Sweden election 2022

[Mike88]

Are the Swedish democrats still too toxic to be included in any possible goverment ?

Not really, I believe. The Moderates, Liberals and Christian Democrats have a "collaboration agreement" with SD and they have presented some conjoint policies. Not sure if they will be part of a coalition government, but SD will support a proposed Moderate PM and, unlike 2018, M-L-KD will accept that support.

[Mike88]

Why not some early 2000s nostalgia? I mean, things were pretty good back then, everyone was optimistic, new technologies were arriving and so on. And then came 9/11 and here we are, with economic depressions, pandemics, wars, etc...

But to be fair, the logo kinda reminds me of NSYNC... xD

[Mike88]

Why the sudden rise of SD and the fall of the Moderates in the polls? Is this because of the donations scandal, or just horrible campaigning by the Moderates?

In 2018, some polls, two weeks before the election, even put SD in the lead, but in the end they ended in third.

[Mike88]

Standard questions of
a) When do polls close
b) live stream for exit polls and count
c) links to live results

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1568841517942427652

a) 7pm London time; 2pm New York time
b) SVT coverage: https://www.svtplay.se/video/36466051/val-2022-sverige-rostar?id=KZApJ9P
c) VAL, Electoral Commission, vote count: https://resultat.val.se/val2022/prel/RD/rike

[Mike88]

Standard questions of
a) When do polls close
b) live stream for exit polls and count
c) links to live results

a) 7pm London time; 2pm New York time
b) SVT coverage: https://www.svtplay.se/video/36466051/val-2022-sverige-rostar?id=KZApJ9P
c) VAL, Electoral Commission, vote count: https://resultat.val.se/val2022/prel/RD/rike

Adding some additional resources in case someone's feed has problems:

TV4 live coverage: https://www.tv4play.se/program/valet-2022/live/13784847?utm_source=tv4.se&utm_medium=partner&utm_campaign=upsell

Aftobladet live coverage: https://tv.aftonbladet.se/video/346156/aftonbladets-valvaka-2022

Youtube link:

TV4 "exit poll" in 10 minutes.

[Mike88]

TV4's way to present their poll is just... infuriating.

[Mike88]

TV4 poll:

50.6% Leftwing+Center
48.0% Rightiwng

Now, let's see the real exit poll from SVT. 5 minutes.

[Mike88]

Love M eating sh**t, that's what you get for selling your soul to rightwing populism

Their election night venue also looks fitting: a bar it seems. They will probably need a good strong drink after tonight.

[Mike88]

SVT exit poll:

49.8% Leftwing+Center, 176 seats
49.2% Rightwing, 173

[Mike88]

Exit poll has it neck-to-neck between the two blocs

Still, very bad for the Moderates, although a bit better than the TV4's poll.

[Mike88]

Exit poll has it neck-to-neck between the two blocs

Still, very bad for the Moderates, although a bit better than the TV4's poll.

I mean the smallest of polling errors looking at the SVT exit gives them control of government, so I'm not sure anyone is particularly sad until the votes are added up.

Yeah, like Lord Marbury said, because everything seems so close and last time, 2018, exit polls also put M in third and in the end they finished second, not to mention S polled much better than the exit poll. Let's wait for the results.

[Mike88]

Results are starting to appear. 11 out 6,578 distritcs reporting.

30.3% S
24.2% SD
13.2% M
  9.4% V
  6.5% C
  6.4% KD
  3.7% MP
  2.7% L
  3.6% Others

[Mike88]

Looks like it will be a status quo election but massive shifts under the hood

Is there way to compare these first results, with their votes in 2018? The sites seem to compare with the final 2018 shares.

[Mike88]

1,305 out of 6,578 districts counted (1,038,549 ballots counted)

30.1% S
20.9% SD
17.6% M
  7.9% V
  6.8% C
  5.3% KD
  5.3% MP
  4.3% L
  1.8% Others

[Mike88]

Well, things changed a "bit" since I went to dinner...

Also, turnout doesn't seem that big.

[Mike88]

5,643 out of 6,578 districts counted: (5,626,614 ballots)

30.5% S
20.7% SD
19.0% M
  6.7% C
  6.7% V
  5.4% KD
  5.0% MP
  4.6% L
  1.5% Others

49.7% Rightwing
48.9% Leftwing+Center

[Mike88]

So the right is really going to win? Despite the polls I never expected that, considering Magda's approvals. S's campaign must have been truly abysmal.

From what I've read here, it wasn't abysmal, but it wasn't fantastic either but they were still able to grow a bit. The Moderates, on the other hand, indeed had a abysmal campaign and despite polling third, were still able to win 19% of the votes and the keys for the Prime Ministership.

This election has Denmark 2015 vibes...

[Mike88]

The Moderates, on the other hand, indeed had a abysmal campaign and despite polling third, were still able to win 19% of the votes and the keys for the Prime Ministership.

Which isn't very healthy and is unlikely to work out terribly well for them, or for political stability generally. This would be a catastrophically weak government with essentially only a negative mandate.

No question, it will be a very weak government, with probably a lot of tensions. Like Clarko95 said, another "4 years of fun". :/

[Mike88]

Interesting that the most depressed election night parties seem to be V, S and M, especially M.

[Mike88]

Projected right-wing majority is now 2.

Back to 1 seat majority.

[Mike88]

Projected right-wing majority is now 2.

Back to 1 seat majority.

Back again to a 2 seat majority. It's a ping pong race.

[Mike88]

For those who understand Swedish: What was the content, and key points, of Andersson and Kristersson speeches?

[Mike88]

But SD won't actually be in government, will it?

It shouldn't, as L won't allow it.

But would not SD ask for their pound of flesh in terms of policy for them to back a M government from the outside ?

Yes, which L also promises to block. Hence something needs to give. Either L caves completely or SD accepts being merely a crutch for Alliansen politics. Or alternatively this entire charade collapses and either S and M work out a deal or we get new elections

Or, Sweden, like it was raised here in this thread, follows, again, the Danish path and SD totally colapses in the next election. Who knows at this point. All scenarios seem to be open.

[Mike88]

Any updates on the talks between M, SD, KD and L?

[Mike88]

But also passing big tax cuts in an inflationary environment is uhhhhh not a very good idea? And if the Riksbank has to jack up interest rates in response then that could really f-k over the economy and especially the housing market which would NOT go over well with M's voter base.

Getting strong 1991 vibes from this tbh

It depends on the details. If you have income tax cuts but no change in indirect taxes, like VAT for example, there could some fiscal balance as normal VAT rates+inflation could generate a big return. But, it's literally giving with one hand and taking with the other.