Some very specific questions to our Swedes:
1. Why is SD so strong in Dalarna compared to surrounding regions?
2. What's the deal with Gotland? Left-wing overperformance, SD weak, etc.
3. What would be a good explanation for SD's relative weakness in Västerbotten (also compared to Norrbotten)?
I'm afraid that I don't really have any good answers to these questions.
I have also wondered why SD does so poorly on Gotland, considering how well they do in other rural areas. If you find out, please tell me.
I mean C historically has strong ties and a loyal base on Gotland - them aligning with S this time partially explains the block's overperformance.
Well yes, that part is very easy to explain. It's more the weakness of the Sweden Democrats that perplexes me.
Are there maybe just not a meaningful number of immigrants in Gotland? I can see why residents of an isolated island might feel immigration and perceived related crime on the mainland are less of an issue to them than even other rural areas with few immigrants in the same country, thus making SD uniquely less appealing.
That being said, there is a common phenomenon of anti-immigrant parties doing really well in rural backwaters that have zero immigrants. LePen doesnt get votes in Paris or Lyons where there are tons of immigrants. She does well in rural backwaters that no immigrant would ever want to move to in the first place since there are no jobs! To make a Canadian analogy i suspect the political attitudes on Gotland and likely more like Prince Edward Island (very small l liberal with a big Green party) and like like rightwing rural Ontario
I agree, but Gotland and PEI have a lot more in common geographically, too! (And at least PEI has a bridge to the mainlnd; maybe Newfoundland is more apt.) The point being that rural areas in the mainland fear immigrants will move there or otherwise fear the perceived decline of adjoining urban/suburban areas, but rural areas that are truly isolated, especially islands accessible only by ferry or plane, feel the perceived problems of the mainland ostensibly created by immigrants are much more removed from their day-to-day existence, including by the psychological barrier created by physical isolation. And it probably is true that immigrants are more likely to move to, say, Borlange than to Visby, even if both have low immigrant populations now.
I think social cohesion is probably higher on isolated islands, too. SD may lay claim to a lot of traditional values, but ultimately they are drawing votes from people who are disaffected by the decline of socially cohesive institutions, not people who still feel a strong communal connection.
