Sweden election 2022

[DL]

I see the Social Democrats have a new leader and that Lofven has resigned. Seems like as good a time as any to have a thread on Swedish politics with an eye to general elections next year

[mileslunn]

M + KD + SD could win a majority although hard to say.  I believe C and L prefer coalition with M + KD but unwilling to support a government that relies on SD so may vote to continue current coalition.  Left wing one of S + MP + V seems extremely unlikely.

[DL]

I thought that all parties agreed never to form any coalition with the neo-Nazis in SD?

[mileslunn]

I thought that all parties agreed never to form any coalition with the neo-Nazis in SD?

Could be wrong, but I believe M and KD okay with it, but C and L are not.  Denmark, Norway, and Finland have had governments that relied on votes from far right (Progress Party in Norway, DPP in Denmark, and Finns Party in Finland) but probably would be a minority with SD propping them up but not actually part of coaltiion.

Germany, Netherlands, and Belgium however do have cordon sanitaires not to work with far right but Austria, Spain, and Italy do not so its mixed.  Be interesting in upcoming Portuguese election if right willing to work with far right Chega which is new. 

[Astatine]

M + KD + SD could win a majority although hard to say.  I believe C and L prefer coalition with M + KD but unwilling to support a government that relies on SD so may vote to continue current coalition.  Left wing one of S + MP + V seems extremely unlikely.

L has already switched sides afaik since the governmental crisis in Summer, when they were open to join a M+KD+L government supported by SD. C is way more reluctant.

[lilTommy]

Polling in October is still favouring a S+MP+V government

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2022_Swedish_general_election

Only one poll has the right coalition leading, and by 1.2%... but polls being polls.

The whole reason for Lofven stepping down was to help improve the standing of the SocialDemocrats, does anyone here feel that Magdalena Andersson as leader/PM will help with that?

[DL]

I thought that all parties agreed never to form any coalition with the neo-Nazis in SD?

Could be wrong, but I believe M and KD okay with it, but C and L are not.  Denmark, Norway, and Finland have had governments that relied on votes from far right (Progress Party in Norway, DPP in Denmark, and Finns Party in Finland) but probably would be a minority with SD propping them up but not actually part of coaltiion.

Germany, Netherlands, and Belgium however do have cordon sanitaires not to work with far right but Austria, Spain, and Italy do not so its mixed.  Be interesting in upcoming Portuguese election if right willing to work with far right Chega which is new.  

Not all extreme right parties have the same baggage or histories. The Progress Parties in Norway and Denmark have their roots in populist anti-taxation/libertarian movements dating back to the 70s and 80s...they then later adopted some standard issue anti-immigrant xenophobia. The Norwegian Progress Party most definitely does NOT see itself as the heir to Vidkun Quisling's party of Nazi collaborators.

In contrast the Sweden Democrats have much more of a history with people who literally supported Hitler and wished Germany had won world war 2! They have paramilitary goons affiliated with them who wear swastikas and which are blatantly anti-Semitic - so its a whole different kettle of fish.  

[mileslunn]

I thought that all parties agreed never to form any coalition with the neo-Nazis in SD?

Could be wrong, but I believe M and KD okay with it, but C and L are not.  Denmark, Norway, and Finland have had governments that relied on votes from far right (Progress Party in Norway, DPP in Denmark, and Finns Party in Finland) but probably would be a minority with SD propping them up but not actually part of coaltiion.

Germany, Netherlands, and Belgium however do have cordon sanitaires not to work with far right but Austria, Spain, and Italy do not so its mixed.  Be interesting in upcoming Portuguese election if right willing to work with far right Chega which is new.  

Not all extreme right parties have the same baggage or histories. The Progress Parties in Norway and Denmark have their roots in populist anti-taxation/libertarian movements dating back to the 70s and 80s...they then later adopted some standard issue anti-immigrant xenophobia. The Norwegian Progress Party most definitely does NOT see itself as the heir to Vidkun Quisling's party of Nazi collaborators.

In contrast the Sweden Democrats have much more of a history with people who literally supported Hitler and wished Germany had won world war 2! They have paramilitary goons affiliated with them who wear swastikas and which are blatantly anti-Semitic - so its a whole different kettle of fish.  

It wouldn't be a coalition, would be a minority propped up by them, but yeah still could look bad as Sweden Democrats definitely are one of the more extreme ones.

I don't think either Blue or Red alliance is likely to get a majority thus will be some type of agreement either M + KD - propped up by SD but not part of coalition or S + MP propped up by C + L + V.

[Diouf]

An eventful day in Sweden.

Magdalena Andersson elected Sweden's first female PM. 117 votes for confidence (Social Democrats, Greens + a ex-Left MP) + 58 abstaining (Centre + Left) = 175 votes allowing her to become PM. 174 votes for no confidence (Moderates, Sweden Democrats, Christian Democrats and Liberals).

The government loses the budget vote. The Moderate/Christian Democrat/Sweden Democrat got votes from their three parties which equals 154 votes. The government's budget was only supported by the Social Democrats, Greens and Left party = 143 votes. The Centre Party voted for its own budget, saying the government's proposed budget would be too radical a left swing. The Liberals also voted for its own budget proposal. The budget proposal with the most votes get passed, so the M/KD/SD budget is now approved.

The Green Party leaves the government. They say they don't want to administrate the country on a right-wing budget. That budget e.g. lowers the fuel duties to combat rising prices. The Greens is fiercely opposed to that.

So now there will be a new formation, likely ending up in a Social Democrat minority government.

[mileslunn]

I believe Andersson is more left wing so no surprise Liberals would ditch party as unlike in North America, I believe Swedish Liberals are more your classical liberal type as right wing on economics, left wing on social issues.  Any link that gives details of budget from government and opposition?  Be curious on that.

[Diouf]

I believe Andersson is more left wing so no surprise Liberals would ditch party as unlike in North America, I believe Swedish Liberals are more your classical liberal type as right wing on economics, left wing on social issues.  Any link that gives details of budget from government and opposition?  Be curious on that.

The differences are:
The government's budget wants to introduce a so-called "family week", where a parent to a child aged 4-16 gets 3 days off a year to 80% of their salary level. It wants to spend more money on woods. The government wants to lower taxes for people on unemployment benefits and sick benefits. It also wants to spend more money on creating "introductionary job" where mostly foreigners without skills can be hired in a subsidized way, so the employer doesn't have to pay most of the salary.

The opposition's budget has higher tax cuts for low and median incomes + pensioners. Reduced duties on fuel and diesel. More money for higher police salaries, more surveillance cameras and more police. It wants refugee policy to only follow the minimum demands necessary by EU law. It wants to raise the salary level needed for foreign labour to get a work permit.

Some links here:
https://www.svt.se/nyheter/inrikes/svt-erfar-m-kd-och-sd-eniga-om-gemsamt-motforslag
https://www.aftonbladet.se/minekonomi/a/66Vo5e/hogerbudgeten-s-kan-tvingas-regera-pa--sa-paverkas-du

[Diouf]

A DENK-like party is starting to get a bit of attention in a country, which should be fertile ground for such a party. The party is called Nuans (Nuance) and is led by Mikail Yüksel. He was formerly in the Centre Party and looked set to enter parliament in 2018, but was thrown out of the party shortly before the election due to his close links to the Turkish Grey Wolves organization.
He founded the party three years ago, but it has only just started to receive a bit of attention. The party this year helped arrange demonstrations against the Swedish law for forcible removals, which is said to be used by some in the social service to kidnap and assimilate Muslim children.
This caused a strong rebuke by Liberal MP, Gulan Avci, in an article last month: https://www.expressen.se/debatt/darfor-bor-vi-alla--oroas-av-partiet-nyans/
Today the party was joined by Social Democrat councillor Maher Dabbour from Malmø + twenty party members around him.

The party hasn't shown up in any polls yet, so it might just be a short-lived bit of attention, but one worth tracking.

[The Lord Marbury]

It's a little over a month left until the election and things appear to be heating up slowly but surely as the summer holidays are drawing to a close. The Moderates and Social Democrats have both just presented their main campaign posters ahead of the election.

The Moderates are going with the slogan "Nu får vi ordning på Sverige" (rough translation: "Let's get Sweden sorted out") and are emphasizing the agreements between the four parties on the right and the disagreements between the Red-Greens and the Centre Party in their posters. The posters have statements such as "In agreement that nuclear power delivers cheaper and greener electricity", followed by a large blue exclamation point supposedly to highlight that M, KD, SD and L are all agreed. Different posters have the same statement or different ones such as "In agreement on strict rules on immigration to manage the integration", followed by a large red question mark, surrounded by the letters S, C, V and MP to highlight those parties disagreements.

https://i.imgur.com/EQnSPVB.png

I'm really not sure if this will be a particularly successful campaign at attracting swing voters, but then again I'm not the target audience.

As expected the Social Democrats are placing Magdalena Andersson front and centre in the campaign due to her popularity, and they're clearly hoping that the campaign will become a bit of a presidential election where the choice is between her or Ulf Kristersson's leadership.

They're using the slogan "Vårt Sverige kan bättre"/"Tillsammans kan vi göra vårt Sverige bättre" ("Our Sweden can do better"/"Together we can make our Sweden better") which they've been using since the spring. The main political focus of the posters are increased pensions ("A pension you live on. Respect for those who have worked"), schools ("The school should be there for the children, not the owners") and tough on crime ("We're increasing sentences and recruiting more police officers").

https://i.imgur.com/cGzfuqI.png

[Oryxslayer]

Here's Wikipedia's list/average of polls presently as we approach the actual election. If we treat the 4 aligned Right parties as one block, and their opposition as another - even though it isn't as formally linked - it is effectively a tied race. The issue is that MP/The Greens are below the threshold and if they don't make it in then its GG, Conservative majority barring any surprises. Maybe therefore S shouldn't be running such a personalistic campaign, since a presidential-style contest will lead to a percentage of voters within each camp migrating to the "presidential" candidates.

[bigic]

Here's Wikipedia's list/average of polls presently as we approach the actual election. If we treat the 4 aligned Right parties as one block, and their opposition as another - even though it isn't as formally linked - it is effectively a tied race. The issue is that MP/The Greens are below the threshold and if they don't make it in then its GG, Conservative majority barring any surprises. Maybe therefore S shouldn't be running such a personalistic campaign, since a presidential-style contest will lead to a percentage of voters within each camp migrating to the "presidential" candidates.

There are enough voters in both camps who would strategically vote for a minor party for this to not happen.

[ingemann]

A DENK-like party is starting to get a bit of attention in a country, which should be fertile ground for such a party. The party is called Nuans (Nuance) and is led by Mikail Yüksel. He was formerly in the Centre Party and looked set to enter parliament in 2018, but was thrown out of the party shortly before the election due to his close links to the Turkish Grey Wolves organization.
He founded the party three years ago, but it has only just started to receive a bit of attention. The party this year helped arrange demonstrations against the Swedish law for forcible removals, which is said to be used by some in the social service to kidnap and assimilate Muslim children.
This caused a strong rebuke by Liberal MP, Gulan Avci, in an article last month: https://www.expressen.se/debatt/darfor-bor-vi-alla--oroas-av-partiet-nyans/
Today the party was joined by Social Democrat councillor Maher Dabbour from Malmø + twenty party members around him.

The party hasn't shown up in any polls yet, so it might just be a short-lived bit of attention, but one worth tracking.

I don’t think the party has a chance at all, the high Swedish election threshold, mixed with the guy’s history and the relative small size of the Turkish diaspora in Sweden, make it unlikely for him to make it. Even if they succeed to reach out to other Muslim groups I expect them to get between 0,3-1% of the vote with my guess being they get 0,5%, if they fail to reach out to non-Turks I expect them to get 0,1 of the vote.

Honestly I mainly see this as benefit for the old Swedish parties, who get their party cleaned up by these people coming out into the open and leaving. When Nyans crash and burn, it will be clear to the old parties that these people didn’t deliver any votes to them and these people political career will be over.

[ingemann]

BTW what will Ygeman suggestion to put a 50% cap on non-Nordic citizen in “vulnerable areas” have on the election?

https://de.topnews.media/2022/08/01/minister-calls-for-50-percent-cap-on-non-nordic-citizens-in-swedens-vulnerable-areas/

[The Lord Marbury]

Here's Wikipedia's list/average of polls presently as we approach the actual election. If we treat the 4 aligned Right parties as one block, and their opposition as another - even though it isn't as formally linked - it is effectively a tied race. The issue is that MP/The Greens are below the threshold and if they don't make it in then its GG, Conservative majority barring any surprises. Maybe therefore S shouldn't be running such a personalistic campaign, since a presidential-style contest will lead to a percentage of voters within each camp migrating to the "presidential" candidates.

Perhaps. But the Social Democrats (along with C, if you count them as part of the same side) is the party with the best shot at winning over swing voters who might otherwise vote L or M. And given how close the polls are it'd be mad not to use Andersson's relative popularity even among some centre-right voters in an attempt to win them over. The Greens will probably be dragged over the line by centre-left voters voting strategically either way.

One thing that is somewhat interesting to note is that there's no mention of climate change on any Social Democratic posters or in the TV ad released today. Unlike the ad they released a few months ago, where it at least got a mention. I wonder if that could be because they want leave that issue to the Greens and not risk competing too much for the same voters in order to help them over the line.

BTW what will Ygeman suggestion to put a 50% cap on non-Nordic citizen in “vulnerable areas” have on the election?

https://de.topnews.media/2022/08/01/minister-calls-for-50-percent-cap-on-non-nordic-citizens-in-swedens-vulnerable-areas/

It'll further help the Social Democrats in their attempt to triangulate and neutralize rightwing attacks on immigration, integration and law and order. It could potentially move some voters from Social Democrats to the Greens or Left too, but they wouldn't be too fussed about that. But it's apparent that it's not something the Social Democrats are going place a lot of emphasis on, Ygeman has already partially walked the statement back by saying that it's something he's "open to discussing" but not something he's actually proposing at the moment.

[ingemann]

BTW what will Ygeman suggestion to put a 50% cap on non-Nordic citizen in “vulnerable areas” have on the election?

https://de.topnews.media/2022/08/01/minister-calls-for-50-percent-cap-on-non-nordic-citizens-in-swedens-vulnerable-areas/

It'll further help the Social Democrats in their attempt to triangulate and neutralize rightwing attacks on immigration, integration and law and order. It could potentially move some voters from Social Democrats to the Greens or Left too, but they wouldn't be too fussed about that. But it's apparent that it's not something the Social Democrats are going place a lot of emphasis on, Ygeman has already partially walked the statement back by saying that it's something he's "open to discussing" but not something he's actually proposing at the moment.

sigh

So he ended up going with the worst way to do this. This will not bring anyone back and it will alienate some of their voters. If you as Social Democrat bring up this kind of suggestion, it need to be thought through and you need be willing to fight for it.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

How appropriate that this thread gets revived the same day I bought my tickets back to Stocky for the campaign

To add on to what has already been said thus far:

Here are some graphs about confidence in the party's leaders. Dark blue is "a lot of confidence", dark red is "very little confidence" with the degree in between.

Andersson leads the pack well beyond her party's polling numbers, 52% "a lot/moderate confidence" - 32% "no/little confidence"
Kristersson not that far behind on approvals with 44% "a lot/moderate confidence, but very strong opposition to him at 50% "no/little confidence"

The only party leader other than Andersson that doesn't have "little/no confidence" above 50% is the new leader of the Liberals, Johan Pehrson, due to the disproportionate "neutral" at 29% and "no opinion/don't know" at 6%

Interestingly, Nooshi Dadgostar's confidence numbers have plummeted since February. I can imagine this might be because of V's opposition to NATO but I can't remember her saying anything controversial on the subject, but perhaps I missed something?

Otherwise everyone else seems to have basically held their ground more or less since the autumn of 2021.





Interestingly, Sweden has a big gender divide between S+V+Mp+C on one hand and the conservative bloc on the other. I can't think of another continental European country that has such a similar divide off the top of my head.

On the topic of ads, the Social Democrats put out an election film in the spring and it's probably the best election film I've seen in recent years:

The text is:

Announcer: "On lane 3, there we have Magdalena Andersson from Uppsala"

Andersson: "Sweden was safe. I was a swimmer. It taught me to compete and to do what is necessary. We pushed each other. We made each other better.

Sweden is a small country, but sometimes it can be big. (videos of a classroom, Olaf Palme, flags, workers in factories)

For me it became obvious: we are stronger when we stick together.

But this is not obvious for everything: venture capitalists siphon money out of the welfare system, ruthless criminality, the climate threat (pictures of business people, a gun, police, a forest fire)

We can do better!

We will take back control over welfare, go to the bottom against segregation, break the gangs, build up our national defense, and speed up the climate transition to support jobs across our entire country (pictures of ICU nurses, ambulances, apartment buildings, policeman hugging a girl, a fighter jet, workers building a wind mill, a Swedish flag)

(Back to Andersson sitting by a pool) It will require more, from both you and from me. Together we can make our Sweden better"

My trip to Sweden will be a "working vacation" for the week and a half in the run up to the election, where I work the standard 9-5 and then help out in the evenings and weekends (gotta fit some clubbing in there as well), but now I am helping some local candidates/party branches in the northern suburbs of Stockholm with English-language comms, especially those targeting students and young people. Obviously Swedes speak practically impeccable English, but oftentimes translations of written materials don't quite hit the mark with pacing and tone. But it's really great to see what individual candidates are emphasizing and the specific issues in each municipality.

[The Lord Marbury]

https://www.expressen.se/nyheter/fortroendet-for-regeringen-dalar-tydlig-trend/

Expressen and Sifo published the latest approval ratings for the government today. Government approval sits at 41%, down 2 since the last poll in July which means it's pretty much level with the situation before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which saw the government's approval briefly jump up to 53%.

They also published the latest party leader approvals, where Magdalena Andersson maintains her massive lead.

Magdalena Andersson (S): 59% (+1) [NET: +27]
Ulf Kristersson (M): 33% (-2) [NET: -11]
Jimmie Åkesson (SD): 29% (+1) [NET: -27]
Ebba Busch (KD): 27% (+1) [NET: -27]
Annie Lööf (C): 27% (+1) [NET: -29]
Johan Pehrson (L): 24% (+3) [NET: -3]
Nooshi Dadgostar (V): 22% (-) [NET: -25]
Per Bolund (MP): 10% (+1) [NET: -44]
Märta Stenevi (MP): 8% (-1) [NET: -51]

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Are the Swedish democrats still too toxic to be included in any possible goverment ?

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Are the Swedish democrats still too toxic to be included in any possible goverment ?

I mean Åkesson's approvals aren't all that bad.

[Mike88]

Are the Swedish democrats still too toxic to be included in any possible goverment ?

Not really, I believe. The Moderates, Liberals and Christian Democrats have a "collaboration agreement" with SD and they have presented some conjoint policies. Not sure if they will be part of a coalition government, but SD will support a proposed Moderate PM and, unlike 2018, M-L-KD will accept that support.

[S019]

Are the Swedish democrats still too toxic to be included in any possible goverment ?

Not really, I believe. The Moderates, Liberals and Christian Democrats have a "collaboration agreement" with SD and they have presented some conjoint policies. Not sure if they will be part of a coalition government, but SD will support a proposed Moderate PM and, unlike 2018, M-L-KD will accept that support.

Yeah, M-L-KD-SD are basically the right bloc now, M and KD had already been on board with an SD backed government and then around a year ago, the Liberals left the current centre-left government and said they’d be okay with a government supported by the Swedish Democrats.