Sweden election 2022

[Helsinkian]

One poll (Sentio) shows SD as the largest party -- the first poll to show that since October 2021 (that was also a Sentio poll).

Why does Sentio give much better numbers for SD than other pollsters?

[Helsinkian]

Some early votes are not counted until wednesday, correct? How many votes are those? Is it enough to change the election's outcome?

[Helsinkian]

Among voters aged 18-21: M 26, SD 22, S 19.

https://twitter.com/indubioproreto/status/1569159936919371777

[Helsinkian]

North of Norway, Finland and Canada all generally go left

North of Finland does not go left. It's Centre Party territory, and the Finnish Centre is very much a bourgeois party notwithstanding its current coalition with the left.

[Helsinkian]

North of Norway, Finland and Canada all generally go left

North of Finland does not go left. It's Centre Party territory, and the Finnish Centre is very much a bourgeois party notwithstanding its current coalition with the left.

But is the north of Finland particularly "bourgeois" socio-culturally?

I thought Centre party dominated more the central rural parts while Lapland is strongly Social Democrat and while not exactly same it seems rural areas where you can still farm lean right while rural areas that are mostly forests and too far north to farm go for S.  Be interesting in both Canada, Norway, Finland, and Sweden to see map of voting patterns compared to arable land as could be wrong but kind of have hunch things swing left once you get above point where it is suitable for farming.  Just a guess, but an educated one.

In Finland, the Centre Party is the leading party in all sorts of rural areas. In 2019, the Social Democrats were only the fourth biggest party in Lapland, and the fifth biggest party in the Oulu electoral district (the second-northernmost district): https://vaalit.yle.fi/ev2019/en/regions/13 (Lapland), https://vaalit.yle.fi/ev2019/en/regions/12 (Oulu)

BTW, I used the word "bourgeois" in the sense that it is used in Finnish (and I think in Swedish, too) politics where it means generally "non-leftist" (but usually excluding right-wing populists and the far-right).

[Helsinkian]

It is clear that the Liberals were very tormented. The question that will be asked is whether it is time for a name change in the Liberals. because it is not liberal politics that will be pursued. It is Jimmie Åkesson who holds the leash.

I see that the new government has started laying out its far-right, ultra-conservative, über-reactionary policies:

https://twitter.com/johanknorberg/status/1580833474147102720

[Helsinkian]

Compare the AfD in Germany to the Sweden Democrats. Both parties have seen massive growth since 2010 and initially remained behind a electoral cordon. However, the zero-sum nature of Block politics meant that the collective agreement for one block to support the other via confidence and ignore the Sweden Democrats could not last. It started at the the local level but after 2018 the Blocks realigned so that the Sweden Democrats ended up inside the Blue Block. Meanwhile, in Germany, the AfD remains a pariah at all levels of government. The Union and FDP have better prospects individually maintaining the cordon rather then making a  Block with them, and so the AfD is ostracized.

Germany also has a tradition of the "Grosse Koalition", which Sweden lacks. Practically no one in Sweden was even considering the possibility of an S and M coalition.

[Helsinkian]

If your only evidence for SD's nazism involves going back to people who left the party decades ago or died decades ago, at some point you start to sound like the people who say that the US Democrats are a racist party because of Robert Byrd's KKK membership or because of Andrew Jackson's racist views.

If you acknowledge that the US Democrats have changed, why do you refuse to believe that the Sweden Democrats can change?