Sweden election 2022
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Author Topic: Sweden election 2022  (Read 31672 times)
njwes
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« Reply #300 on: September 14, 2022, 11:29:41 AM »

Blue Block at the last moment has now a 2-seat lead even though the margin is 0.7% in their favor. This is contrasted with the 0.9% gap and 1 seat lead from before the mail votes, so geography of their vote got better.

Do you happen to know which parties gained and lost a seat?
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Clarko95 📚💰📈
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« Reply #301 on: September 14, 2022, 11:41:58 AM »
« Edited: September 14, 2022, 11:45:36 AM by Clarko95 📚💰📈 »

Well congratulations to the Kristersson coalition on their victory.

Now we proceed to the government formation process. And i wish them best of luck on actually governing and delivering on their promises through 2026
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Clarko95 📚💰📈
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« Reply #302 on: September 14, 2022, 11:48:59 AM »

Andersson calls press conference, almost certainly conceding and announcing her resignation as PM
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Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese
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« Reply #303 on: September 14, 2022, 11:55:10 AM »

How likely is it that C switches sides under a new leader? This 1-seat majority depending on both left-Liberals and possible future ex-SD MPs is obviously not going to last very long.

I dare say switching back to the blue block is out of the question. Not only is a majority of the party membership genuinely against any form of cooperation with the Sweden Democrats, the voters who actually voted for the party this time strongly oppose the centre-right in its current form and want a government led by the Social Democrats.

By switching back to supporting the right they would alienate the people who support them with-out necessarily making any gains with the rural traditional vote. If your farmer wife leaves you because you had an affair with a young progressive anti-racist city girl, you throwing a glass of water in the face of the city girl won't make your wife take you back, it'll just mean the city girl leaves you as well.

That being said, I think we might see some radical changes in the party. As a member of the party, I think we need to ditch or reform some of our more unpopular policies (no one outside a very niche group of Ayn Rand fanboys likes our position on for profit schools and rent-control) that alienates both centre-left voters but also centre-right voters on the countryside.

We also need a stronger focus on rural issues, it's not enough to just talk about that half-panicked during an election campaign. What we did well from 2014 to 2018 was to actually talk about issues affecting rural communities and that showed in the election results.

Finally we need to find a reason for our existence besides opposing the Sweden Democrats and making Left Party politicians very annoyed. People really doesn't know what our party wants except that we don't want to cooperate with the Sweden Democrats.

My personal preference would be to move in the direction of the Norwegian Centre Party, although not as left-wing economically and absolutely not as critical of the European Union, obviously. Though that ship might already have sailed and the party doesn't have any choice but to fully transform into a copy of Danish Radikale instead, with the last vestiges of our rural base slowly evaporates just like it did for Radikale 20 years ago.
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Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese
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« Reply #304 on: September 14, 2022, 11:57:25 AM »

Blue Block at the last moment has now a 2-seat lead even though the margin is 0.7% in their favor. This is contrasted with the 0.9% gap and 1 seat lead from before the mail votes, so geography of their vote got better.

Do you happen to know which parties gained and lost a seat?

The Social Democrats lost, Moderates gained. There is still some counting to be done so they might be able to win it back before everything is over.
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Clarko95 📚💰📈
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« Reply #305 on: September 14, 2022, 12:30:37 PM »

Andersson concedes and will submit her resignation tomorrow
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #306 on: September 14, 2022, 12:44:46 PM »

Andersson concedes and will submit her resignation tomorrow

Strategically correct. Behave in the most dignified manner possible so as to provide a useful contrast to the mess likely to follow and to be able to sweep in as saviours of stability etc. if it comes to that, as it may very well.
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jaichind
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« Reply #307 on: September 14, 2022, 01:06:24 PM »

I wonder how long a government that needs both L and SD will last
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Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela
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« Reply #308 on: September 14, 2022, 01:20:44 PM »

Andersson concedes and will submit her resignation tomorrow

Strategically correct. Behave in the most dignified manner possible so as to provide a useful contrast to the mess likely to follow and to be able to sweep in as saviours of stability etc. if it comes to that, as it may very well.
The Party of Order.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #309 on: September 14, 2022, 01:34:42 PM »
« Edited: September 14, 2022, 02:25:00 PM by NUPES Enjoyer »

For the long-term prospects Swedish politics, it's probably better to have a razor-thin right-wing coalition of chaos shambling around for a while, giving voters a chance to come back to their senses while minimizing the risk of far-right policies being enacted. Unfortunately, this isn't happening in a vacuum, and having a party that likely got funding and support to Putin (even if now they're posturing as pro-NATO) in government isn't exactly a great sign. Of course there's a far bigger domino piece about to fall...
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President Johnson
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« Reply #310 on: September 14, 2022, 02:16:05 PM »

Andersson concedes and will submit her resignation tomorrow

Aww, this is terrible. Social Democrats came in first and even increased their vote share. It's bad when you come up short by that tiny margin in the end.

I just hope this won't change the EU's tough stance on Russia.
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Vosem
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« Reply #311 on: September 14, 2022, 02:19:07 PM »

For the long-term prospects Swedish politics, it's probably better to have a razor-thin right-wing coalition of chaos shambling around for a while, giving voter a chance to come back to their senses while minimizing the risk of far-right policies being enacted. Unfortunately, this isn't happening in a vacuum, and having a party that likely got funding and support to Putin (even if now they're posturing as pro-NATO) in government isn't exactly a great sign. Oof course there's a far bigger domino piece about to fall...

Isn't posturing as pro-NATO (and 'voting for admission' seems like much more than posturing) rather more than V is willing to do?

I think you're probably right regarding a narrow government of L and SD being more chaotic than a narrow government of C and V -- no party besides SD really has the same pattern of sloughing off a few independents every term. It's probably the case that the M government will in a few years end up relying on tactical support from C (or for that matter S) to stay in power.

(OTOH, I don't think there's a reason to think a 10-seat majority relying on L and SD would be more chaotic than a 1-seat majority relying on C and V, and -- while generational shifts can be tricky to rely on -- it seems like S is way, way weaker with the youth, while the stronger parties are M most of all, SD, and V. Probably frictions within the right are declining and within the left are growing, even if the former are much higher at present.)
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #312 on: September 14, 2022, 02:33:19 PM »

For the long-term prospects Swedish politics, it's probably better to have a razor-thin right-wing coalition of chaos shambling around for a while, giving voter a chance to come back to their senses while minimizing the risk of far-right policies being enacted. Unfortunately, this isn't happening in a vacuum, and having a party that likely got funding and support to Putin (even if now they're posturing as pro-NATO) in government isn't exactly a great sign. Oof course there's a far bigger domino piece about to fall...

Isn't posturing as pro-NATO (and 'voting for admission' seems like much more than posturing) rather more than V is willing to do?


The is definitely a divide within the European Far Right parties these days when it comes to Putin. There are those who were happy to align with his rhetoric and use Russian funds when convenient because of enemy of my enemy, but then no longer saw any value in retaining it after the War in Ukraine made that position toxic. A bit like Brexit and said parties previous position on their own EU exit referendums. These parties and Russia both kinda saw each other as useful idiots to achieve their own goals, which have now diverged. Then on the other hand you have Far-Right parties who only more happy or unwilling to fully abandon Pro-Russia positions after the Invasion, because that is a key plank of who they are. AfD is the prime example of the latter, but this divide is one of the many divides presently playing out between Salvini and FdI.
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crals
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« Reply #313 on: September 14, 2022, 03:15:53 PM »

But SD won't actually be in government, will it?
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windjammer
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« Reply #314 on: September 14, 2022, 03:41:32 PM »

I wonder how long a government that needs both L and SD will last
It's going to be fun indeed
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MaxQue
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« Reply #315 on: September 14, 2022, 04:55:26 PM »

But SD won't actually be in government, will it?

It shouldn't, as L won't allow it.
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jaichind
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« Reply #316 on: September 14, 2022, 04:59:22 PM »

But SD won't actually be in government, will it?

It shouldn't, as L won't allow it.

But would not SD ask for their pound of flesh in terms of policy for them to back a M government from the outside ?
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Clarko95 📚💰📈
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« Reply #317 on: September 14, 2022, 05:08:38 PM »

But SD won't actually be in government, will it?

It shouldn't, as L won't allow it.

But would not SD ask for their pound of flesh in terms of policy for them to back a M government from the outside ?

Yes, which L also promises to block. Hence something needs to give. Either L caves completely or SD accepts being merely a crutch for Alliansen politics. Or alternatively this entire charade collapses and either S and M work out a deal or we get new elections
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njwes
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« Reply #318 on: September 14, 2022, 05:26:40 PM »

But SD won't actually be in government, will it?

It shouldn't, as L won't allow it.

But would not SD ask for their pound of flesh in terms of policy for them to back a M government from the outside ?

Yes, which L also promises to block. Hence something needs to give. Either L caves completely or SD accepts being merely a crutch for Alliansen politics. Or alternatively this entire charade collapses and either S and M work out a deal or we get new elections

Would an S + M government be workable? Do they have much common ground to build on? (Though thinking about it, just dealing with one other party may seem more appealing for both than herding a ton of pissy smaller parties)
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Mike88
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« Reply #319 on: September 14, 2022, 06:23:28 PM »

But SD won't actually be in government, will it?

It shouldn't, as L won't allow it.

But would not SD ask for their pound of flesh in terms of policy for them to back a M government from the outside ?

Yes, which L also promises to block. Hence something needs to give. Either L caves completely or SD accepts being merely a crutch for Alliansen politics. Or alternatively this entire charade collapses and either S and M work out a deal or we get new elections

Or, Sweden, like it was raised here in this thread, follows, again, the Danish path and SD totally colapses in the next election. Who knows at this point. All scenarios seem to be open.
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Secretary of State Liberal Hack
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« Reply #320 on: September 14, 2022, 07:06:27 PM »

Couldn't you have a Social Democrat  minority Goverment with every issue being decided with it's own unique coallation ? It seems possibly more stable than a right-bloc goverment.
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Aurelius
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« Reply #321 on: September 14, 2022, 10:38:30 PM »

If L is gonna refuse to join a government that includes SD, then couldn't SD + M + KD form a minority government and simply dare L to vote against their own policy priorities purely out of spite against SD? This sure does seem like a case of the tail wagging the dog.
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Lurker
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« Reply #322 on: September 15, 2022, 01:48:19 AM »

Couldn't you have a Social Democrat  minority Goverment with every issue being decided with it's own unique coallation ? It seems possibly more stable than a right-bloc goverment.

No, as the right would never allow it. They obviously prefer being in government to not being so, and their base would hate them for it if they allowed the Social Democrats to remain in power.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #323 on: September 15, 2022, 03:52:12 AM »

No, as the right would never allow it. They obviously prefer being in government to not being so, and their base would hate them for it if they allowed the Social Democrats to remain in power.

The allure of ministerial cars is what it is. But, yes, fundamentally they have made their bed and will now have to lie in it, no matter how uncomfortable.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #324 on: September 15, 2022, 03:53:03 AM »

Would an S + M government be workable? Do they have much common ground to build on? (Though thinking about it, just dealing with one other party may seem more appealing for both than herding a ton of pissy smaller parties)

Relations between the two are more like relations between Labour and the Tories in Britain than between the SPD and the CDU-CSU in Germany.
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