Sweden election 2022

[DL]

Is there any realistic possibility that anyone other than the Social Democrats will lead the next government in Sweden? Right now S+V+MP has a big lead over M+KD+C+L and with the SDs surging and mainly taking votes from the more respectable right of centre parties doesnt that make it impossible for the so-called "blue block" to forma  government? Especially since i think I read that C (and maybe L) refuse to be part of any government that depends on SD for support.

You have the math wrong. 2018 is 4 years ago. C is no longer effectively part of the Blue Bloc. The Blues have accepted SD as one of their own, though it would be a confidence partner with significant influence over any potential government and not a leader. SD and C (as well as other Social Democratic allies) are mutually incompatible. C made this clearer earlier in the month. So the math now is S+MP+V+C vs M+KD+L+SD.

And that math means the blocks are effectively tied. Pick your poll and one block won't be leading by more than 2%, often times less than 1%.

So in other words a vote for the Liberals or the Moderaterna is now effectively a vote for the neo-Nazis in the SD.

[Oryxslayer]

Is there any realistic possibility that anyone other than the Social Democrats will lead the next government in Sweden? Right now S+V+MP has a big lead over M+KD+C+L and with the SDs surging and mainly taking votes from the more respectable right of centre parties doesnt that make it impossible for the so-called "blue block" to forma  government? Especially since i think I read that C (and maybe L) refuse to be part of any government that depends on SD for support.

You have the math wrong. 2018 is 4 years ago. C is no longer effectively part of the Blue Bloc. The Blues have accepted SD as one of their own, though it would be a confidence partner with significant influence over any potential government and not a leader. SD and C (as well as other Social Democratic allies) are mutually incompatible. C made this clearer earlier in the month. So the math now is S+MP+V+C vs M+KD+L+SD.

And that math means the blocks are effectively tied. Pick your poll and one block won't be leading by more than 2%, often times less than 1%.

So in other words a vote for the Liberals or the Moderaterna is now effectively a vote for the neo-Nazis in the SD.

Congats, you now know why things are awful. Though M and KD weren't exactly to different from SD the last four years, it was the Liberals who had to jump through a few hoops.

[The Lord Marbury]

The Social Democrats are just openly trolling the Moderates at this point. Apparently they've requested that SVT and TV4 replace Kristersson with Åkesson in the scheduled one-on-one debates with Magdalena Andersson since SD have surpassed M in several recent polls.

Of course the requests were turned down, but it still made some headlines. Not a bad way to remind wavering voters who don't like SD of how much influence the party will have if the blue bloc gets a majority.

[Mike88]

Why the sudden rise of SD and the fall of the Moderates in the polls? Is this because of the donations scandal, or just horrible campaigning by the Moderates?

In 2018, some polls, two weeks before the election, even put SD in the lead, but in the end they ended in third.

[kaoras]

I was looking at past elections and S always seem to overperform their polls. With SD rise is likely that this happens again, right?

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Why the sudden rise of SD and the fall of the Moderates in the polls? Is this because of the donations scandal, or just horrible campaigning by the Moderates?

My own theory is that it has to do with unemployment insurance and health insurance. The recent decline in the Moderates numbers in favour of the Sweden Democrats started at the same time as the party announced their plans to cut down on unemployment benefits and sick leave payments. Those cuts are not popular with working-class and middle-class voters and the Sweden Democrats who have a more centrist economic policy has pledged to stop any cuts when they negotiate budgets with the Moderates.

Another factor is also that some Moderate voters are lending their votes to the Liberals in order to assure they get past the 4% line and make it into parliament.

Thirdly, earlier this year the political issues centred a lot around defence and Russia due to the war. This naturally strengthened the Moderates, while the Sweden Democrats (who until just a few months ago opposed NATO membership and like many other far-right European parties have had ties to Russia) suffered. So I also see it as a return to normalcy in a way, as the political discussion returns to be about, economics, crime, and immigration.

Though as you point out, four years ago several polls also predicted that the Sweden Democrats would be bigger than the Moderates, but it never materialised. I guess we'll have to wait and see how it turns out this time around.

I was looking at past elections and S always seem to overperform their polls. With SD rise is likely that this happens again, right?

Yes, it might. Though, if you look at recent elections, while the Social Democrats have a tendency to over-preform on election day compared to polls, it's usually not the centre-right parties but other centre-left parties that under-preform, so in the end it might not help them retain power, they'll just gobble up seats from their political partners.

How much of an issue has the crime surge been?

It's one of the major points of discussion in the election campaign. I think one poll showed law and order as the most important issue for voters and Magdalena Andersson has tried to cultivate an image as tough on crime, although she is under attack from the opposition who says that since the Social Democrats haven't been able to do anything about crime for 8 years it's hard to believe they'll be successful this time around.

If the blue bloc win this election I think crime and the energy crisis are the two major factors behind it. 

Care to elaborate a bit on the energy crisis? Is is any different from the rest of the continent? Something unique I have seen recently is that Sweden started up Gas plants again to deal with the high demand. This seems like an ideal point of attack by the nuclear-devoted Conservative Alliance, since specifically burning Russian Gas in an emergency caused by Russia while also attempting to join NATO seem contradictory.

Sorry for a late reply, I haven't been on here for the past few days.

Energy prices in Sweden is actually even now a lot lower than in the rest of Europe. However, Sweden has been very accustomed to very cheap electricity, so a lot of people are still hit hard by the rise in prices. Coupled with inflation and the general increase to cost of living the new prices are taking a hard toll on families' finances. When I talk to my family and friends a lot of them are extremely worried about how they'll afford to pay electricity and heating bills this coming winter and a lot of industry in the south of Sweden has also been complaining that they'll have a hard time staying competitive if something is not done about the price. 

The centre-right is attacking the government because several closers of nuclear power plants. The Left party on the other hand is also attacking the government, but because of energy export. Sweden exports electricity to its European neighbours and they want to reduce the exports in order to reduce prices in Sweden.

The government has tried to defend itself by pointing out that things are actually worse in the rest of Europe and blaming the situation with Russia, calling the price hike, "Putin prices". It's obviously not a very good defence, because voters never know or care about stuff outside of their country's borders (see Brits blaming the global financial crisis of 2008 on Gordon Brown) and because people who have to sell their house cause they cannot afford heating don't feel helped by "look, it could be much worse if you lived in Germany".

It's not the governments only defence though, they've also tried to counter attack by pointing out that a lot of wind turbines are stopped by local centre-right city councils and by proposing their own solutions to lower prices, but it hasn't, as far as I've seen, been a successful strategy.

[Oryxslayer]

New question: are there any preparations being made for a 'deadlocked' government? Basically, all the polls say that one block or the other will have a majority with the margin between them in seats likely measurable on one hand. I'm reminded of the reaction to the surprise near-tied 2018 results, but that time there was potential negotiations to get C+L to either agree to SD support or a S government. Unless someone decides to consistently break the blocks (L?) Sweden will seemingly be back to the pre-election parliamentary gridlock and that situation was barely and unhappily maintained to prevent an early election right before the regular one.

[DL]

it is interesting how Sweden is now following Norway in this new configuration whereby the Centre/Sentre party is part of the red bloc rather than the blue bloc. Any explanation for this? What parties in Finland and Denmark would be equivalent to the Centre party?   

[palandio]

it is interesting how Sweden is now following Norway in this new configuration whereby the Centre/Sentre party is part of the red bloc rather than the blue bloc. Any explanation for this? What parties in Finland and Denmark would be equivalent to the Centre party?   

Equivalent to the Swedish or to the Norwegian Centre Party?

Because as far as I understand the Swedish Centre Party has shifted towards the socially left, fiscally right (or "woke neo-liberal") quadrant in recent years, the Norwegian Centre Party on the other hand not at all.

From a historical point of view the Swedish, the Norwegian and the Finnish Centre Party and the Icelandic Progressive Party are all "Agrarian" parties. The Danish party that comes closest (historically) are actually the Liberals (Venstre).

The Swedish Centre Party in its current outlook is more comparable to the Social Liberals (Radikale Venstre) in Denmark or to D66 in the Netherlands.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Why weren't the swedish liberal party able to occupy that political space ?

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

New question: are there any preparations being made for a 'deadlocked' government? Basically, all the polls say that one block or the other will have a majority with the margin between them in seats likely measurable on one hand. I'm reminded of the reaction to the surprise near-tied 2018 results, but that time there was potential negotiations to get C+L to either agree to SD support or a S government. Unless someone decides to consistently break the blocks (L?) Sweden will seemingly be back to the pre-election parliamentary gridlock and that situation was barely and unhappily maintained to prevent an early election right before the regular one.

No, no plans at all. S has said they are open to negotiation with any party other than SD, and some S senior members have said they could work with M to form a stable government and get budgets and policies on things like national defence and energy passed together, but obviously this is going to be quite difficult since a big reason for M's existence is that it can challenge S. It would also likely be destructive for both parties in that their voters would probably flee to other parties out of frustration.

Annie Lööf is still doing her "S&M GroKo" or "Alliansen + S extra large GroKo" schtick from 2018 but that's also extremely unlikely.

Basically I expect another 4 years of chaos and everyone being miserable just like the last 8.

[palandio]

Why weren't the swedish liberal party able to occupy that political space ?

I'm not an expert in Swedish politics, so take the following with a grain of salt.

The Liberals have always been the most pro-Western and pro-NATO party in Sweden and a significant part of their leadership, membership and voter based has been rather security-oriented, sometimes even by profession. Anyways during the 2000s as far as I know the dominant wing of the party cultivated a (by Swedish standards) law and order image which made the party less attractive to the most socially liberal potential members and voters.

The Centre Party on the other hand was a party that had a slowly shrinking agrarian base and was looking for new issues. During the 2000s Maud Olofsson moved the party into the aforementioned direction and a self-reinforcing process started in which newly attracted members and voters moved the party further into that direction.

That's how I would explain it. Anyone please correct me if I'm wrong (even partially).

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Ipsos releases a SHOCK POLL of Stockholm City for the municipal election, showing a major shift towards the left with an outright S+V+Mp majority at 51%

S - 29% (+7 compared to 2018)
M - 17% (-4)
V - 15% (+2)
SD - 9% (+1)
L - 9% (-1)
Mp - 8% (-)
C - 7% (-1)
KD - 4% (-1)
F! - 2% (-1)

Looking at coalitions:
S+V+Mp = 51%
+ F! = 53% for the left as a whole
S+V+Mp + C = 58% for the pro-Andersson bloc (obviously, muni elections are not national elections)
Alliansen = 37%
Dark Blue coalition = 39%
Alliansen + SD = 46% for the political right as a whole

I guess #GlobalTrendsAreReal and while Stockholm City has always been a battleground, this is a pretty hard swing to the left-of-centre parties even without F!

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Also, today was an eventful day in terms of election news:

- Ebba Busch (KD) said in an SVT interview said that she wants to exclude SD and L from government in the event that the centre-right wins. This is very interesting, as SD is clearly demanding positions of power for his party (e.g. chairmanships, committee powers, inclusion in negotiations), and L clearly wants to be in government while also excluding SD. It also seems that despite L's rightward turn and new leadership, they have not yet re-earned the trust they lost with the January Agreement of 2019. It also is interesting because the polling share of M + KD is about equal to SD (SD is surging at M and KD's expense) and if SD is larger than those two combined, they lose a lot of their negotiating power and it will be seen as unreasonable to exclude SD from government and so much influence.

- the Moderates presented their proposal for fast-tracking permits for new nuclear power plants. They want to create one agency who is the sole authority on the topic, as well as create a new rule in the environmental code that cases involving the construction of new nuclear power must be treated with priority.

- a municipal councillor, Saida Hussein Moge, in Gothenburg left Socialdemokraterna to sit as an independent in protest over what she considers is xenophobic and exclusionary rhetoric from the party leadership over the course of the campaign.

- V is trolling S, M, KD, L, and SD by reporting them to the Kammarkollegiet (no idea how to translate this name properly), which is basically the state authority for an extremely broad number of tasks but also includes auditing party finances. Dadgostar demands a full audit of the parties' finances, and proposes new changes to tighten the law regarding transparency of financing.

- Expressen reports that some within S are pushing to exclude Mp from a government after the election and instead form a government with C. It is not clear how widespread this sentiment is in the party leadership, as the article only vaguely alluded to "voices" within the party.

- while much ink has been spilt over the past few weeks about frustration within M directed towards Kristersson, there is also increasing criticism towards economic policy spokesperson (and potential Finance Minister) Elisabeth Svantesson. The criticism is based upon the frustrations that M is lacking a comprehensive economic vision for Sweden, and M is losing the economy question in surveys when the current situation should be a winner for them. Specific criticisms towards Svantesson are her narrow focus on lowering the petrol tax and eliminating the plastic bag tax, and her simple and limited answers in interviews. While previous M campaigns focused on policies such as the employment credit tax to get people back into work, this year the economic policy plank is severely lacking at a time when economic pain is widespread.

[Helsinkian]

One poll (Sentio) shows SD as the largest party -- the first poll to show that since October 2021 (that was also a Sentio poll).

Why does Sentio give much better numbers for SD than other pollsters?

[omar04]

One poll (Sentio) shows SD as the largest party -- the first poll to show that since October 2021 (that was also a Sentio poll).

Why does Sentio give much better numbers for SD than other pollsters?

Sentio is commissioned by a SD friendly newspaper (Nyheter Idag).

https://twitter.com/Nassreddin2002/status/1423277585895620608

https://twitter.com/Nassreddin2002/status/1564659744387874818

[The Lord Marbury]

Apparently Radio Sweden just held an English language debate between the eight parliamentary parties. Unsurprisingly none of the party leaders showed up, but the parties did send some other leading figures such as C, V and KD which sent their economic policy spokespersons. It's available to watch here for those who are interested: https://sverigesradio.se/artikel/radio-sweden-election-debate-live

Oh and former Liberal leader Bengt Westerberg has just come out and said that he's going to vote for the Centre Party in the election. Not particularly surprising considering that he already said that he wouldn't vote L when a snap election looked likely last year.

[omar04]

Apparently Radio Sweden just held an English language debate between the eight parliamentary parties. Unsurprisingly none of the party leaders showed up, but the parties did send some other leading figures such as C, V and KD which sent their economic policy spokespersons. It's available to watch here for those who are interested: https://sverigesradio.se/artikel/radio-sweden-election-debate-live

Oh and former Liberal leader Bengt Westerberg has just come out and said that he's going to vote for the Centre Party in the election. Not particularly surprising considering that he already said that he wouldn't vote L when a snap election looked likely last year.

Why, because of the Liberals being willing to form a government with SD support?

[The Lord Marbury]

Apparently Radio Sweden just held an English language debate between the eight parliamentary parties. Unsurprisingly none of the party leaders showed up, but the parties did send some other leading figures such as C, V and KD which sent their economic policy spokespersons. It's available to watch here for those who are interested: https://sverigesradio.se/artikel/radio-sweden-election-debate-live

Oh and former Liberal leader Bengt Westerberg has just come out and said that he's going to vote for the Centre Party in the election. Not particularly surprising considering that he already said that he wouldn't vote L when a snap election looked likely last year.

Why, because of the Liberals being willing to form a government with SD support?

Yeah pretty much. Westerberg has been very critical of any kind of cooperation with SD and supportive of some kind of grand coalition including both the Social Democrats and the Moderates for several years. He's also known for walking out of a TV studio in protest during SVT's election night coverage in 1991 when he was interviewed along with other centre-right leaders and the leaders of the right-wing populist New Democracy party were about to join them on the couch. So his distaste for the far-right is well documented and this wasn't unexpected.

[Lurker]

it is interesting how Sweden is now following Norway in this new configuration whereby the Centre/Sentre party is part of the red bloc rather than the blue bloc. Any explanation for this? What parties in Finland and Denmark would be equivalent to the Centre party?   

Other than their noticeable policy differences, I would say a main difference is the Norwegian Centre being very willing to cooperate with Labour, clearly seeing that as their preferred option, whereas Annie Lööf would strongly prefer a centre-right government if it were possible (with no sort of influence for Sverigedemokraterna).

[Lurker]

For anyone interested, this is the polling average for August. https://sv.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinionsunders%C3%B6kningar_inf%C3%B6r_riksdagsvalet_i_Sverige_2022

Social Democrats + allies (MP, V, C): 48,48%

Right-Wing opposition (M, SD, KD, L): 50,12%

A lead of 1,6 points, and all parties are now above the 4% treshold. The gap between the two blocs has changed very little since before summer (the right-wing led by 0,5% in June, though the Greens were then still below the treshold).

[ingemann]

it is interesting how Sweden is now following Norway in this new configuration whereby the Centre/Sentre party is part of the red bloc rather than the blue bloc. Any explanation for this? What parties in Finland and Denmark would be equivalent to the Centre party?   

Equivalent to the Swedish or to the Norwegian Centre Party?

Because as far as I understand the Swedish Centre Party has shifted towards the socially left, fiscally right (or "woke neo-liberal") quadrant in recent years, the Norwegian Centre Party on the other hand not at all.

From a historical point of view the Swedish, the Norwegian and the Finnish Centre Party and the Icelandic Progressive Party are all "Agrarian" parties. The Danish party that comes closest (historically) are actually the Liberals (Venstre).

The Swedish Centre Party in its current outlook is more comparable to the Social Liberals (Radikale Venstre) in Denmark or to D66 in the Netherlands.

It's more complex than that, both the Danish liberal and social liberals were agrarian parties but represented two different groups.

The liberals represented mid-size farmers (the farming middle class), while the social liberal represented the small farmers (the farming working class). but because Denmark is warmer and have better soil, the small farmers the social liberals represented compare better to the traditional farmers in the other Nordic countries.

[Aurelius]

- Ebba Busch (KD) said in an SVT interview said that she wants to exclude SD and L from government in the event that the centre-right wins. This is very interesting, as SD is clearly demanding positions of power for his party (e.g. chairmanships, committee powers, inclusion in negotiations), and L clearly wants to be in government while also excluding SD. It also seems that despite L's rightward turn and new leadership, they have not yet re-earned the trust they lost with the January Agreement of 2019. It also is interesting because the polling share of M + KD is about equal to SD (SD is surging at M and KD's expense) and if SD is larger than those two combined, they lose a lot of their negotiating power and it will be seen as unreasonable to exclude SD from government and so much influence.

A right-wing government excluding L and SD is just KD and M, who together are only polling at only 25%. Even if you add C they're only at 33%. And KD is one of the smallest parties. Why does the junior partner in any potential coalition think it's in any position to dictate terms to the major parties?

[palandio]

it is interesting how Sweden is now following Norway in this new configuration whereby the Centre/Sentre party is part of the red bloc rather than the blue bloc. Any explanation for this? What parties in Finland and Denmark would be equivalent to the Centre party?   

Equivalent to the Swedish or to the Norwegian Centre Party?

Because as far as I understand the Swedish Centre Party has shifted towards the socially left, fiscally right (or "woke neo-liberal") quadrant in recent years, the Norwegian Centre Party on the other hand not at all.

From a historical point of view the Swedish, the Norwegian and the Finnish Centre Party and the Icelandic Progressive Party are all "Agrarian" parties. The Danish party that comes closest (historically) are actually the Liberals (Venstre).

The Swedish Centre Party in its current outlook is more comparable to the Social Liberals (Radikale Venstre) in Denmark or to D66 in the Netherlands.

It's more complex than that, both the Danish liberal and social liberals were agrarian parties but represented two different groups.

The liberals represented mid-size farmers (the farming middle class), while the social liberal represented the small farmers (the farming working class). but because Denmark is warmer and have better soil, the small farmers the social liberals represented compare better to the traditional farmers in the other Nordic countries.

Thank you for the correction.

Would it be right to say though that the social liberals lost their agrarian orientation earlier than the liberals?

[ingemann]

it is interesting how Sweden is now following Norway in this new configuration whereby the Centre/Sentre party is part of the red bloc rather than the blue bloc. Any explanation for this? What parties in Finland and Denmark would be equivalent to the Centre party?   

Equivalent to the Swedish or to the Norwegian Centre Party?

Because as far as I understand the Swedish Centre Party has shifted towards the socially left, fiscally right (or "woke neo-liberal") quadrant in recent years, the Norwegian Centre Party on the other hand not at all.

From a historical point of view the Swedish, the Norwegian and the Finnish Centre Party and the Icelandic Progressive Party are all "Agrarian" parties. The Danish party that comes closest (historically) are actually the Liberals (Venstre).

The Swedish Centre Party in its current outlook is more comparable to the Social Liberals (Radikale Venstre) in Denmark or to D66 in the Netherlands.

It's more complex than that, both the Danish liberal and social liberals were agrarian parties but represented two different groups.

The liberals represented mid-size farmers (the farming middle class), while the social liberal represented the small farmers (the farming working class). but because Denmark is warmer and have better soil, the small farmers the social liberals represented compare better to the traditional farmers in the other Nordic countries.

Thank you for the correction.

Would it be right to say though that the social liberals lost their agrarian orientation earlier than the liberals?

Yes, the class of farmers who supported them collapsed in the 60ties, thanks to new laws which made it easier to buy them out and rising wages and mass employment in the cities. A few of them were still around in 90ties but growing old, but today they don't exist anymore. But they were still a major factor in the party until at least 2000, thanks to their children. I would say it was only after 2001 election that their heritage became increasingly irrelevant.

As for the liberals while farmers are a small group today, they're still important in that party, thanks to a mix of social structures, their money, their children, and people working in connected businesses.