit poll has it neck-to-neck between the two blocs

Still, very bad for the Moderates, although a bit better than the TV4's poll.

I mean the smallest of polling errors looking at the SVT exit gives them control of government, so I'm not sure anyone is particularly sad until the votes are added up.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1569025440391512069?s=20&t=BKF9s-5jX...

A real limited change situation. Net block change would be S+1 seat.

[Oryxslayer]

What did the Liberals do with regards to working with the Swedish democrats ?

*shrugs*

Same really as C and V on the same team, a tight result is kinda up in the air if the blocks hold whatsoever after the election.

[Oryxslayer]

256,627 votes in, or probably about 3% of the total.

S: 30%
V: 7.8%
C: 7.1%
MP: 5%

49.9%

SD: 22.3%
M: 16.4%
KD: 5.6%
L: 3.8%

48.1%

[Oryxslayer]

Block Results presently in line with the exit poll at 2,214,422 votes or likely a little over 1/3 of total:

S: 30.4%
V: 7.4%
C: 6.7%
MP: 5.3%

49.8%

M: 18.3%
SD: 20.6%
KD: 5.3%
L: 4.5%

48.7%

[Oryxslayer]

The vote of the right wing bloc has steadily been increasing for some time and they now have a 0,3% lead.

Is there any difference in what areas has been counted - i.e., more right- or left-wing strongholds remaining?

Gap is at 0.5% now.

IDK, could someone answer? Just clicking around on the map reveals a bunch of empty rural turf and the cities have a lot of the precincts (?) filled in, but obviously reporting might not equal fully counted. And like the official site says x/y reporting, but once again reporting does not equal done. But if it does, well it's the Stockholm (region) with a lot unreported which is usually one of the best places for the Right.

[Oryxslayer]

If I am reading it right, I think a lot of this right-surge came from the Stolkholm region (suburbs) which was behind the national count by quite a lot and is now in line with it.

[Oryxslayer]

Checking the national site, once again the Stolkholm suburbs are behind the national average count, so the Right may gain again, but not by that much given the prese3nt state of the count.

[Oryxslayer]

So the right is really going to win? Despite the polls I never expected that, considering Magda's approvals. S's campaign must have been truly abysmal.

At the moment tis looks to be the case, maybe a majority of 2 if the Right Block is lucky. But as we all knew going in, if voters returned another narrow majority either way it would have problems with C and V or SD and L. If S's block won then there was talk of them initially exploring other more numerous options, but unless the blocks break in some fashion then the Right will no doubt try to use their advantage of 1.

However this all still doesn't change the arithmetic we new from the outset, that a different option will be needed if either block pursues their pre-election government and it inevitably is unable to leverage much though a single seat. 

[Oryxslayer]

So the right is really going to win? Despite the polls I never expected that, considering Magda's approvals. S's campaign must have been truly abysmal.

From what I've read here, it wasn't abysmal, but it wasn't fantastic either but they were still able to grow a bit. The Moderates, on the other hand, indeed had a abysmal campaign and despite polling third, were still able to win 19% of the votes and the keys for the Prime Ministership.

This election has Denmark 2015 vibes...

What was that someone said yesterday...that Swedish politics are basically Danish politics ten years later and dumber?

[Oryxslayer]

The combined right is presently doing worse in Stockholm than in Malmo, Gothenburg, and even Uppsala in case we want to pile more evidence on the pile of #trends.

[Oryxslayer]

Gap between the blocks is now 1% in favor of the right for the first time in the count.

[Oryxslayer]

Anyway, up until Löfven quit I expected the SAP to be absolutely pulped in this election just on pure 'don't they look tired' grounds, so I suppose against that backdrop Andersson holding the right to 175-174 or whatever is pretty good even if it's not what I let myself hope for.

It looks like Andersson mostly gained voters from her coalition partners.

I mean this is sort of "typical" it seems for S, cause at the national level a lot of the voters who are voters for the Social Democratic coalition parties are 'loaned' to protect from the threshold. This is a new phenomenon for C, but it still also occurred. So whenever those parties are safe, voters return to the electoral flagship.

Obviously locally there are actual strongholds which make MP, V, and others major local parties in various regions, so the phenomenon is less relevant.

[Oryxslayer]

Back to one-seat rather than two gap at the moment.

[Oryxslayer]

Aftonbladet has a neat election map, all the way down to precinct level.

Thanks for posting this, cool map!

Now I'm curious why The Left / V does so well in downtown Malmö... They get upwards of 45% in some places which is completely out of sync with other urban Swedish areas.

Immigrant communities.

[Oryxslayer]

What is the "raison d'etre" of the Liberals in Sweden? What do they stand for that isn't already amply covered either by the Centre Party or the Moderates?

At one time they billed themselves as a socially liberal middle of the road party that would appeal to teachers and intellectuals - but now they have decided to support a government dependent on and at the beck and call of the neo-Nazis in SD - so they are now basically identical to the Moderates. Why do they exist at all?

The impression I get is still kinda serving that very small base of those too progressive for any other Right party, to fiscally conservative for C or M. But the real reason for existing still is to just get over the threshold. The right as a whole can't see them waste 2% of the vote, as polls during the off-season these days say, so voters act tactically.

[Oryxslayer]

Arguably the most #Trends results map Sweden has ever had. A sea of blue across the south, except when there is a city.

[Oryxslayer]

Among voters aged 18-21: M 26, SD 22, S 19.

I mean its well documented that in western European multiparty systems the blocks are evolving, often to the detriment of traditional right and left parties. This means that there are often large age gaps between those preferred by the old and the young. Greens, Libertarian/Liberals, Socialist Radicals, populists, and many more if the system allows for them like in the Netherlands.

The most recognizable reasons for this are the evolution of issue preferences and modes of socialization. The internet has allowed people to better judge the viability of small parties allowed those small parties to reach their targeted audience. Instant communication also allows for socialization across large distances and to more focused communities. This differs from the pre-internet days when socialization was more local and driven by community networks. In the Netherlands this old mode had a name, pillarization, because the social connections between the pillars of society rarely intermingled. But you were still more likely in every country to align with the party of your local church, paper, union, club, because contrasting views were harder to come by.

Its rather unique in Sweden that the formerly near-absolute strength of the Social Democrats means that they are the only party who noticeably falls victim to this trend, whereas in other countries usually a mirroring party of the right also suffers from this trend.