Sweden election 2022
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Author Topic: Sweden election 2022  (Read 31666 times)
Vosem
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« Reply #275 on: September 13, 2022, 08:51:34 AM »


A very long time ago they tended to lean right (having changed the result in 1979 from a left-wing victory to a right-wing one). I'm not sure about more recent elections, though.
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Clarko95 📚💰📈
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« Reply #276 on: September 13, 2022, 10:58:44 AM »
« Edited: September 18, 2022, 01:31:43 PM by Clarko95 📚💰📈 »

Many thanks to our friends over at Europe Elects for these maps:



It looks pretty similar to the 2010 maps, but you can see the important shifts at the regional level:




In 2010, the municipalities of Stockholm, Gothenburg, and Malmö all voted for the Alliance, while regions such as Södermanland and Dalarna voted Red-Green. This year, the cities flipped red and the regions flipped blue.
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It’s so Joever
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« Reply #277 on: September 13, 2022, 11:04:30 AM »

So this is almost Swedish 2016?
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Clarko95 📚💰📈
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« Reply #278 on: September 13, 2022, 11:28:33 AM »
« Edited: January 09, 2023, 05:30:29 PM by Clarko95 📚💰📈 »


Not many parallels other than "left lead by blonde-haired, blue-eyed woman narrowly loses due to trends". This wasn't entirely unexpected or surprising either
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Logical
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« Reply #279 on: September 13, 2022, 11:59:50 AM »

Will Magda retire or will she stay on as leader if the result is confirmed?
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Clarko95 📚💰📈
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« Reply #280 on: September 13, 2022, 12:07:26 PM »

Will Magda retire or will she stay on as leader if the result is confirmed?

Almost certainly stay as leader. She is very popular both within the party and outside of it, and only lost the election by the skin of her teeth due to coalition partners losing while S gained, and started out in a fragile position with a 1 seat majority after 8 years of S-led governments that were chaotic.

Likely she will lead S into opposition and negotiate issues such as energy, NATO, and perhaps even budget issues with a Kristersson government where they can find agreement. She is an intelligent and knowledgeable politician who could easily lead another government in the future.

The arguments against her aren't that strong, and even so, not sure who would take over from her in the event she resigns. If she wants to stay on, there's no one standing in her way.
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Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese
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« Reply #281 on: September 13, 2022, 12:16:21 PM »


They have usually tended to be good for the Moderates and Greens. This is mostly thanks to Swedish citizens voting from abroad often tend to be well-off educated middle-class types. But with the Social Democrats gains among that very demographic this time around, it's hard to tell how it'll play out this time. 
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Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese
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« Reply #282 on: September 13, 2022, 12:24:59 PM »

Some very specific questions to our Swedes:

1. Why is SD so strong in Dalarna compared to surrounding regions?
2. What's the deal with Gotland? Left-wing overperformance, SD weak, etc.
3. What would be a good explanation for SD's relative weakness in Västerbotten (also compared to Norrbotten)?

I'm afraid that I don't really have any good answers to these questions.

I have also wondered why SD does so poorly on Gotland, considering how well they do in other rural areas. If you find out, please tell me.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #283 on: September 13, 2022, 12:26:48 PM »

Some very specific questions to our Swedes:

1. Why is SD so strong in Dalarna compared to surrounding regions?
2. What's the deal with Gotland? Left-wing overperformance, SD weak, etc.
3. What would be a good explanation for SD's relative weakness in Västerbotten (also compared to Norrbotten)?

I'm afraid that I don't really have any good answers to these questions.

I have also wondered why SD does so poorly on Gotland, considering how well they do in other rural areas. If you find out, please tell me.

I mean C historically has strong ties and a loyal base on Gotland - them aligning with S this time partially explains the block's overperformance.
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Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese
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« Reply #284 on: September 13, 2022, 12:50:00 PM »

Some very specific questions to our Swedes:

1. Why is SD so strong in Dalarna compared to surrounding regions?
2. What's the deal with Gotland? Left-wing overperformance, SD weak, etc.
3. What would be a good explanation for SD's relative weakness in Västerbotten (also compared to Norrbotten)?

I'm afraid that I don't really have any good answers to these questions.

I have also wondered why SD does so poorly on Gotland, considering how well they do in other rural areas. If you find out, please tell me.

I mean C historically has strong ties and a loyal base on Gotland - them aligning with S this time partially explains the block's overperformance.

Well yes, that part is very easy to explain. It's more the weakness of the Sweden Democrats that perplexes me.
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DL
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« Reply #285 on: September 13, 2022, 12:57:57 PM »


They have usually tended to be good for the Moderates and Greens. This is mostly thanks to Swedish citizens voting from abroad often tend to be well-off educated middle-class types. But with the Social Democrats gains among that very demographic this time around, it's hard to tell how it'll play out this time. 

Given the makeup of Swedish citizens voting from abroad, they will likely skew heavily against the SDs so its not inconceivable that maybe M gains a seat but it comes from SD and that leaves the two blocs still at 175-174
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #286 on: September 13, 2022, 01:03:38 PM »

Some very specific questions to our Swedes:

1. Why is SD so strong in Dalarna compared to surrounding regions?
2. What's the deal with Gotland? Left-wing overperformance, SD weak, etc.
3. What would be a good explanation for SD's relative weakness in Västerbotten (also compared to Norrbotten)?

I'm afraid that I don't really have any good answers to these questions.

I have also wondered why SD does so poorly on Gotland, considering how well they do in other rural areas. If you find out, please tell me.

I mean C historically has strong ties and a loyal base on Gotland - them aligning with S this time partially explains the block's overperformance.

Well yes, that part is very easy to explain. It's more the weakness of the Sweden Democrats that perplexes me.

Are there maybe just not a meaningful number of immigrants in Gotland? I can see why residents of an isolated island might feel immigration and perceived related crime on the mainland are less of an issue to them than even other rural areas with few immigrants in the same country, thus making SD uniquely less appealing.
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Clarko95 📚💰📈
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« Reply #287 on: September 13, 2022, 02:04:54 PM »

Some very specific questions to our Swedes:

1. Why is SD so strong in Dalarna compared to surrounding regions?
2. What's the deal with Gotland? Left-wing overperformance, SD weak, etc.
3. What would be a good explanation for SD's relative weakness in Västerbotten (also compared to Norrbotten)?

I'm afraid that I don't really have any good answers to these questions.

I have also wondered why SD does so poorly on Gotland, considering how well they do in other rural areas. If you find out, please tell me.

I mean C historically has strong ties and a loyal base on Gotland - them aligning with S this time partially explains the block's overperformance.

Well yes, that part is very easy to explain. It's more the weakness of the Sweden Democrats that perplexes me.

Are there maybe just not a meaningful number of immigrants in Gotland? I can see why residents of an isolated island might feel immigration and perceived related crime on the mainland are less of an issue to them than even other rural areas with few immigrants in the same country, thus making SD uniquely less appealing.

That could indeed be it, I would also add a sort of genetic liberalism from being an island whose economy is based on trade and tourism which means their liberalism is more a left-liberal flavor. I would also say that there is a Centre-milieu effect, where there is strong social pressure to vote C (similar to left-politics in northern Sweden or voting CDU in southern Germany), because everyone you know votes the same way and that's all you've really known.

As for Dalarna, I would assume an economic argument similar to other parts of west-central Sweden, where industry and forestry play a role, and the associated deindustrialization play a role in people voting for SD more out of protest rather than ideological right-wing beliefs. Dalarna giving about 26% of the vote to SD is not radically different from neighboring regions that gave SD 22-25%.

As always I am fascinated by Västerbotten randomly being so weak for the right and so strong for the left.
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DL
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« Reply #288 on: September 13, 2022, 02:15:30 PM »

Some very specific questions to our Swedes:

1. Why is SD so strong in Dalarna compared to surrounding regions?
2. What's the deal with Gotland? Left-wing overperformance, SD weak, etc.
3. What would be a good explanation for SD's relative weakness in Västerbotten (also compared to Norrbotten)?

I'm afraid that I don't really have any good answers to these questions.

I have also wondered why SD does so poorly on Gotland, considering how well they do in other rural areas. If you find out, please tell me.

I mean C historically has strong ties and a loyal base on Gotland - them aligning with S this time partially explains the block's overperformance.

Well yes, that part is very easy to explain. It's more the weakness of the Sweden Democrats that perplexes me.

Are there maybe just not a meaningful number of immigrants in Gotland? I can see why residents of an isolated island might feel immigration and perceived related crime on the mainland are less of an issue to them than even other rural areas with few immigrants in the same country, thus making SD uniquely less appealing.

That being said, there is a common phenomenon of anti-immigrant parties doing really well in rural backwaters that have zero immigrants. LePen doesnt get votes in Paris or Lyons where there are tons of immigrants. She does well in rural backwaters that no immigrant would ever want to move to in the first place since there are no jobs! To make a Canadian analogy i suspect the political attitudes on Gotland and likely more like Prince Edward Island (very small l liberal with a big Green party) and like like rightwing rural Ontario
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Keep Calm and ...
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« Reply #289 on: September 13, 2022, 02:26:28 PM »


From theLocal.se:

FACT CHECK: Do late-counted votes skew right-wing in Sweden?

Since Sweden woke up to the possibility of a new government on Monday, many have claimed that the remaining votes to be counted on Wednesday will skew to the right-wing parties. But is this actually true?
...


https://www.thelocal.se/20220913/fact-check-do-late-counted-wednesday-votes-skew-right-wing-in-sweden/
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #290 on: September 13, 2022, 04:06:26 PM »
« Edited: September 13, 2022, 04:11:23 PM by Tintrlvr »

Some very specific questions to our Swedes:

1. Why is SD so strong in Dalarna compared to surrounding regions?
2. What's the deal with Gotland? Left-wing overperformance, SD weak, etc.
3. What would be a good explanation for SD's relative weakness in Västerbotten (also compared to Norrbotten)?

I'm afraid that I don't really have any good answers to these questions.

I have also wondered why SD does so poorly on Gotland, considering how well they do in other rural areas. If you find out, please tell me.

I mean C historically has strong ties and a loyal base on Gotland - them aligning with S this time partially explains the block's overperformance.

Well yes, that part is very easy to explain. It's more the weakness of the Sweden Democrats that perplexes me.

Are there maybe just not a meaningful number of immigrants in Gotland? I can see why residents of an isolated island might feel immigration and perceived related crime on the mainland are less of an issue to them than even other rural areas with few immigrants in the same country, thus making SD uniquely less appealing.

That being said, there is a common phenomenon of anti-immigrant parties doing really well in rural backwaters that have zero immigrants. LePen doesnt get votes in Paris or Lyons where there are tons of immigrants. She does well in rural backwaters that no immigrant would ever want to move to in the first place since there are no jobs! To make a Canadian analogy i suspect the political attitudes on Gotland and likely more like Prince Edward Island (very small l liberal with a big Green party) and like like rightwing rural Ontario

I agree, but Gotland and PEI have a lot more in common geographically, too! (And at least PEI has a bridge to the mainlnd; maybe Newfoundland is more apt.) The point being that rural areas in the mainland fear immigrants will move there or otherwise fear the perceived decline of adjoining urban/suburban areas, but rural areas that are truly isolated, especially islands accessible only by ferry or plane, feel the perceived problems of the mainland ostensibly created by immigrants are much more removed from their day-to-day existence, including by the psychological barrier created by physical isolation. And it probably is true that immigrants are more likely to move to, say, Borlange than to Visby, even if both have low immigrant populations now.

I think social cohesion is probably higher on isolated islands, too. SD may lay claim to a lot of traditional values, but ultimately they are drawing votes from people who are disaffected by the decline of socially cohesive institutions, not people who still feel a strong communal connection.
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Clarko95 📚💰📈
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« Reply #291 on: September 14, 2022, 12:48:54 AM »

Election Authority flagged that the preliminary Riksdag results will be reported this evening, and regional and municipal election will be reported on Thursday

100% official results are due two weeks after the election, so around the 25th
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parochial boy
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« Reply #292 on: September 14, 2022, 02:44:18 AM »
« Edited: September 14, 2022, 03:23:41 AM by parochial boy »

Some very specific questions to our Swedes:

1. Why is SD so strong in Dalarna compared to surrounding regions?
2. What's the deal with Gotland? Left-wing overperformance, SD weak, etc.
3. What would be a good explanation for SD's relative weakness in Västerbotten (also compared to Norrbotten)?

I'm afraid that I don't really have any good answers to these questions.

I have also wondered why SD does so poorly on Gotland, considering how well they do in other rural areas. If you find out, please tell me.

I mean C historically has strong ties and a loyal base on Gotland - them aligning with S this time partially explains the block's overperformance.

Well yes, that part is very easy to explain. It's more the weakness of the Sweden Democrats that perplexes me.

Are there maybe just not a meaningful number of immigrants in Gotland? I can see why residents of an isolated island might feel immigration and perceived related crime on the mainland are less of an issue to them than even other rural areas with few immigrants in the same country, thus making SD uniquely less appealing.

That being said, there is a common phenomenon of anti-immigrant parties doing really well in rural backwaters that have zero immigrants. LePen doesnt get votes in Paris or Lyons where there are tons of immigrants. She does well in rural backwaters that no immigrant would ever want to move to in the first place since there are no jobs! To make a Canadian analogy i suspect the political attitudes on Gotland and likely more like Prince Edward Island (very small l liberal with a big Green party) and like like rightwing rural Ontario

I agree, but Gotland and PEI have a lot more in common geographically, too! (And at least PEI has a bridge to the mainlnd; maybe Newfoundland is more apt.) The point being that rural areas in the mainland fear immigrants will move there or otherwise fear the perceived decline of adjoining urban/suburban areas, but rural areas that are truly isolated, especially islands accessible only by ferry or plane, feel the perceived problems of the mainland ostensibly created by immigrants are much more removed from their day-to-day existence, including by the psychological barrier created by physical isolation. And it probably is true that immigrants are more likely to move to, say, Borlange than to Visby, even if both have low immigrant populations now.

I think social cohesion is probably higher on isolated islands, too. SD may lay claim to a lot of traditional values, but ultimately they are drawing votes from people who are disaffected by the decline of socially cohesive institutions, not people who still feel a strong communal connection.

Yeah, adding to this point, while Le Pen's best scores may be in rural areas with relatively few immigrants, it is worth pointing that her strongest regions are still the ones in the North and East that do have higher immigrant populations. Meaning that even in those rural areas there is still a closer perception of the existence of migrant communities. Le Pen's weakest regions over all remain that ones in the West of France (Brittany etc..) that have the least immigration overall. And as you say, and probably even more importantly, are the ones where the sorts of social networks and structures and sense of community still exist as a bulwark against the far right.

I have no idea to what degree this plays in Gotland, but it wouldn't surprise me if that in combination with Clarko's earlier points about tourism all contribute. Especially if you figure that the milder sunnier weather, various summer events all probably make it the sort of desirable place to live that often tends to play against the success of RWPPs.
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Clarko95 📚💰📈
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« Reply #293 on: September 14, 2022, 08:29:27 AM »
« Edited: September 14, 2022, 09:34:48 AM by Clarko95 📚💰📈 »

Getting close to the preliminary results, doesn't look like anything will change. The Andersson bloc lost 0.1% and now it stands at 49.7% Kristersson - 48.9% Andersson, and 175 - 174. Counting is on track to be finished this evening.

SD apparently demanded to take over M's parliamentary office in the Skandiahuset and also its offices in the Riksdag building, which traditionally to the second largest party. M apparently is very sour about this request and the property manager of the government building has been evasive ("It's not just determined on size, but other things as well"), probably to avoid stirring controversy until the parties work it out themselves.

The chairwoman of the Liberal Youth wing, who has been elected to the Riksdag from Stockholm County, has promised she will personally vote to bring down any government that includes SD. She didn't say anything about confidence & supply, however. Her promise to drive through radical climate policy also stands in conflict with SD + M + KD. Separately, members of L reacted strongly to SD candidate Björn Söder accusing SVT of spreading propaganda and demand for reform of the public broadcasting service when they interviewed a member of the Swedish Committee Against Anti-Semitism who expressed concerns about SD's victory.

S is worried about the news of demands that Annie Lööf resign, as well as the party secretary, and that they could be replaced with a leader who is more pro-blue bloc (or at least not as stridently anti-SD). Speaking of Lööf, another death threat was delivered to her via a handwritten note in the party's postbox.

The M party leader and mayor of Stockholm city, Anna König Jerlmyr, resigns, saying she cannot enjoy being in opposition again. She was previously leader of the opposition from 2014 to 2018 and mayor since 2018
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crals
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« Reply #294 on: September 14, 2022, 08:53:02 AM »

How likely is it that C switches sides under a new leader? This 1-seat majority depending on both left-Liberals and possible future ex-SD MPs is obviously not going to last very long.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #295 on: September 14, 2022, 08:57:13 AM »

How likely is it that C switches sides under a new leader? This 1-seat majority depending on both left-Liberals and possible future ex-SD MPs is obviously not going to last very long.

Given how the party has reacted to the distribution of their results, losing their long tern rural voters but holding/gaining urban voters who likely were former Liberals & Moderates, a leader that's more pro-Blue Block doesn't seem too unlikely. Future parliamentary machinations though will determine if they do switch, what conditions would be applied in that situation, and what will be the relationship with SD.
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« Reply #296 on: September 14, 2022, 10:32:57 AM »

Seems like it might make a lot of sense for the Blue Bloc to kick out the Liberals and bring in the Cs, no? Pad the majority and get rid of a group of MPs who seem particularly insufferable
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DL
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« Reply #297 on: September 14, 2022, 10:47:55 AM »

Seems like it might make a lot of sense for the Blue Bloc to kick out the Liberals and bring in the Cs, no? Pad the majority and get rid of a group of MPs who seem particularly insufferable

I'm no expert on Swedish politics but i would imagine that since C ran on such a very explicitly anti-SD platform in this election, many (if not most) C Riksdag members would also be very averse to supporting a government that involves the neo-Nazi party and might also rebel
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« Reply #298 on: September 14, 2022, 11:19:34 AM »
« Edited: September 15, 2022, 06:37:18 AM by Clarko95 📚💰📈 »

Did the math and the 2018 results were:

49.3% Andersson - 49.1% Kristersson

Right now it's 49.5% Kristersson- 48.9% Andersson with the final results due any minute

So right gains 0.4% and left loses 0.4% compared to 2018. Shows how polarized Sweden is and how these last two elections have been a knife fight
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #299 on: September 14, 2022, 11:25:22 AM »

Blue Block at the last moment has now a 2-seat lead even though the margin is 0.7% in their favor. This is contrasted with the 0.9% gap and 1 seat lead from before the mail votes, so geography of their vote got better.
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