Sweden election 2022

[DavidB.]

So the right is really going to win? Despite the polls I never expected that, considering Magda's approvals. S's campaign must have been truly abysmal.

S is actually overperforming. It's MP, C and mostly V who are underperforming.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

At this point, I believe my initial feelings that the right will win will be correct.

Let that be a lesson to the left that if you abandon all of your strengths and compete on right-wing turf, you will lose. You can call your opponents racists all day, but you also have to offer something more than just that. And you can't just take the votes of immigrants for granted and think they'll be okay with you throwing them under the bus.

Anyways, if it's a 175-174 conservative victory, that's good because it is basically an unworkable majority. SD will demand government participation, which L won't allow, in which case SD will demand huge concessions, which L will also not be happy with. There will be the perpetual risk of just one L MP either defecting outright or voting down laws and perhaps even the government. Probably the best loss scenario.

Another fun 4 years awaits us!


(On the plus side, looks super good for us in Solna, Stockholm city, and Stockholm County)

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

What kind of concessions is SD going to demand from a right goverment ?

[Mike88]

So the right is really going to win? Despite the polls I never expected that, considering Magda's approvals. S's campaign must have been truly abysmal.

From what I've read here, it wasn't abysmal, but it wasn't fantastic either but they were still able to grow a bit. The Moderates, on the other hand, indeed had a abysmal campaign and despite polling third, were still able to win 19% of the votes and the keys for the Prime Ministership.

This election has Denmark 2015 vibes...

[omar04]

Nyans might have taken enough S votes to secure a majority for the right

https://twitter.com/Nassreddin2002/status/1569075194303586305

But if S did not push the line that they will get tough on crime they will lose more votes to the Right-wing bloc.

Yes, but they probably went too far in their rhetoric. In general S ran a poor electoral campaign

[Oryxslayer]

So the right is really going to win? Despite the polls I never expected that, considering Magda's approvals. S's campaign must have been truly abysmal.

At the moment tis looks to be the case, maybe a majority of 2 if the Right Block is lucky. But as we all knew going in, if voters returned another narrow majority either way it would have problems with C and V or SD and L. If S's block won then there was talk of them initially exploring other more numerous options, but unless the blocks break in some fashion then the Right will no doubt try to use their advantage of 1.

However this all still doesn't change the arithmetic we new from the outset, that a different option will be needed if either block pursues their pre-election government and it inevitably is unable to leverage much though a single seat. 

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I wouldn't exaggerate the importance of a fringe party that polled a tiny share nationally just because it polled solid percentages in some polling districts prone to very low turnouts.

The Moderates, on the other hand, indeed had a abysmal campaign and despite polling third, were still able to win 19% of the votes and the keys for the Prime Ministership.

Which isn't very healthy and is unlikely to work out terribly well for them, or for political stability generally. This would be a catastrophically weak government with essentially only a negative mandate.

[Oryxslayer]

So the right is really going to win? Despite the polls I never expected that, considering Magda's approvals. S's campaign must have been truly abysmal.

From what I've read here, it wasn't abysmal, but it wasn't fantastic either but they were still able to grow a bit. The Moderates, on the other hand, indeed had a abysmal campaign and despite polling third, were still able to win 19% of the votes and the keys for the Prime Ministership.

This election has Denmark 2015 vibes...

What was that someone said yesterday...that Swedish politics are basically Danish politics ten years later and dumber?

[Mike88]

The Moderates, on the other hand, indeed had a abysmal campaign and despite polling third, were still able to win 19% of the votes and the keys for the Prime Ministership.

Which isn't very healthy and is unlikely to work out terribly well for them, or for political stability generally. This would be a catastrophically weak government with essentially only a negative mandate.

No question, it will be a very weak government, with probably a lot of tensions. Like Clarko95 said, another "4 years of fun". :/

[DavidB.]

Projected right-wing majority is now 2.

[Mike88]

Interesting that the most depressed election night parties seem to be V, S and M, especially M.

[DavidB.]

I think bloc politics in Sweden has run its course. The differences within the blocs seem bigger than those between them. If the right end up winning a majority, I wouldn't be surprised if L were to pull the plug quite quickly and S and M come to an agreement for the remainder of the term.

[Helsinkian]

Some early votes are not counted until wednesday, correct? How many votes are those? Is it enough to change the election's outcome?

[H. Ross Peron]

Men voted 56% for the right bloc and 43% for the left bloc.

https://mobile.twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1569063423589187585

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Some early votes are not counted until wednesday, correct? How many votes are those? Is it enough to change the election's outcome?

Early votes are suppose to be counted tonight.

The votes that are not counted tonight is the vote from abroad and people who voted today but not in their own precinct. (If you're in Stockholm over the weekend but live in Malmö, you're allowed to vote from there but your vote will then be transported back to your home municipality and counted there).

Those votes are counted on Wednesday. In the 1979 election (which was also very close) they decided the election in the centre-rights favour.

There is predicted to be around 200 000 such votes this election.

[DavidB.]

Aftonbladet has a neat election map, all the way down to precinct level.

[Mike88]

Projected right-wing majority is now 2.

Back to 1 seat majority.

[Mike88]

Projected right-wing majority is now 2.

Back to 1 seat majority.

Back again to a 2 seat majority. It's a ping pong race.

[Oryxslayer]

The combined right is presently doing worse in Stockholm than in Malmo, Gothenburg, and even Uppsala in case we want to pile more evidence on the pile of #trends.

[Mike88]

For those who understand Swedish: What was the content, and key points, of Andersson and Kristersson speeches?

[jaichind]

S did bounce back from 2018 in terms of vote share but is still the second worst ever result for S in a hundred years.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

If this does hold then the resulting government is not going to be a model of stability, even compared to the difficulties and drama of recent years.

The people wanted Denmark, and so they're getting it - specifically, Denmark in 2015.

[Oryxslayer]

Gap between the blocks is now 1% in favor of the right for the first time in the count.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Anyway, up until Löfven quit I expected the SAP to be absolutely pulped in this election just on pure 'don't they look tired' grounds, so I suppose against that backdrop Andersson holding the right to 175-174 or whatever is pretty good even if it's not what I let myself hope for.

[omar04]

Anyway, up until Löfven quit I expected the SAP to be absolutely pulped in this election just on pure 'don't they look tired' grounds, so I suppose against that backdrop Andersson holding the right to 175-174 or whatever is pretty good even if it's not what I let myself hope for.

It looks like Andersson mostly gained voters from her coalition partners.