Sweden election 2022

[Oryxslayer]

Anyway, up until Löfven quit I expected the SAP to be absolutely pulped in this election just on pure 'don't they look tired' grounds, so I suppose against that backdrop Andersson holding the right to 175-174 or whatever is pretty good even if it's not what I let myself hope for.

It looks like Andersson mostly gained voters from her coalition partners.

I mean this is sort of "typical" it seems for S, cause at the national level a lot of the voters who are voters for the Social Democratic coalition parties are 'loaned' to protect from the threshold. This is a new phenomenon for C, but it still also occurred. So whenever those parties are safe, voters return to the electoral flagship.

Obviously locally there are actual strongholds which make MP, V, and others major local parties in various regions, so the phenomenon is less relevant.

[Oryxslayer]

Back to one-seat rather than two gap at the moment.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

Aftonbladet has a neat election map, all the way down to precinct level.

Thanks for posting this, cool map!

Now I'm curious why The Left / V does so well in downtown Malmö... They get upwards of 45% in some places which is completely out of sync with other urban Swedish areas.

[Oryxslayer]

Aftonbladet has a neat election map, all the way down to precinct level.

Thanks for posting this, cool map!

Now I'm curious why The Left / V does so well in downtown Malmö... They get upwards of 45% in some places which is completely out of sync with other urban Swedish areas.

Immigrant communities.

[The Lord Marbury]

Aftonbladet has a neat election map, all the way down to precinct level.

Thanks for posting this, cool map!

Now I'm curious why The Left / V does so well in downtown Malmö... They get upwards of 45% in some places which is completely out of sync with other urban Swedish areas.

They always get a lot of votes from young urban progressives. In Malmö those votes would be coming from the Möllevången area, in Gothenburg it's Majorna and in Stockholm it's Södermalm.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

So, what happens now? You may ask

The newly elected Riksdag will convene on September 26th

Two scenarios for how the government formation process will go:

1. Andersson submits her resignation in the next few days and the Speaker of Parliament could invite the party leaders for talks even before the 26th

2. We do what happened in 2018: Andersson does not resign immediately, and will then be subject to a vote of confidence on the 26th. If she doesn't pass, this begins the government formation process like in 2018, with a maximum of four rounds before a mandatory extra election



SVT estimates between 200k-250k absentees outstanding, counting of which will continue through Wednesday. M is actually the party closest to getting an additional mandate, so it could go back to 176-173

SD is demanding negotiations for ministerial positions and even Speaker of the Riksdag, L immediately says no to SD in government.

For-profit education companies' shares rose this morning on the stock market on the election result (yay populism!)

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Sweden is a very weird place. Normally the far left- such as in Norway- is apathetic about anti-Semitism and oppose refugee integration. But in Sweden even Nyans has a page on their website condemning anti-Semitism and talking about their plans to fight it.

[If my soul was made of stone]

For-profit education companies' shares rose this morning on the stock market on the election result (yay populism!)

Specters of Marx, is that you?

[crals]

Sweden is a very weird place. Normally the far left- such as in Norway- is apathetic about anti-Semitism and oppose refugee integration. But in Sweden even Nyans has a page on their website condemning anti-Semitism and talking about their plans to fight it.

I don't think Sweden is the weird one there

[Antonio the Sixth]

Well, this is bad. Truly a rotten streak of elections around the world lately, and we know this is just the warm-up for Italy. Hopefully Brazil will be the circuit breaker.

SVT estimates between 200k-250k absentees outstanding, counting of which will continue through Wednesday. M is actually the party closest to getting an additional mandate, so it could go back to 176-173

Do absentees usually lean one way or the other in Sweden?

[omar04]

Tool showing how voters shifted from 2018 to 2022

https://www.svt.se/datajournalistik/valu2022/valjarstrommar/

[If my soul was made of stone]

Tool showing how voters shifted from 2018 to 2022

https://www.svt.se/datajournalistik/valu2022/valjarstrommar/

I want to have a chat with the 5% of 2018 SD voters who switched to M this time. Based kings fighting the long defeat against totalizing #trendz

[Alcibiades]

It was clear from looking at the commune-level results that there were a good deal of #trendz this election, and that’s confirmed by this exit poll. To summarise (brackets show changes from 2018):

White-collar workers:
S: 32% (+3)
M: 21% (-1)
SD: 15% (+3)

Blue-collar workers:
S: 32% (-2)
SD: 29% (+5)
M: 14% (-)

Self-employed and farmers:
M: 25% (-4)
SD: 24% (+1)
S: 19% (+6)

What’s very striking is that the SAP’s share among working class voters has declined at every election since 2002, when it stood at 50%, meaning there’s been a decline of almost 40% over those 20 years.

[DL]

What is the "raison d'etre" of the Liberals in Sweden? What do they stand for that isn't already amply covered either by the Centre Party or the Moderates?

At one time they billed themselves as a socially liberal middle of the road party that would appeal to teachers and intellectuals - but now they have decided to support a government dependent on and at the beck and call of the neo-Nazis in SD - so they are now basically identical to the Moderates. Why do they exist at all?

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Also seems there was a good deal of SD national/S regional ticket splitting when comparing regional results to the national results. In many regions, the difference between SD's and S's national and regional performances are strongly correlated to each other. Obviously not perfectly 1:1, but a large number of SD voters at the national election voted S for regional governments.

This is rather embarrassing for S because it means that they are indeed losing a good number of voters who otherwise are left on welfare state issues across the country (esp. western and southern Sweden). However, it also means that if SD forms a right-wing government and accedes to right-wing economic policies, they could lose a chunk of their voters right back to S.

If you sum up all the regional votes across Sweden and apply national coalitions to said results, you get a comfortable victory for the Andersson coalition, and even subtracting out C shows that the Red-Greens outperform their national result at the regional level:



The results do even out a bit at the national level, but if you look at regions like Dalarna, Scania, Kalmar, Västerbotten, etc. then the pattern is visible

[Oryxslayer]

What is the "raison d'etre" of the Liberals in Sweden? What do they stand for that isn't already amply covered either by the Centre Party or the Moderates?

At one time they billed themselves as a socially liberal middle of the road party that would appeal to teachers and intellectuals - but now they have decided to support a government dependent on and at the beck and call of the neo-Nazis in SD - so they are now basically identical to the Moderates. Why do they exist at all?

The impression I get is still kinda serving that very small base of those too progressive for any other Right party, to fiscally conservative for C or M. But the real reason for existing still is to just get over the threshold. The right as a whole can't see them waste 2% of the vote, as polls during the off-season these days say, so voters act tactically.

[omar04]

What is the "raison d'etre" of the Liberals in Sweden? What do they stand for that isn't already amply covered either by the Centre Party or the Moderates?

At one time they billed themselves as a socially liberal middle of the road party that would appeal to teachers and intellectuals - but now they have decided to support a government dependent on and at the beck and call of the neo-Nazis in SD - so they are now basically identical to the Moderates. Why do they exist at all?

Well for the reasons you describe it's plausible at least one or two of their MPs defect, depriving the right of their majority. The SD could also have a few MPs be expelled or leave the party.

[Oryxslayer]

Arguably the most #Trends results map Sweden has ever had. A sea of blue across the south, except when there is a city.

[Helsinkian]

Among voters aged 18-21: M 26, SD 22, S 19.

https://twitter.com/indubioproreto/status/1569159936919371777

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It was clear from looking at the commune-level results that there were a good deal of #trendz this election, and that’s confirmed by this exit poll. To summarise (brackets show changes from 2018):

White-collar workers:
S: 32% (+3)
M: 21% (-1)
SD: 15% (+3)

Blue-collar workers:
S: 32% (-2)
SD: 29% (+5)
M: 14% (-)

Self-employed and farmers:
M: 25% (-4)
SD: 24% (+1)
S: 19% (+6)

What’s very striking is that the SAP’s share among working class voters has declined at every election since 2002, when it stood at 50%, meaning there’s been a decline of almost 40% over those 20 years.

You do have to be a little careful when the differences between elections are quite small: an apparent shift of one or two points may not be 'real'. Another issue is that voting patterns are less uniform than in Swedish elections a couple of decades ago - there are differences between how comparable groups of people vote in Scania and (say) the north of the country that weren't an issue once. But in general I would say that, as is always the case with #trendz, a lot of it comes down to choices made by political actors (a point rather neatly confirmed by the comparisons to the regional election results as it happens). In this case the only actors to benefit are the SDs which is why it is a little mad that everyone else has played along, but no one ever said that politicians are an especially bright bunch as a whole.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The thing I'll add again is that the two 'blocks' are really not at all natural, even if they represent the present political reality.

[crals]

MP doing worse than average among the young is rather shocking, especially in Greta's country. I guess they are seen as an appendix to S at this point?

[njwes]

MP doing worse than average among the young is rather shocking, especially in Greta's country. I guess they are seen as an appendix to S at this point?

I mean, Greta is an *extremely* offputting autistic and sanctimonious holier-than-thou screecher. I've never met or spoken to anybody younger who finds her at all appealing who wouldn't already have voted for a far-left or left-green party--often incredibly misanthropic self-declared "socialist" types.*

I think her appeal lies more among Boomers who like being yelled at and want to "atone". I'm sure many Swedes find it annoying that Greta is seen as somehow emblematic of their country


*Less common IRL but very common on the Elections forums 

[Oryxslayer]

Among voters aged 18-21: M 26, SD 22, S 19.

I mean its well documented that in western European multiparty systems the blocks are evolving, often to the detriment of traditional right and left parties. This means that there are often large age gaps between those preferred by the old and the young. Greens, Libertarian/Liberals, Socialist Radicals, populists, and many more if the system allows for them like in the Netherlands.

The most recognizable reasons for this are the evolution of issue preferences and modes of socialization. The internet has allowed people to better judge the viability of small parties allowed those small parties to reach their targeted audience. Instant communication also allows for socialization across large distances and to more focused communities. This differs from the pre-internet days when socialization was more local and driven by community networks. In the Netherlands this old mode had a name, pillarization, because the social connections between the pillars of society rarely intermingled. But you were still more likely in every country to align with the party of your local church, paper, union, club, because contrasting views were harder to come by.

Its rather unique in Sweden that the formerly near-absolute strength of the Social Democrats means that they are the only party who noticeably falls victim to this trend, whereas in other countries usually a mirroring party of the right also suffers from this trend.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

MP doing worse than average among the young is rather shocking, especially in Greta's country. I guess they are seen as an appendix to S at this point?

They're not seen as a serious party, I think is the thing. A large proportion of the people who vote for them see it as a necessary evil and probably wouldn't if there weren't the risk of them dropping below 4% and thus putting the right in power on a technicality.